Abelardo de la Espriella holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for Colombia’s 2026 presidential election following his first-round plurality of 43.7 percent on May 31, ahead of Iván Cepeda’s 40.9 percent. This positions the two for a June 21 runoff, with de la Espriella consolidating right-leaning support after outperforming earlier polling averages and drawing endorsements that include a public statement from U.S. President Donald Trump. Cepeda, backed by outgoing President Gustavo Petro’s Historic Pact, remains competitive in runoff surveys but trails amid voter priorities on security and continuity versus change. Other candidates register negligible shares, reflecting their elimination or minimal viability in the two-candidate final stage. Upcoming campaign developments through mid-June could still influence the outcome before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoClaims of electoral irregularities emerge from Iván Cepeda's campaign
Iván Cepeda Castro plunges to 18%22%
Following the first round, Iván Cepeda's campaign alleged atypical voting patterns and possible irregularities at some polling stations, calling for verification and official scrutiny of the results. These claims added tension to the electoral process ahead of the runoff.
Paloma Valencia Endorses Abelardo de la Espriella for Runoff
Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 20%12%
Following her third-place finish, conservative candidate Paloma Valencia endorsed de la Espriella, consolidating the right-wing vote and boosting his market odds.
Iván Cepeda questions preliminary election results citing irregularities
Iván Cepeda Castro plunges to 18%22%
Following the first round, Iván Cepeda publicly questioned the preliminary results, alleging atypical voting patterns at some polling stations. This raised tensions and uncertainty ahead of the runoff election.
Polls confirm Iván Cepeda leads runoff scenarios against De la Espriella
Iván Cepeda Castro plunges to 19%18%
Polls and surveys conducted after the first round show Iván Cepeda leading in runoff matchups against Abelardo de la Espriella, with Cepeda generally favored to win by a margin of about 10 points. This reflects a consolidation of left-wing support and a divided right-wing electorate.
Claudia López finishes fifth in first round, failing to advance to runoff
Former Bogotá Mayor Claudia López, running as a centrist independent, finished fifth in the first round of the presidential election with less than 1% of the vote, marking a decline in centrist influence in the election.
Legal challenge filed to compel Iván Cepeda to attend presidential debates
Iván Cepeda Castro plunges to 17%23%
A tutela action was filed seeking to obligate Iván Cepeda to participate in at least two presidential debates before the first round, arguing that his absence creates an information asymmetry affecting voters' right to informed decisions. This reflects ongoing debate about debate participation in Colombia.
First round of presidential election held with De la Espriella leading and Cepeda close behind
In the first round of the 2026 presidential election, right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella led with 43.7% of the vote, followed closely by left-wing candidate Iván Cepeda with 40.9%, necessitating a runoff on June 21.
First round of Colombian presidential election results in runoff between De la Espriella and Cepeda
In the May 31 first round, Abelardo de la Espriella led with 43.7% and Iván Cepeda followed with 40.9%. Neither secured a majority, leading to a runoff scheduled for June 21. The election was marked by high polarization and security concerns.
Public rebuke of Iván Cepeda by victims of FARC and Vicky Dávila's criticism
A video circulated showing victims of the FARC publicly rebuking Iván Cepeda for the number of child victims attributed to the guerrilla group. Journalist Vicky Dávila amplified the criticism on social media, impacting Cepeda's public image.
Abelardo de la Espriella leads first round of presidential election
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 84%34%
De la Espriella won the first round with 43.7% of the vote, ahead of Iván Cepeda's 40.9%, setting the stage for a runoff election on June 21.
Abelardo de la Espriella Wins First Round of Presidential Election
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 81%12%
Right-wing outsider Abelardo de la Espriella outperformed polls to win the first round of the presidential election with 43.7% of the vote, triggering a runoff against Iván Cepeda.
Iván Cepeda challenges preliminary results citing irregularities
Iván Cepeda Castro plunges to 22%18%
Following the first round, Iván Cepeda expressed concerns about atypical voting patterns at some polling stations and indicated his campaign would verify the integrity of the vote count, reflecting tensions in the electoral process.
Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Cepeda Advance to Presidential Runoff
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 82%20%
First-round election results showed right-wing outsider Abelardo de la Espriella leading with 43.74% of the vote, followed by leftist Iván Cepeda with 40.90%, sending both to a June 21 runoff and knocking out other candidates.
First round election results: Abelardo de la Espriella leads, Iván Cepeda second, runoff set
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 81%18%
In the May 31 first round, De la Espriella led with 43.7% and Cepeda followed with 40.9%, triggering a runoff on June 21. This official result caused a sharp rise in De la Espriella's market price and a decline for Cepeda, reflecting the electoral outcome.
First round election results: Abelardo de la Espriella leads, Iván Cepeda second
In the first round of the presidential election, Abelardo de la Espriella led with 43.7% of the vote, followed closely by Iván Cepeda with 40.9%. Neither candidate secured over 50%, leading to a runoff scheduled for June 21, 2026.
Paloma Valencia endorses Abelardo de la Espriella for runoff
After finishing third in the first round, Paloma Valencia endorsed Abelardo de la Espriella to consolidate the right-wing vote against Iván Cepeda in the runoff election.
Iván Cepeda Finishes Second in First Round and Questions Preliminary Results
Iván Cepeda Castro plunges to 18%19%
Leftist candidate Iván Cepeda secured 40.90% of the vote, advancing to the runoff but trailing De la Espriella. Cepeda and President Petro sowed doubt by alleging atypical voting patterns, causing Cepeda's market odds to drop sharply.
Colombian presidential election first round held amid security concerns
The first round of Colombia's 2026 presidential election took place on May 31 amid heightened security measures due to ongoing violence and political tensions. Despite concerns, the election proceeded with significant voter turnout, resulting in a runoff between Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Cepeda.
First round of Colombian presidential election results: De la Espriella leads, Cepeda second
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 65%2%
In the first round of voting, right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella led with 43.7% of the vote, followed closely by left-wing candidate Iván Cepeda with 40.9%, leading to a runoff election scheduled for June 21.
