**Incumbent Rep. Jared Moskowitz commands trader consensus at 72% implied probability to win the FL-23 Democratic primary on August 18, buoyed by his name recognition, proven fundraising prowess—ending 2025 with over $1 million cash-on-hand—and history in the competitive South Florida district spanning northern Broward County.** Progressive challenger Oliver Adams Larkin, a democratic socialist and union organizer, holds 28% amid recent momentum from mid-March endorsements by Miami DSA, human rights advocate Cameron Kasky, and Beyond the Ballot, plus a Center for Strategic Politics poll released March 10 showing Larkin surging after likely Democratic voters hear balanced bios (initial undesignated matchup: Moskowitz 45%, Larkin 11%). Traders discount the poll as challenger-aligned while prioritizing Moskowitz's incumbency edge and resources ahead of candidate qualifying in June, with no other contenders polling notably.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$10,555 Vol.
$10,555 Vol.
2026/08/18
ジャレッド・モスコウィッツ
72%
オリバー・アダムズ・ラーキン
28%
$10,555 Vol.
$10,555 Vol.
2026/08/18
ジャレッド・モスコウィッツ
$4,162 Vol.
72%
オリバー・アダムズ・ラーキン
$6,393 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.**Incumbent Rep. Jared Moskowitz commands trader consensus at 72% implied probability to win the FL-23 Democratic primary on August 18, buoyed by his name recognition, proven fundraising prowess—ending 2025 with over $1 million cash-on-hand—and history in the competitive South Florida district spanning northern Broward County.** Progressive challenger Oliver Adams Larkin, a democratic socialist and union organizer, holds 28% amid recent momentum from mid-March endorsements by Miami DSA, human rights advocate Cameron Kasky, and Beyond the Ballot, plus a Center for Strategic Politics poll released March 10 showing Larkin surging after likely Democratic voters hear balanced bios (initial undesignated matchup: Moskowitz 45%, Larkin 11%). Traders discount the poll as challenger-aligned while prioritizing Moskowitz's incumbency edge and resources ahead of candidate qualifying in June, with no other contenders polling notably.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
マーケット開始日： Dec 19, 2025, 2:12 PM ET
音量
$10,555終了日
2026/08/18マーケット開始日
Dec 19, 2025, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.**Incumbent Rep. Jared Moskowitz commands trader consensus at 72% implied probability to win the FL-23 Democratic primary on August 18, buoyed by his name recognition, proven fundraising prowess—ending 2025 with over $1 million cash-on-hand—and history in the competitive South Florida district spanning northern Broward County.** Progressive challenger Oliver Adams Larkin, a democratic socialist and union organizer, holds 28% amid recent momentum from mid-March endorsements by Miami DSA, human rights advocate Cameron Kasky, and Beyond the Ballot, plus a Center for Strategic Politics poll released March 10 showing Larkin surging after likely Democratic voters hear balanced bios (initial undesignated matchup: Moskowitz 45%, Larkin 11%). Traders discount the poll as challenger-aligned while prioritizing Moskowitz's incumbency edge and resources ahead of candidate qualifying in June, with no other contenders polling notably.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
音量
$10,555終了日
2026/08/18マーケット開始日
Dec 19, 2025, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Incumbent Rep. Jared Moskowitz commands trader consensus at 72% implied probability to win the FL-23 Democratic primary on August 18, buoyed by his name recognition, proven fundraising prowess—ending 2025 with over $1 million cash-on-hand—and history in the competitive South Florida district spanning northern Broward County.** Progressive challenger Oliver Adams Larkin, a democratic socialist and union organizer, holds 28% amid recent momentum from mid-March endorsements by Miami DSA, human rights advocate Cameron Kasky, and Beyond the Ballot, plus a Center for Strategic Politics poll released March 10 showing Larkin surging after likely Democratic voters hear balanced bios (initial undesignated matchup: Moskowitz 45%, Larkin 11%). Traders discount the poll as challenger-aligned while prioritizing Moskowitz's incumbency edge and resources ahead of candidate qualifying in June, with no other contenders polling notably.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問