Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 10–12°C (29.1%, 25.5%, and 22.4% implied probabilities, respectively) for Toronto's highest temperature on March 26, driven by Environment and Climate Change Canada's latest forecast guidance indicating a daytime high near 11°C amid cloudy skies and light southerly winds. Ensemble model runs from GFS and ECMWF show tight agreement but minor spread due to uncertainties in cloud cover evolution and potential diurnally driven mixing, which could nudge the peak 1–2°C higher or lower. This mild outlook stems from a persistent ridge of high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes funneling warmer air northward, contrasting March climatological averages of 5–8°C. Watch for afternoon hourly observations and any updated meso-scale model outputs, as small-scale boundary layer effects often refine final maxima within 24 hours of the event.