Abelardo de la Espriella gana la primera vuelta presidencial y pasa a segunda vuelta con Iván Cepeda
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 83%21%
Right-wing outsider Abelardo de la Espriella secured first place in the first round of the presidential election with 43.74% of the vote, leading Iván Cepeda to a June 21 runoff.
Ecuadorean President Daniel Noboa Meets with Abelardo de la Espriella
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 81%10%
Ecuadorean President Daniel Noboa met with de la Espriella to pledge joint cooperation against narcoterrorism, drawing accusations of election interference from the Colombian government.
Ecuadorean president meets Abelardo de la Espriella, pledges joint fight against narcoterrorism
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 63%13%
Ecuadorean president Daniel Noboa met with De la Espriella and committed to joint efforts against narcoterrorism, promising to eliminate a security tax. The Colombian government condemned this as interference, adding international tension to the election period.
Final campaign surge boosts Abelardo de la Espriella's chances ahead of election
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 63%19%
In the final days before the May 31 election, Abelardo de la Espriella's campaign gained momentum, with polls and market prices showing a significant rise, overtaking Paloma Valencia and positioning him as the main right-wing contender against Iván Cepeda.
Iván Cepeda faces complaints for violating electoral silence with campaign events
Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 32%7%
Iván Cepeda was formally denounced for holding mass campaign events during the legally mandated electoral silence period, raising legal and reputational challenges that likely contributed to a decline in his market price.
Álvaro Uribe accuses Iván Cepeda of paramilitary ties and undermining peace
Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 32%11%
Former president Álvaro Uribe publicly accused Iván Cepeda of offering benefits to paramilitaries and having links with FARC dissidents, intensifying political polarization and impacting Cepeda's campaign and market support.
Iván Cepeda closes campaign with rally in Bogotá’s Plaza de Bolívar
Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 20%12%
Cepeda held a large rally in Bogotá to close his campaign. While attendance was strong, media coverage emphasized his declining poll numbers, coinciding with a market dip from 32 % to 20 % on June 1.
Abelardo de la Espriella launches luxury campaign merchandise including $20 million watch
De la Espriella gained media attention for launching exclusive and expensive campaign merchandise, including a limited edition watch priced at 20 million pesos. This move sparked mixed reactions and highlighted his affluent campaign style.
Luis Gilberto Murillo withdraws presidential candidacy to support Iván Cepeda
Iván Cepeda Castro plunges to 0%50%
Luis Gilberto Murillo officially withdrew his candidacy and joined Iván Cepeda's campaign, aiming to strengthen the coalition and broaden support ahead of the election.
Iván Cepeda closes presidential campaign with large rally in Bogotá
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 42%2%
Cepeda held a major campaign closing event at Plaza de Bolívar with strong support from Pacto Histórico followers, reinforcing his position as the leading candidate ahead of the May 31 election, which helped stabilize his market standing.
Poll Shows Abelardo de la Espriella Growing in Strength for Runoff Scenarios
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 71%16%
A late-May poll showed de la Espriella gaining significant momentum, indicating he would defeat Cepeda in a hypothetical second-round runoff.
Abelardo de la Espriella Draws Massive Crowd at Barranquilla Campaign Closure
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 69%14%
Abelardo de la Espriella held a massive final campaign rally in Barranquilla, drawing tens of thousands of supporters and solidifying his position as the primary challenger to Cepeda.
Iván Cepeda cierra su campaña presidencial en la Plaza de Bolívar de Bogotá
Iván Cepeda closed his first-round presidential campaign with a massive rally in Bogotá, demonstrating strong mobilization of the Pacto Histórico coalition.
Polls show Abelardo de la Espriella surging ahead of Iván Cepeda
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 56%11%
Recent polls and campaign developments showed De la Espriella gaining significant ground over Cepeda, pushing his market price sharply upward as he became the clear frontrunner ahead of the May 31 election.
Iván Cepeda closes presidential campaign with large rally in Bogotá
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 72%16%
Iván Cepeda held a major campaign closing event at Plaza de Bolívar in Bogotá with strong support from Pacto Histórico followers, reinforcing his position as the leading candidate ahead of the May 31 election and stabilizing his market standing.
Iván Cepeda closes campaign with large rally in Bogotá
Cepeda held a major campaign closing event in Bogotá's Plaza de Bolívar, demonstrating strong grassroots support and boosting his final market price before the election.
De la Espriella draws over 50 000 supporters at Barranquilla’s Gran Malecón
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 81%25%
De la Espriella’s massive rally on the Gran Malecón in Barranquilla attracted tens of thousands, reinforcing his momentum in the final week and pushing his market price from 56 % (May 21) to 66 % (May 28), then to 81 % on June 2.
Abelardo de la Espriella holds massive campaign closing event in Barranquilla
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 72%22%
De la Espriella gathered thousands of supporters in Barranquilla for his campaign closing, demonstrating strong grassroots support and boosting market confidence ahead of the election.
Campaign headquarters of Paloma Valencia vandalized amid protests in Bogotá
Paloma Valencia drops to 2%12%
Paloma Valencia's campaign office in Bogotá was attacked by masked protesters, causing damage and raising concerns about political violence and opposition safety, which contributed to her declining support and market price drop.
Jaime Andrés Beltrán joins Abelardo de la Espriella's campaign as regional manager
Former Bucaramanga mayor Jaime Andrés Beltrán abandoned his Senate bid to support De la Espriella's presidential campaign, enhancing the candidate's regional presence and campaign infrastructure.
Abelardo de la Espriella holds large campaign closing rally in Bogotá focusing on security and state reduction
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 52%8%
De la Espriella's rally in Bogotá emphasized his tough stance on security, promising megaprison construction and state downsizing to fund social programs. The event energized his base and contributed to his late surge in the polls, reflected in market price increases.
Colombia’s ELN rebels and FARC dissidents announce ceasefire for presidential election
The ELN and FARC dissident groups announced ceasefires around the May 31 election date, reducing violence and potentially impacting voter turnout and election dynamics. This development affected all candidates but was significant for the overall election environment.
CNE Suspends AtlasIntel Polls Over Methodological Concerns
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 50%6%
The National Electoral Council (CNE) suspended the publication of AtlasIntel polls, which had previously shown De la Espriella leading, due to concerns over biased methodologies.
