Incumbent Democrat Kathy Hochul commands trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability for the 2026 New York gubernatorial election, driven by her record-high approval ratings—reaching 52% favorable in late March Siena polling—and consistent double-digit leads over Republican frontrunner Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, including 47%-34% in the most recent Siena survey from March 23-26. New York's entrenched Democratic dominance, with no Republican governor since George Pataki left office in 2006, bolsters this positioning despite Hochul's narrow 2022 win over Lee Zeldin. Recent favorability surges reflect effective handling of state budget and crime issues, though her lead has narrowed slightly from February peaks. Upsets could arise from a consolidated GOP primary winner, ongoing immigration policy clashes escalating voter turnout in upstate and Long Island battlegrounds, Democratic infighting ahead of the June 23 primaries, or scandals impacting Hochul's incumbency advantage.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore delle elezioni del Governatore di New York
Vincitore delle elezioni del Governatore di New York
$52,431 Vol.
$52,431 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratico
92%
Repubblicano
9%
$52,431 Vol.
$52,431 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratico
$26,415 Vol.
92%
Repubblicano
$26,016 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Kathy Hochul commands trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability for the 2026 New York gubernatorial election, driven by her record-high approval ratings—reaching 52% favorable in late March Siena polling—and consistent double-digit leads over Republican frontrunner Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, including 47%-34% in the most recent Siena survey from March 23-26. New York's entrenched Democratic dominance, with no Republican governor since George Pataki left office in 2006, bolsters this positioning despite Hochul's narrow 2022 win over Lee Zeldin. Recent favorability surges reflect effective handling of state budget and crime issues, though her lead has narrowed slightly from February peaks. Upsets could arise from a consolidated GOP primary winner, ongoing immigration policy clashes escalating voter turnout in upstate and Long Island battlegrounds, Democratic infighting ahead of the June 23 primaries, or scandals impacting Hochul's incumbency advantage.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercato aperto: Oct 13, 2025, 5:45 PM ET
Volume
$52,431Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:45 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Kathy Hochul commands trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability for the 2026 New York gubernatorial election, driven by her record-high approval ratings—reaching 52% favorable in late March Siena polling—and consistent double-digit leads over Republican frontrunner Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, including 47%-34% in the most recent Siena survey from March 23-26. New York's entrenched Democratic dominance, with no Republican governor since George Pataki left office in 2006, bolsters this positioning despite Hochul's narrow 2022 win over Lee Zeldin. Recent favorability surges reflect effective handling of state budget and crime issues, though her lead has narrowed slightly from February peaks. Upsets could arise from a consolidated GOP primary winner, ongoing immigration policy clashes escalating voter turnout in upstate and Long Island battlegrounds, Democratic infighting ahead of the June 23 primaries, or scandals impacting Hochul's incumbency advantage.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$52,431Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:45 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Kathy Hochul commands trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability for the 2026 New York gubernatorial election, driven by her record-high approval ratings—reaching 52% favorable in late March Siena polling—and consistent double-digit leads over Republican frontrunner Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, including 47%-34% in the most recent Siena survey from March 23-26. New York's entrenched Democratic dominance, with no Republican governor since George Pataki left office in 2006, bolsters this positioning despite Hochul's narrow 2022 win over Lee Zeldin. Recent favorability surges reflect effective handling of state budget and crime issues, though her lead has narrowed slightly from February peaks. Upsets could arise from a consolidated GOP primary winner, ongoing immigration policy clashes escalating voter turnout in upstate and Long Island battlegrounds, Democratic infighting ahead of the June 23 primaries, or scandals impacting Hochul's incumbency advantage.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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