Trader consensus tilts toward a Miami high of 82-83°F (32.5% implied probability) driven by the latest NOAA and ECMWF forecast models, which cluster diurnal maximums around 82°F under a persistent high-pressure ridge fostering warm advection from the southwest. National Weather Service guidance echoes this with a forecast high near 83°F, tempered by afternoon sea-breeze moderation typical for coastal South Florida in late March. Differentiating nearby bins, 80-81°F (23%) accounts for potential enhanced onshore flow strengthening the sea breeze, while 84-85°F (19%) reflects upside risk from lighter winds or minor model warm biases seen in recent runs; historical March 23 averages hover at 80°F, but positive temperature anomalies this season nudge odds higher. Key watch: 18Z model updates today could shift ensemble spreads.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日3月23日のマイアミの最高気温は?
3月23日のマイアミの最高気温は?
82〜83°F 33%
80〜81°F 23%
84〜85°F 19%
78~79°F 16%
華氏71度以下
1%
72~73°F
<1%
74〜75°F
1%
76〜77°F
4%
78~79°F
16%
80〜81°F
23%
82〜83°F
33%
84〜85°F
19%
86~87°F
5%
88〜89°F
3%
90°F以上
<1%
82〜83°F 33%
80〜81°F 23%
84〜85°F 19%
78~79°F 16%
華氏71度以下
1%
72~73°F
<1%
74〜75°F
1%
76〜77°F
4%
78~79°F
16%
80〜81°F
23%
82〜83°F
33%
84〜85°F
19%
86~87°F
5%
88〜89°F
3%
90°F以上
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus tilts toward a Miami high of 82-83°F (32.5% implied probability) driven by the latest NOAA and ECMWF forecast models, which cluster diurnal maximums around 82°F under a persistent high-pressure ridge fostering warm advection from the southwest. National Weather Service guidance echoes this with a forecast high near 83°F, tempered by afternoon sea-breeze moderation typical for coastal South Florida in late March. Differentiating nearby bins, 80-81°F (23%) accounts for potential enhanced onshore flow strengthening the sea breeze, while 84-85°F (19%) reflects upside risk from lighter winds or minor model warm biases seen in recent runs; historical March 23 averages hover at 80°F, but positive temperature anomalies this season nudge odds higher. Key watch: 18Z model updates today could shift ensemble spreads.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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