CNE suspends AtlasIntel polls over methodological concerns
The National Electoral Council (CNE) suspended AtlasIntel's polls due to concerns about biased methodologies, including digital exclusion and inconsistent data. The ban was lifted shortly after for procedural reasons, but the investigation into polling practices continued, affecting public perception of polling reliability.
Petro clashes with Trump over Venezuela and regional influence
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 45%12%
President Petro's public confrontation with Donald Trump regarding Venezuela and regional security influenced the political climate and market sentiment for the presidential election.
Abelardo de la Espriella's campaign gains momentum with new regional ally Jaime Andrés Beltrán
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 55%11%
The addition of Jaime Andrés Beltrán, former mayor of Bucaramanga, as regional campaign manager strengthened De la Espriella's territorial reach and boosted market confidence, reflected in a sharp price increase.
Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Cepeda Castro lead final polls before election
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 44%9%
By mid-May 2026, Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Cepeda Castro were the top contenders with market prices at 44% and 42% respectively, reflecting a tight race heading into the election.
Controversy over Iván Cepeda's refusal to attend debates
Iván Cepeda Castro plunges to 19%18%
Iván Cepeda faced criticism for declining to participate in several presidential debates, a stance that sparked legal actions seeking to compel his attendance. This controversy highlighted tensions around campaign transparency and voter information ahead of the election.
Revelan que Abelardo de la Espriella no prestó servicio militar por no ser apto
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 45%1%
A column by journalist Ana Bejarano revealed official Army documents showing De la Espriella was declared unfit for military service, sparking criticism from opponents like Claudia López.
Army Reveals Abelardo de la Espriella Was Declared Unfit for Military Service
A public controversy erupted after a journalist published an official document showing that the right-wing candidate, who campaigns heavily on patriotism and security, was declared unfit for military service in 1994.
Revelation of Abelardo de la Espriella's military service status sparks controversy
The Colombian Army confirmed that De la Espriella was declared unfit for military service and was exempted, which sparked debate given his patriotic campaign rhetoric. This controversy was amplified by political opponents and media, affecting public perception.
Abelardo de la Espriella's military service status revealed
The Colombian Army confirmed that Abelardo de la Espriella was declared unfit for military service in 1994, a fact that sparked public debate given his campaign's emphasis on patriotism and security.
Revelation that Abelardo de la Espriella did not complete military service sparks controversy
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 43%4%
The Colombian Army confirmed that Abelardo de la Espriella was declared unfit for military service and thus exempted, which sparked debate given his campaign's emphasis on patriotism and security. This controversy affected public perception and market prices.
Final polls show close race between Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Cepeda Castro
As the election nears, polls indicate a tight contest between Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Cepeda Castro, with market prices reflecting this competitive dynamic.
Journalist Ana Bejarano Reveals Abelardo de la Espriella Did Not Serve in Military
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 50%6%
A column and official document shared by journalist Ana Bejarano revealed that De la Espriella was declared unfit for military service, sparking criticism from rival Claudia López.
Abelardo de la Espriella launches luxury campaign merchandise
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 28%6%
Abelardo de la Espriella launched a luxury watch priced at 20 million pesos as part of his campaign merchandise, attracting media attention and reflecting his campaign's blend of political and entrepreneurial strategies.
Assassination of Abelardo de la Espriella's campaign coordinator in Meta
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 58%6%
Rogers Mauricio Devia, a key regional coordinator for De la Espriella's campaign, was killed in an armed attack, raising security concerns and political tension just weeks before the election. This tragic event highlighted the risks faced by political campaigns and affected De la Espriella's campaign dynamics.
Two presidential campaign staffers killed in Colombia amid election violence
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 40%4%
Two campaign staffers for right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella were killed in the department of Meta, raising concerns about election violence and its impact on political participation and campaign dynamics.
Two members of De la Espriella’s campaign killed in Meta
Two members of De la Espriella’s campaign were assassinated in the Meta department two weeks before the election, raising security concerns. The incident momentarily slowed his price rise (from 66 % on May 28 to 66 % on Jun 2) but did not reverse the overall upward trend.
Two campaign workers for Abelardo De La Espriella killed in attack
Two campaign workers for right-wing candidate Abelardo De La Espriella were ambushed and killed in Meta province, raising concerns about election-related violence and security ahead of the presidential vote. De La Espriella condemned the attack and blamed dissident FARC factions, though authorities had not confirmed the perpetrators. This incident highlighted the tense and violent environment surrounding the 2026 elections.
Assassination of two campaign members shocks Abelardo de la Espriella's team
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 63%19%
The killing of two members of Abelardo de la Espriella's campaign in Meta raised concerns about political violence and intimidation, eliciting international condolences and highlighting security challenges affecting the election environment and possibly rallying support for De la Espriella.
Abelardo de la Espriella holds large campaign closing event in Bucaramanga
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 45%2%
De la Espriella's campaign rally in Bucaramanga attracted thousands, signaling strong grassroots support and momentum in the final weeks before the election, which was reflected in rising market prices.
Latest AtlasIntel poll shows Abelardo de la Espriella widening lead over Paloma Valencia
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 41%16%
In mid-May 2026, Abelardo de la Espriella's support surged to 32.9%, distancing himself from Paloma Valencia at 16.7%, consolidating his frontrunner status ahead of the election.
Abelardo de la Espriella surpasses Paloma Valencia in AtlasIntel poll, nears Iván Cepeda
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 33%7%
In a key poll by AtlasIntel, De la Espriella gained 32.9% support, distancing himself from Paloma Valencia at 16.7% and closing the gap with Iván Cepeda, signaling a surge in his campaign momentum and market price.
Late surge for Abelardo de la Espriella ahead of election day
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 44%16%
Abelardo de la Espriella's market probability rebounded to 44% on election day, indicating a late surge in voter support possibly due to final campaign efforts and strategic messaging.
Abelardo de la Espriella surges in polls, closing gap with Iván Cepeda
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 50%6%
Recent polls showed De la Espriella gaining significant voter support, narrowing the gap with Iván Cepeda and surpassing Paloma Valencia, reflecting his campaign momentum and contributing to his market price increase.
