The National Weather Service's latest forecast pins Miami's highest temperature on March 26 at around 82-83°F under a ridge of high pressure bringing mostly sunny skies and light southeast winds, driving trader consensus toward that bin at 49% implied probability. Ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF models updated within the last 24 hours shows peak afternoon heat in the low 80s, consistent with recent observations of 81°F highs earlier this week amid above-normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic. Odds taper for 80-81°F (26%) and 84-85°F (15%) due to model spread over sea breeze timing and minor cloudiness risks, with negligible chances for extremes given climatological March norms around 80°F and no tropical influences. Watch for the 12z model runs tomorrow, as small shifts in boundary layer mixing could refine these market-implied odds ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日3月26日のマイアミの最高気温は?
3月26日のマイアミの最高気温は?
82〜83°F 50%
80~81°F 26%
84〜85°F 15%
78~79°F 3.4%
$44,343 Vol.
$44,343 Vol.
71°F以下
<1%
72〜73°F
<1%
華氏74〜75度
<1%
76~77°F
1%
78~79°F
3%
80~81°F
26%
82〜83°F
50%
84〜85°F
15%
86~87°F
2%
88〜89°F
1%
90°F以上
<1%
82〜83°F 50%
80~81°F 26%
84〜85°F 15%
78~79°F 3.4%
$44,343 Vol.
$44,343 Vol.
71°F以下
<1%
72〜73°F
<1%
華氏74〜75度
<1%
76~77°F
1%
78~79°F
3%
80~81°F
26%
82〜83°F
50%
84〜85°F
15%
86~87°F
2%
88〜89°F
1%
90°F以上
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...The National Weather Service's latest forecast pins Miami's highest temperature on March 26 at around 82-83°F under a ridge of high pressure bringing mostly sunny skies and light southeast winds, driving trader consensus toward that bin at 49% implied probability. Ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF models updated within the last 24 hours shows peak afternoon heat in the low 80s, consistent with recent observations of 81°F highs earlier this week amid above-normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic. Odds taper for 80-81°F (26%) and 84-85°F (15%) due to model spread over sea breeze timing and minor cloudiness risks, with negligible chances for extremes given climatological March norms around 80°F and no tropical influences. Watch for the 12z model runs tomorrow, as small shifts in boundary layer mixing could refine these market-implied odds ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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