Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 13°C (24%) and 14°C (20.5%) as Seoul's highest temperature on March 27, driven by Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) forecast models showing ensemble means around 13°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge fostering mild spring conditions with light southerly winds. March 26 observations logged a max of 12°C amid clear skies, aligning with gradual diurnal warming trends, while ECMWF and GFS runs exhibit tight spread—most clustering at 13–14°C due to shallow boundary layer uncertainties in peak solar heating. Historical March highs average 11–13°C, but this week's positive temperature anomaly from weakened cold surges elevates mid-teens probabilities; KMA's hourly station data will sharpen resolution as the date unfolds, with extremes unlikely absent convective shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日3月27日のソウルの最高気温は?
3月27日のソウルの最高気温は?
13℃ 24%
14℃ 21%
12°C 16%
11℃ 10.9%
$84,740 Vol.
$84,740 Vol.
6℃以下
<1%
7℃
1%
8℃
2%
9°C
6%
10°C
10%
11℃
11%
12°C
16%
13℃
24%
14℃
21%
15°C
7%
16℃以上
9%
13℃ 24%
14℃ 21%
12°C 16%
11℃ 10.9%
$84,740 Vol.
$84,740 Vol.
6℃以下
<1%
7℃
1%
8℃
2%
9°C
6%
10°C
10%
11℃
11%
12°C
16%
13℃
24%
14℃
21%
15°C
7%
16℃以上
9%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 23, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 13°C (24%) and 14°C (20.5%) as Seoul's highest temperature on March 27, driven by Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) forecast models showing ensemble means around 13°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge fostering mild spring conditions with light southerly winds. March 26 observations logged a max of 12°C amid clear skies, aligning with gradual diurnal warming trends, while ECMWF and GFS runs exhibit tight spread—most clustering at 13–14°C due to shallow boundary layer uncertainties in peak solar heating. Historical March highs average 11–13°C, but this week's positive temperature anomaly from weakened cold surges elevates mid-teens probabilities; KMA's hourly station data will sharpen resolution as the date unfolds, with extremes unlikely absent convective shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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