Abelardo de la Espriella distances himself from Paloma Valencia in latest AtlasIntel poll
Paloma Valencia drops to 9%7%
Latest AtlasIntel poll shows Abelardo de la Espriella consolidating his lead over Paloma Valencia, who continues to lose support, confirming the market's decline in her price.
Abelardo de la Espriella denounces political slavery during campaign tour in Valle del Cauca
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 43%3%
During a campaign tour, Abelardo de la Espriella criticized corrupt political practices and pledged to fight against political exploitation, energizing his base and increasing his market support.
Atlas Poll Shows Abelardo de la Espriella Leading in Runoff Scenarios
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 55%11%
A new Atlas poll showed Iván Cepeda leading the first round, but Abelardo de la Espriella leading in a head-to-head runoff scenario with 44% of the vote.
Abelardo de la Espriella announces José Manuel Restrepo as vice-presidential running mate
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 43%3%
De la Espriella's announcement of respected economist and ex-minister José Manuel Restrepo as his vice-presidential candidate enhanced his campaign's credibility and appeal, contributing to a significant price increase in the market.
De la Espriella invests 195 million pesos in private AtlasIntel polling
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 46%7%
De la Espriella's campaign invested heavily in private polling services from AtlasIntel to track electoral performance daily, enhancing campaign strategy and contributing to a price increase from 39% to 46%.
Iván Cepeda denounces armed groups' coercion in electoral process, demands sanctions
Iván Cepeda Castro dips to 38%2%
Cepeda publicly condemned the influence of armed groups pressuring voters in various regions, calling for investigations and sanctions to ensure free and fair elections, reinforcing his campaign's commitment to democracy and impacting market perceptions.
FARC dissident audio backs Cepeda; Uribe accuses candidate of voter coercion
Iván Cepeda Castro plunges to 19%21%
A viral audio allegedly featuring a FARC dissident praising Cepeda, together with accusations from former President Uribe of “criminal coercion” of voters for Cepeda, sparked a media storm. The controversy eroded voter confidence, driving Cepeda’s price sharply down from 40 % (May 11) to 19 % (June 2).
Iván Cepeda faces public criticism over conflict victims controversy
Iván Cepeda was publicly confronted by victims of child recruitment by FARC, an incident that sparked political debate and criticism, including from rival candidate Vicky Dávila, impacting Cepeda's public image.
Iván Cepeda publicly confronted by victims of child recruitment by FARC, sparking criticism from Vicky Dávila
Iván Cepeda Castro dips to 38%2%
Cepeda faced public criticism over the issue of child victims of FARC, with journalist Vicky Dávila sharing the confrontation and criticizing Cepeda's response, which affected his public image and campaign narrative during a sensitive period.
Controversy over Colombian ambassador Vilma Velásquez's political involvement
Ambassador Vilma Velásquez was accused of using her diplomatic position to promote political candidacies, violating Colombian jurisprudence, which put her under investigation and affected Iván Cepeda's campaign due to her association.
Abelardo de la Espriella surges in polls with tough stance on crime
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 44%16%
Abelardo de la Espriella's poll numbers surged as he emphasized a hardline approach against criminal groups, appealing to voters concerned about security. This caused a significant market price increase for his candidacy.
Iván Cepeda requests investigation into Colombian ambassador's political endorsement
Ambassador Vilma Velásquez publicly endorsed Iván Cepeda's campaign, prompting Cepeda to reject the support and request an official investigation to maintain campaign legality.
Iván Cepeda calls for investigation into ambassador Vilma Velásquez's political involvement
Iván Cepeda Castro dips to 38%1%
Iván Cepeda publicly requested an investigation into Ambassador Vilma Velásquez for allegedly using her diplomatic position to promote political candidacies, which put the ambassador under scrutiny and affected Cepeda's campaign narrative.
Iván Cepeda asks for probe into Haitian ambassador’s alleged campaign activity
Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 32%9%
Cepeda publicly demanded an investigation into Haitian ambassador Vilma Velásquez for alleged political campaigning, sparking controversy and a further decline of his market price from 41 % to 32 % as voters questioned his focus on legal battles.
Iván Cepeda asks probe of Haiti ambassador Vilma Velásquez for campaign interference
Iván Cepeda Castro plunges to 28%15%
Cepeda publicly demanded an investigation of Ambassador Vilma Velásquez for alleged political campaigning, reigniting concerns about his adherence to political‑neutrality rules. The controversy accelerated Cepeda’s slide – his market price fell from 43 % on 10 May to 28 % on 20 May.
Diplomat Vilma Velásquez investigated for political campaigning in Haiti
Iván Cepeda Castro dips to 35%2%
Iván Cepeda called for an investigation into Ambassador Vilma Velásquez for allegedly using her diplomatic position to promote political candidates, which is prohibited. This controversy affected Cepeda's campaign image.
Victims of child killings slam Iván Cepeda in viral video
Iván Cepeda Castro plunges to 17%17%
A video circulated in which victims accused Cepeda of downplaying the 18,000 child deaths caused by the FARC. The clip sparked a social‑media storm and several news outlets highlighted the backlash, causing Cepeda’s market price to tumble from the mid‑30 % range to the high‑teens within days.
Abelardo de la Espriella reaches peak market support
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 44%22%
Abelardo de la Espriella's campaign saw a late-stage surge in market support, positioning him as a leading contender.
Abelardo de la Espriella rebounds with strong campaign events
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 44%23%
Abelardo de la Espriella regained support through effective campaigning and positive media coverage, with market prices rising from 21% to 44%.
Polymarket odds give De la Espriella 63 % chance of runoff
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 71%15%
Polymarket published odds showing De la Espriella with a 63 % chance of reaching the second round, far above his rivals. The market‑prediction platform’s data were cited by several political analysts, prompting a rapid surge in De la Espriella’s price and a further decline for Cepeda.
Abelardo de la Espriella leads Polymarket betting odds for second round
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 55%12%
Polymarket data showed Abelardo de la Espriella with a 63% chance to reach the second round, reflecting strong market confidence in his electoral prospects and contributing to his price surge.
