Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Seoul's highest temperature on March 27, with implied probabilities clustered around 13–16°C at 21–22% each, driven by the Korea Meteorological Administration's (KMA) latest guidance projecting a high near 14–15°C amid variable spring conditions. Recent model runs from ECMWF and GFS ensembles show slight divergences, as mild southerly winds from the Pacific clash with residual cold air masses from Siberia, potentially capping or boosting peaks by 2–3°C depending on frontal timing. Historical March averages hover at 12–13°C, but early spring warming trends add upside risk; watch KMA's 12Z update for refined cloud cover and instability details that could tip the balance.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日3月27日のソウルの最高気温は?
3月27日のソウルの最高気温は?
16℃以上 26%
13℃ 21%
14℃ 20%
15°C 12%
$42,508 Vol.
$42,508 Vol.
6℃以下
<1%
7℃
1%
8℃
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
2%
11℃
3%
12°C
8%
13℃
21%
14℃
20%
15°C
12%
16℃以上
26%
16℃以上 26%
13℃ 21%
14℃ 20%
15°C 12%
$42,508 Vol.
$42,508 Vol.
6℃以下
<1%
7℃
1%
8℃
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
2%
11℃
3%
12°C
8%
13℃
21%
14℃
20%
15°C
12%
16℃以上
26%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 23, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Seoul's highest temperature on March 27, with implied probabilities clustered around 13–16°C at 21–22% each, driven by the Korea Meteorological Administration's (KMA) latest guidance projecting a high near 14–15°C amid variable spring conditions. Recent model runs from ECMWF and GFS ensembles show slight divergences, as mild southerly winds from the Pacific clash with residual cold air masses from Siberia, potentially capping or boosting peaks by 2–3°C depending on frontal timing. Historical March averages hover at 12–13°C, but early spring warming trends add upside risk; watch KMA's 12Z update for refined cloud cover and instability details that could tip the balance.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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