Amid the US-Israel-Iran war that erupted in late February 2026, Iranian forces have executed over 20 confirmed kinetic strikes on merchant vessels in the Strait of Hormuz since early March, including a recent attack on a Panamanian-flagged tanker reported April 1, effectively halting most commercial shipping and spiking global oil risks. IRGC naval warnings of decisive responses to enemy movements sustain high disruption levels, while Houthi allies threaten parallel Red Sea closures. Traders weigh ongoing escalations—such as US bridge strikes and Iranian missile barrages—against today's UN Security Council vote on authorizing multinational naval actions to secure the strait, a potential catalyst for de-escalation or intensified confrontation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$12,013 Vol.
2026/04/30
April 1
99%
April 2
8%
April 3
25%
April 4
19%
April 5
16%
April 6
23%
April 7
32%
April 8
41%
April 9
36%
April 10
31%
$12,013 Vol.
April 1
$7,712 Vol.
99%
April 2
$3,157 Vol.
8%
April 3
$773 Vol.
25%
April 4
$11 Vol.
19%
April 5
$76 Vol.
16%
April 6
$84 Vol.
23%
April 7
$141 Vol.
32%
April 8
$0 Vol.
41%
April 9
$11 Vol.
36%
April 10
$48 Vol.
31%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the US-Israel-Iran war that erupted in late February 2026, Iranian forces have executed over 20 confirmed kinetic strikes on merchant vessels in the Strait of Hormuz since early March, including a recent attack on a Panamanian-flagged tanker reported April 1, effectively halting most commercial shipping and spiking global oil risks. IRGC naval warnings of decisive responses to enemy movements sustain high disruption levels, while Houthi allies threaten parallel Red Sea closures. Traders weigh ongoing escalations—such as US bridge strikes and Iranian missile barrages—against today's UN Security Council vote on authorizing multinational naval actions to secure the strait, a potential catalyst for de-escalation or intensified confrontation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
マーケット開始日： Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ET
音量
$12,013終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the US-Israel-Iran war that erupted in late February 2026, Iranian forces have executed over 20 confirmed kinetic strikes on merchant vessels in the Strait of Hormuz since early March, including a recent attack on a Panamanian-flagged tanker reported April 1, effectively halting most commercial shipping and spiking global oil risks. IRGC naval warnings of decisive responses to enemy movements sustain high disruption levels, while Houthi allies threaten parallel Red Sea closures. Traders weigh ongoing escalations—such as US bridge strikes and Iranian missile barrages—against today's UN Security Council vote on authorizing multinational naval actions to secure the strait, a potential catalyst for de-escalation or intensified confrontation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
音量
$12,013終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the US-Israel-Iran war that erupted in late February 2026, Iranian forces have executed over 20 confirmed kinetic strikes on merchant vessels in the Strait of Hormuz since early March, including a recent attack on a Panamanian-flagged tanker reported April 1, effectively halting most commercial shipping and spiking global oil risks. IRGC naval warnings of decisive responses to enemy movements sustain high disruption levels, while Houthi allies threaten parallel Red Sea closures. Traders weigh ongoing escalations—such as US bridge strikes and Iranian missile barrages—against today's UN Security Council vote on authorizing multinational naval actions to secure the strait, a potential catalyst for de-escalation or intensified confrontation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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