Prediction market shows Abelardo de la Espriella closing gap with Iván Cepeda
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 65%22%
Polymarket data indicated a near tie between De la Espriella and Cepeda, with 38% and 39% respectively, reflecting growing market confidence in De la Espriella's chances. This coincided with his campaign gaining support from influential political groups, boosting his perceived electability.
Polymarket prediction platform shows Abelardo de la Espriella nearly tied with Iván Cepeda
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 43%3%
International prediction market Polymarket indicated a statistical tie between De la Espriella and Cepeda, reflecting growing confidence in De la Espriella's chances and likely influencing market prices upward for him and downward for Cepeda.
Luis Gilberto Murillo withdraws and endorses Iván Cepeda
Luis Gilberto Murillo formally announced his withdrawal from the presidential race and declared his endorsement of ruling-party candidate Iván Cepeda, consolidating left-wing support ahead of the election.
Luis Gilberto Murillo withdraws and endorses Iván Cepeda
Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB) dips to 0%2%
Luis Gilberto Murillo formally withdrew from the presidential race and endorsed Iván Cepeda, consolidating the left-wing vote ahead of the first round on May 31, 2026.
Luis Gilberto Murillo withdraws from presidential race and endorses Iván Cepeda
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 40%14%
Luis Gilberto Murillo formally withdrew from the presidential race and endorsed Iván Cepeda, consolidating the left-wing vote and boosting Cepeda's market position significantly.
Luis Gilberto Murillo Withdraws Presidential Candidacy to Endorse Iván Cepeda
Luis Gilberto Murillo withdrew from the presidential race to support the campaign of Pacto Histórico candidate Iván Cepeda Castro, consolidating the leftist coalition.
Ex‑Bucaramanga mayor joins de la Espriella’s campaign as regional manager
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 52%14%
Former Bucaramanga mayor Beltrán announced he would serve as regional manager for de la Espriella’s campaign, positioning the candidate as a unifying figure for right‑wing voters. The endorsement coincided with a 14‑point jump for de la Espriella from 38 % on 1 May to 52 % on 8 May.
Luis Gilberto Murillo withdraws from presidential race, endorses Iván Cepeda
Luis Gilberto Murillo formally exited the presidential race and endorsed Iván Cepeda, consolidating left-wing support and causing Murillo's market price to drop to zero while boosting Cepeda's chances.
Luis Gilberto Murillo renuncia a su candidatura y se adhiere a la campaña de Iván Cepeda
Iván Cepeda Castro dips to 41%1%
Luis Gilberto Murillo withdrew from the presidential race to endorse and join the campaign of progressive candidate Iván Cepeda Castro, consolidating support on the left.
Luis Gilberto Murillo Withdraws Presidential Candidacy to Endorse Iván Cepeda
Luis Gilberto Murillo officially withdrew his presidential bid to join and support the campaign of Pacto Histórico candidate Iván Cepeda.
Luis Gilberto Murillo withdraws candidacy and endorses Iván Cepeda
Luis Gilberto Murillo, a minor candidate, withdrew from the presidential race and endorsed Iván Cepeda, consolidating left-wing support behind Cepeda and potentially boosting his chances in the election.
Abelardo de la Espriella rebounds in final campaign stretch
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 35%14%
Abelardo de la Espriella's market price rose from 21% to 35% in early May 2026, indicating a recovery in voter support due to effective last-minute campaigning and endorsements.
Abelardo de la Espriella unveils 20 million‑peso luxury campaign watch
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 48%6%
Espriella released a limited‑edition luxury watch priced at 20 million pesos, generating viral social‑media buzz that lifted his market perception from 42 % to 48 % as supporters praised his branding tactics.
Vicky Dávila drops out after health issues
Vicky Dávila (IND) dips to 0%1%
Vicky Dávila announced she could not continue due to health concerns, sending her price to zero.
Jaime Andrés Beltrán joins Abelardo de la Espriella’s campaign as regional manager
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 55%7%
The former mayor of Bucaramanga, Jaime Andrés Beltrán, publicly joined Espriella’s campaign as regional manager, fueling a media surge that lifted Espriella’s price from the low‑30s to the mid‑40s.
Former Bucaramanga mayor joins De la Espriella’s campaign as regional manager
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 48%4%
De la Espriella announced that former Bucaramanga mayor Jaime Andrés Beltrán would join his campaign as regional manager. The endorsement by a popular local figure was reported by Pulzo and generated a noticeable uptick in De la Espriella’s market price during late April.
Carlos Felipe Córdoba’s campaign disbands amid funding scandal
Carlos Felipe Córdoba plunges to 0%33%
A funding scandal forced the disbanding of Córdoba’s campaign, collapsing his market price.
Paloma Valencia's support peaks amid growing media attention
Paloma Valencia rises to 44%4%
Media coverage and public interest pushed Paloma Valencia's market probability to a peak of 44%, reflecting heightened visibility and voter engagement.
Cepeda challenges Valencia and De la Espriella to a democratic debate
Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 31%7%
Cepeda publicly challenged Paloma Valencia and De la Espriella to a “truly democratic” debate. While intended to raise his profile, the move was met with criticism from right‑wing outlets and coincided with a modest decline in his market odds during the second week of April.
President Petro Warns of CIA-Detected Attack Plan Against Iván Cepeda
Iván Cepeda Castro dips to 17%2%
President Gustavo Petro announced that the CIA had concrete data regarding a potential assassination plot targeting candidate Iván Cepeda, prompting heightened security measures.
Iván Cepeda Castro maintains lead in polls amid campaign intensification
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 41%3%
Iván Cepeda Castro sustained his lead in polls as the campaign intensified, reflecting continued voter support for the left-wing candidate. This stability was mirrored in market prices, reinforcing his frontrunner status.
Vicky Dávila leaves Paloma Valencia’s coalition and returns to journalism
After losing the right-wing primary, Vicky Dávila left Paloma Valencia’s coalition and returned to journalism, effectively ending her presidential campaign and dropping her market price to zero.
Roy Barreras eliminated in inter‑party primaries
Roy Barreras drops to 0%7%
Roy Barreras failed to secure enough votes in the primary round, causing his market price to drop to zero.
