Kerala’s Legislative Assembly election on April 9 saw record voter turnout exceeding 75%, sparking debate over its anti-incumbency implications for the incumbent CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF), which seeks a rare third term under Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan amid critiques of state debt and governance. Pre-poll surveys showed a nail-biting contest, with some projecting an INC-led United Democratic Front (UDF) edge of 69-92 seats based on 2024 Lok Sabha momentum, while others foresaw LDF holding 61-71 via organizational strength. Trader consensus tilts slightly to CPI(M) at 54% implied probability, reflecting LDF’s cadre base and historical alternation patterns, versus INC at 46.5%; BJP-led NDA trails far behind. Results due May 4 could hinge on swing seats and post-poll dynamics if hung.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore delle elezioni dell'Assemblea legislativa del Kerala
Vincitore delle elezioni dell'Assemblea legislativa del Kerala
CPI(M) 54%
INC 47%
BSP <1%
CPI <1%
$280,371 Vol.
$280,371 Vol.
9 apr 2026
CPI(M)
54%
INC
47%
BSP
<1%
CPI
<1%
JD(S)
<1%
RSP
<1%
KEC(M)
<1%
BJP
<1%
NCP
<1%
IUML
<1%
CPI(M) 54%
INC 47%
BSP <1%
CPI <1%
$280,371 Vol.
$280,371 Vol.
9 apr 2026
CPI(M)
$35,308 Vol.
54%
INC
$34,830 Vol.
47%
BSP
$12,297 Vol.
<1%
CPI
$28,084 Vol.
<1%
JD(S)
$24,403 Vol.
<1%
RSP
$13,090 Vol.
<1%
KEC(M)
$13,613 Vol.
<1%
BJP
$57,830 Vol.
<1%
NCP
$45,976 Vol.
<1%
IUML
$14,939 Vol.
<1%
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Kerala’s Legislative Assembly election on April 9 saw record voter turnout exceeding 75%, sparking debate over its anti-incumbency implications for the incumbent CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF), which seeks a rare third term under Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan amid critiques of state debt and governance. Pre-poll surveys showed a nail-biting contest, with some projecting an INC-led United Democratic Front (UDF) edge of 69-92 seats based on 2024 Lok Sabha momentum, while others foresaw LDF holding 61-71 via organizational strength. Trader consensus tilts slightly to CPI(M) at 54% implied probability, reflecting LDF’s cadre base and historical alternation patterns, versus INC at 46.5%; BJP-led NDA trails far behind. Results due May 4 could hinge on swing seats and post-poll dynamics if hung.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Mercato aperto: Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$280,371Data di fine
9 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Kerala’s Legislative Assembly election on April 9 saw record voter turnout exceeding 75%, sparking debate over its anti-incumbency implications for the incumbent CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF), which seeks a rare third term under Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan amid critiques of state debt and governance. Pre-poll surveys showed a nail-biting contest, with some projecting an INC-led United Democratic Front (UDF) edge of 69-92 seats based on 2024 Lok Sabha momentum, while others foresaw LDF holding 61-71 via organizational strength. Trader consensus tilts slightly to CPI(M) at 54% implied probability, reflecting LDF’s cadre base and historical alternation patterns, versus INC at 46.5%; BJP-led NDA trails far behind. Results due May 4 could hinge on swing seats and post-poll dynamics if hung.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Volume
$280,371Data di fine
9 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Kerala’s Legislative Assembly election on April 9 saw record voter turnout exceeding 75%, sparking debate over its anti-incumbency implications for the incumbent CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF), which seeks a rare third term under Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan amid critiques of state debt and governance. Pre-poll surveys showed a nail-biting contest, with some projecting an INC-led United Democratic Front (UDF) edge of 69-92 seats based on 2024 Lok Sabha momentum, while others foresaw LDF holding 61-71 via organizational strength. Trader consensus tilts slightly to CPI(M) at 54% implied probability, reflecting LDF’s cadre base and historical alternation patterns, versus INC at 46.5%; BJP-led NDA trails far behind. Results due May 4 could hinge on swing seats and post-poll dynamics if hung.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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