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Politica·Camera Dei Rappresentanti

CA-14 Special Election Winner?

icon for CA-14 Special Election Winner?
Politica·Camera Dei Rappresentanti

CA-14 Special Election Winner?

Aisha Wahab 54%

Melissa Hernandez 46.4%

Victor Aguilar Jr. 6.3%

Wendy Huang 2.8%

Polymarket
NUOVO

Aisha Wahab 54%

Melissa Hernandez 46.4%

Victor Aguilar Jr. 6.3%

Wendy Huang 2.8%

Polymarket
NUOVO

Aisha Wahab

$290 Vol.

54%

Melissa Hernandez

$79 Vol.

46%

Wendy Huang

$77 Vol.

3%

Carin Elam

$122 Vol.

41%

Matt Ortega

$95 Vol.

8%

Rakhi Israni Singh

$220 Vol.

38%

Victor Aguilar Jr.

$64 Vol.

6%

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.State Senator Aisha Wahab leads trader consensus at 71.5% implied probability to win California's 14th Congressional District special election, driven by her incumbency advantage representing an overlapping state senate district, strong fundraising, and endorsements from labor groups like the South Bay AFL-CIO Labor Council, California Working Families Party, Indivisible East Bay, and state leaders including Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis. In this Democratic stronghold vacated by Eric Swalwell's April 2026 resignation, a David Binder poll from early April showed Wahab at 29%—well ahead of Republican Wendy Huang at 9%—amid a crowded top-two nonpartisan primary on June 16. Challengers like Melissa Hernandez and Rakhi Israni Singh split progressive votes, while Huang consolidates GOP support at 17.8%, but faces steep barriers in the August 18 general. Internal Democratic efforts to clear the field for Wahab have boosted her positioning ahead of the primary.

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Volume
$946
Data di fine
18 ago 2026
Mercato aperto
Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.State Senator Aisha Wahab leads trader consensus at 71.5% implied probability to win California's 14th Congressional District special election, driven by her incumbency advantage representing an overlapping state senate district, strong fundraising, and endorsements from labor groups like the South Bay AFL-CIO Labor Council, California Working Families Party, Indivisible East Bay, and state leaders including Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis. In this Democratic stronghold vacated by Eric Swalwell's April 2026 resignation, a David Binder poll from early April showed Wahab at 29%—well ahead of Republican Wendy Huang at 9%—amid a crowded top-two nonpartisan primary on June 16. Challengers like Melissa Hernandez and Rakhi Israni Singh split progressive votes, while Huang consolidates GOP support at 17.8%, but faces steep barriers in the August 18 general. Internal Democratic efforts to clear the field for Wahab have boosted her positioning ahead of the primary.

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Volume
$946
Data di fine
18 ago 2026
Mercato aperto
Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

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"CA-14 Special Election Winner?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 7 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Aisha Wahab" a 54%, seguito da "Melissa Hernandez" a 46%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 54¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 54% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

"CA-14 Special Election Winner?" è un mercato appena creato su Polymarket, lanciato il Apr 16, 2026. Come mercato nuovo, questa è la tua opportunità di essere tra i primi trader a stabilire le quote e i segnali di prezzo iniziali del mercato. Puoi anche aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti per monitorare il volume e l'attività di trading man mano che il mercato guadagna visibilità.

Per fare trading su "CA-14 Special Election Winner?", esplora i 7 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "CA-14 Special Election Winner?" è "Aisha Wahab" a 54%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 54% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Melissa Hernandez" a 46%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "CA-14 Special Election Winner?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.