Polls show Iván Cepeda maintains lead but faces stagnation in voter support
Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 37%10%
Polls indicated Cepeda's lead remained steady but without growth, raising concerns about his ability to win outright in the first round. This contributed to price fluctuations and uncertainty in the market regarding his ultimate chances.
Paloma Valencia reaches peak support amid campaign momentum
Paloma Valencia jumps to 47%6%
Paloma Valencia's market price peaked at 47% in early April 2026, reflecting sustained campaign momentum and growing voter enthusiasm ahead of the election.
Colombian city Cartagena replaces horse buggies with electric carriages amid protests
Cartagena's move to replace horse-drawn buggies with electric carriages following animal welfare protests reflects social and cultural shifts in Colombia, indirectly influencing public sentiment and political discourse during the election period, with minor impact on candidate standings.
Abelardo de la Espriella invests 195 million pesos in private electoral tracking service
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 19%4%
De la Espriella's campaign contracted AtlasIntel's private tracker service to monitor daily electoral pulse, enabling strategic adjustments and possibly improving campaign effectiveness, which contributed to his rising market support.
Abelardo de la Espriella vows to deploy army to streets amid rising campaign tensions
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 19%3%
De la Espriella's strong law-and-order rhetoric, including a promise to deploy the army to streets, aimed to consolidate his base and counter opponents. This statement likely contributed to volatility in his market price as voters reacted.
Small plane crash kills Colombian congress member Diógenes Quintero
The death of congressman Diógenes Quintero in a plane crash was a significant event affecting political dynamics, potentially influencing voter sentiment and candidate support.
Paloma Valencia's campaign surges after major policy announcement
Paloma Valencia surges to 41%32%
Paloma Valencia's market probability rose sharply from 9% to 41% following a major policy announcement that resonated with voters, marking her as a significant contender.
Poll shows Paloma Valencia surges to second place, challenging Iván Cepeda
Paloma Valencia surges to 40%18%
A Centro Nacional de Consultoría poll revealed Paloma Valencia rising to second place with 22.2%, displacing De la Espriella and creating a statistical tie with Cepeda in runoff scenarios. This reshaped the race dynamics, causing market fluctuations as Valencia emerged as a significant contender.
Paloma Valencia surges in polls after strong debate showing
Paloma Valencia surges to 39%30%
Paloma Valencia's market price jumped from 9% to 39% in March 2026 following a well-received debate performance that energized her campaign and attracted new supporters.
Abelardo de la Espriella's support plummets amid controversy
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 14%7%
Controversial statements and campaign missteps caused Abelardo de la Espriella's market support to fall sharply from 21% to 14%.
Small plane crash in Colombia kills 15 including congress member
Iván Cepeda Castro dips to 41%3%
A tragic plane crash killed 15 people including a congressman and a congressional candidate, causing political shockwaves and impacting the election dynamics, particularly affecting the market confidence in Iván Cepeda Castro and Abelardo de la Espriella as political stability concerns rose.
Foiled assassination attempt against Abelardo de la Espriella during campaign event
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 25%11%
Authorities prevented a potential attack on De La Espriella when a man posing as a security escort was found armed at a campaign event in Envigado. This incident raised security concerns but reinforced his campaign's visibility, contributing to a price rebound from 14% to 25%.
Attempted assassination plot against Abelardo de la Espriella foiled in Envigado
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 25%11%
Security forces prevented an armed individual posing as a campaign bodyguard from attacking De la Espriella during a political event. This incident heightened concerns about candidate safety and may have rallied public sympathy, contributing to a rebound in his market price.
Abelardo de la Espriella faces controversy, causing sharp drop in support
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 10%23%
A controversy involving Abelardo de la Espriella led to a significant drop in his market probability from 33% to 10%, indicating voter backlash and uncertainty about his candidacy.
Abelardo de la Espriella's support collapses after controversy
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 14%25%
Abelardo de la Espriella's market price dropped from 39% to 14% in mid-March 2026 due to a major controversy that damaged his public image and voter trust.
Security incident: Suspected intelligence operation foiled during Abelardo de la Espriella campaign event in Envigado
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 14%26%
A security breach involving a person posing as a security guard with surveillance equipment was uncovered, which raised concerns about campaign safety and potentially influenced voter perceptions of the candidate's vulnerability.
Victims of FARC publicly rebuke Iván Cepeda – Vicky Dávila weighs in
Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 39%8%
A video circulated showing victims of the FARC publicly rebuking Cepeda for the number of child victims. Vicky Dávila amplified the criticism on social media. The controversy caused Cepeda’s market price to tumble 8 points from 47 % on 8 Mar to 39 % on 15 Mar, while de la Espriella’s price stayed flat.
Paloma Valencia Selects Juan Daniel Oviedo as Vice-Presidential Running Mate
Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND) dips to 0%3%
Following her primary victory, Paloma Valencia selected economist Juan Daniel Oviedo as her running mate, consolidating the center-right ticket and ending Oviedo's independent presidential bid.
Paloma Valencia announces Juan Daniel Oviedo as vice-presidential candidate
Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND) dips to 0%1%
Center-right candidate Paloma Valencia announced Juan Daniel Oviedo as her vice-presidential running mate. Oviedo, an economist and former director of Colombia's statistics department, brought a technical and centrist profile to the campaign, aiming to consolidate support within the center-right coalition ahead of the presidential election.
Paloma Valencia wins Democratic Center primary for presidency
Paloma Valencia surges to 38%16%
Paloma Valencia secured the Democratic Center's nomination after winning the party's primary, becoming the main right-wing candidate and impacting market prices by consolidating conservative support.
Paloma Valencia Confirms Juan Daniel Oviedo as Her Vice-Presidential Running Mate
Following negotiations after the primary, Juan Daniel Oviedo officially joined Paloma Valencia's ticket as her vice-presidential candidate, ending his independent presidential bid.
Juan Daniel Oviedo announced as vice-presidential candidate for Paloma Valencia
Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND) dips to 0%1%
Following the March 8 legislative elections and interparty consultations, Paloma Valencia confirmed Juan Daniel Oviedo as her vice-presidential running mate, forming a center-right ticket for the presidential election. Oviedo, a former director of DANE and economist, gained significant votes in the primary.
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe launches presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 44%8%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his candidacy, positioning himself as a defender of his son’s legacy and entering a crowded field, which boosted interest in candidates perceived as rivals or allies, notably affecting Abelardo de la Espriella’s support.
Paloma Valencia's surge after strong debate performance
Paloma Valencia surges to 37%26%
Paloma Valencia's impressive debate performance led to a sharp increase in market support from 11% to 37%, signaling renewed voter interest.
Paloma Valencia sees surge in presidential campaign support
Paloma Valencia surges to 28%17%
Paloma Valencia's campaign experienced a sharp increase in market confidence, reflecting a shift in the competitive landscape.
Market reacts to narrowing candidate field ahead of March primaries
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 28%10%
As the field of presidential candidates narrowed in early March with interparty primaries, market prices adjusted to reflect the changing competitive landscape, notably affecting Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia's standings.
Iván Cepeda announces Aída Quilcué as vice-presidential running mate
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 43%5%
Cepeda's selection of Indigenous leader Aída Quilcué as his vice-presidential candidate reinforced his campaign's social justice and diversity narrative, consolidating his base and contributing to a market price increase.
Iván Cepeda announces Aida Quilcué as vice-presidential candidate
Following his overwhelming majority in the parliamentary elections, Iván Cepeda announced Aida Quilcué as his running mate, solidifying his ticket for the presidential race and reinforcing his campaign's focus on social justice and inclusion.
Claudia López wins centrist primary but fails to advance in presidential race
Claudia López (IND) plunges to 0%50%
Claudia López won the centrist primary but finished fifth in the first round of the presidential election with less than 1% of the vote, failing to advance to the runoff and marking a decline in centrist influence.
Iván Cepeda picks Indigenous leader Aída Quilcué as running mate
Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 36%8%
Cepeda announced that Indigenous leader Aída Quilcué would be his vice‑presidential running mate, shifting the campaign narrative toward indigenous rights and causing a sharp drop in his market probability as some moderate voters reacted negatively.
Ivan Cepeda names Indigenous activist Aída Quilcué as running mate
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 39%2%
Cepeda announced Indigenous leader Aida Quilcué as his vice‑presidential running mate, emphasizing a coalition with social movements. The announcement halted the prior decline and produced a modest rebound from 37 % (Mar 5) to 39 % (Mar 14), stabilising his price before the later fall.
Iván Cepeda Announces Indigenous Leader Aída Quilcué as Vice-Presidential Running Mate
Following the legislative elections, Iván Cepeda selected Senator and Indigenous leader Aída Quilcué as his running mate, sparking debate over her urban electoral appeal.
Frustrated assassination attempt on Abelardo de la Espriella during campaign event
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 19%15%
Security forces thwarted a suspected assassination attempt on De La Espriella in Envigado, heightening the campaign's tension and possibly rallying support around him due to increased visibility and sympathy.
Juan Daniel Oviedo confirmed as vice-presidential candidate for Paloma Valencia
Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND) plunges to 0%50%
Juan Daniel Oviedo, after finishing second in the center-right primary, was confirmed as the vice-presidential running mate of Paloma Valencia, consolidating the center-right ticket for the presidential election.
Paloma Valencia wins Democratic Center primary with over 3 million votes
Paloma Valencia jumps to 23%14%
Paloma Valencia's decisive victory in the Democratic Center primary established her as the official far-right candidate, initially boosting her market price. However, her support later declined as the campaign progressed.
Paloma Valencia wins center-right primary with significant majority
Claudia López (IND) dips to 0%1%
Paloma Valencia secured a decisive victory in the center-right primary election, obtaining over 3 million votes and becoming the official candidate of the Democratic Center party. This positioned her as a leading conservative contender ahead of the presidential election.
Paloma Valencia Wins Gran Consulta Primary as Juan Daniel Oviedo Finishes Second
Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND) dips to 0%1%
In the interparty primaries held alongside the legislative elections, Paloma Valencia won the Gran Consulta por Colombia with over 3 million votes, while Juan Daniel Oviedo finished second with over 1.2 million votes, ending his independent presidential run.
Iván Cepeda incriminated by child‑victim video; Vicky Dávila condemns him
Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 36%8%
A video circulated showing victims of the FARC confronting Cepeda over the number of child victims, generating negative social media reactions and pulling his market price down by eight points the next day.
Paloma Valencia Wins Primary as Juan Daniel Oviedo Secures Second Place
Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND) dips to 0%1%
In the March 8 legislative elections and interparty primaries, Paloma Valencia won the Gran Consulta por Colombia with over 3 million votes, while Juan Daniel Oviedo finished second with over 1.2 million votes.
Iván Cepeda confronted over FARC child victim figures during campaign
Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 39%8%
During the campaign, Iván Cepeda was publicly confronted by victims of child recruitment by FARC, sparking political debate and criticism, including from rival candidate Vicky Dávila, impacting Cepeda's public image and market price.
Paloma Valencia Wins Center-Right Primary as Legislative Elections Narrow the Field
Iván Cepeda Castro dips to 48%1%
The March 8 interparty primaries and legislative elections consolidated the candidate field, establishing Paloma Valencia as the definitive center-right candidate and narrowing the path for other contenders.
Paloma Valencia wins center-right primary and confirms Juan Daniel Oviedo as running mate
Paloma Valencia won the center-right primary decisively and selected Juan Daniel Oviedo as her vice-presidential candidate, consolidating the center-right ticket for the May 31 election.
Juan Daniel Oviedo confirmed as vice-presidential running mate of Paloma Valencia
Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND) drops to 1%5%
Following the March 8 interparty consultations, Oviedo was confirmed as the vice-presidential candidate alongside Paloma Valencia, consolidating a center-right coalition and impacting Oviedo's market price which later declined as the campaign progressed.
Juan Daniel Oviedo surprises in Gran Consulta, later confirmed as Paloma Valencia's vice-presidential running mate
Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND) jumps to 6%5%
Juan Daniel Oviedo emerged as a surprise contender in the center-right Gran Consulta primary, finishing second and later becoming the vice-presidential candidate for Paloma Valencia. This boosted Oviedo's profile and affected his market price.
Iván Cepeda Castro peaks in polls amid strong campaign performance
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 56%17%
Iván Cepeda Castro's market price peaked at 56% in early March 2026, reflecting strong debate performances and effective voter outreach that positioned him as a leading candidate.
Sergio Fajardo exits race after poor poll results
Sergio Fajardo (DC) plunges to 0%15%
Facing consistently low poll numbers, Sergio Fajardo suspended his campaign, driving his price to zero.
Ivan Cepeda leads in polls as presidential field narrows
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 44%5%
Senator Ivan Cepeda, from President Gustavo Petro's coalition, maintained a lead in polls, influencing market expectations for the upcoming election.
Ex-mayor Jaime Andrés Beltrán joins Abelardo de la Espriella's campaign as regional manager
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 40%3%
Jaime Andrés Beltrán, known as 'the Bukele Colombian', abandoned his Senate bid to support De la Espriella's campaign, strengthening the candidate's regional presence and boosting his market position.
Interparty primaries narrow Colombia presidential field
Paloma Valencia drops to 10%12%
Several candidates competed in interparty primaries, leading to a narrowing of the field and causing price adjustments for candidates like Paloma Valencia and Abelardo de la Espriella as voter preferences consolidated.
Iván Cepeda Castro surges in polls amid growing grassroots support
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 50%11%
Iván Cepeda Castro's market probability jumped to 50% as grassroots movements and endorsements bolstered his campaign, signaling a shift in voter sentiment.
DEA labels President Gustavo Petro a priority target in drug investigation
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 40%2%
The U.S. DEA’s designation of President Petro as a priority target raised concerns about his administration’s integrity, leading to a decline in support for candidates aligned with his coalition, particularly impacting Iván Cepeda Castro’s odds.
Political violence impacts candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay's legacy
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 30%8%
The assassination of Miguel Uribe Turbay in 2025 continued to resonate in the political landscape, with his father's candidacy and the unresolved motives behind the killing influencing voter sentiment and market prices for related candidates.
Abelardo de la Espriella announces lawsuit against Netflix
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 38%1%
De la Espriella publicly announced legal action against Netflix to defend his family's honor, which increased his media visibility and may have influenced public perception and market interest in his candidacy.
Abelardo de la Espriella announces José Manuel Restrepo as vice-presidential running mate
De la Espriella's announcement of economist and ex-minister José Manuel Restrepo as his vice-presidential candidate strengthened his campaign's credibility and appeal, leading to increased market confidence and price gains.
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe launches presidential bid
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his candidacy, reviving the Uribe political brand and drawing attention to the Historical Pact coalition, where Iván Cepeda is a leading figure, boosting his perceived electability.
Abelardo de la Espriella empata con Iván Cepeda según firma internacional de predicciones
Polymarket's international prediction platform showed De La Espriella and Iván Cepeda tied at 39% and 38% respectively, indicating a competitive race with De La Espriella gaining ground in global prediction markets.
Abelardo de la Espriella joins international right-wing alliance with Carta de Madrid
De la Espriella formalized his adhesion to the Carta de Madrid, aligning with prominent right-wing leaders like Javier Milei and Santiago Abascal. This move bolstered his international profile and solidified his right-wing credentials, likely contributing to early market confidence in his candidacy.
Abelardo de la Espriella leads AtlasIntel/Semana poll for first round
A major poll by AtlasIntel for Semana showed Abelardo de la Espriella leading the first round with 33%, narrowly ahead of Iván Cepeda at 31.3%. This early poll established De la Espriella as a top contender, boosting his market price from 39% to 39%.
AtlasIntel/Semana poll shows Abelardo de la Espriella leading first round
A major poll by AtlasIntel for Semana placed De la Espriella in the lead with 33%, narrowly ahead of Iván Cepeda at 31.3%. This early polling data likely supported market confidence in De la Espriella's viability as a frontrunner.
Iván Cepeda files criminal complaint against ex-president Pastrana over Epstein-Maxwell links
Iván Cepeda Castro plunges to 18%20%
Senator and presidential candidate Iván Cepeda announced a criminal complaint against former President Andrés Pastrana for alleged misuse of military assets to entertain Ghislaine Maxwell, linked to Jeffrey Epstein. This controversy heightened political tensions and affected Cepeda's campaign image.
Abelardo de la Espriella leads early presidential polls
Early 2026 polls showed Abelardo de la Espriella leading the presidential race, with Iván Cepeda close behind. These polls set the tone for a competitive election, highlighting the polarization between right-wing and left-wing candidates.
De La Espriella announces economist José Manuel Restrepo as running mate
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 55%5%
De La Espriella selected José Manuel Restrepo, a former finance minister, as his vice-presidential candidate, enhancing his campaign's credibility and appealing to moderate voters, which contributed to his market gains.
Iván Cepeda Files Criminal Complaint Against Former President Andrés Pastrana
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 40%1%
Senator and presidential candidate Iván Cepeda announced a criminal complaint against former President Andrés Pastrana over alleged links to Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell.
Iván Cepeda sues former President Pastrana over Epstein-Maxwell allegations
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 39%1%
Iván Cepeda filed a criminal complaint against former President Andrés Pastrana following declassified US documents linking Pastrana to associates of Jeffrey Epstein, stirring political controversy ahead of the election.
Iván Cepeda leads polls as progressive front-runner in Colombia's 2026 presidential race
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 39%2%
Polls in early 2026 showed Iván Cepeda leading the presidential race with strong support from progressive voters and those aligned with President Gustavo Petro's social reforms. This established Cepeda as the main left-wing candidate and front-runner in the election.
Abelardo de la Espriella signals political reconciliation with Vicky Dávila
De la Espriella publicly responded to Vicky Dávila's message endorsing a united front against Iván Cepeda, signaling a strategic reconciliation within the right-wing camp. This rapprochement was seen as an effort to consolidate support and strengthen De la Espriella's position, impacting market perceptions positively.
Poll Shows Tight Race Between Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Cepeda
A poll published on February 7, 2026, indicated a statistical tie between Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Cepeda, reflecting a highly competitive race. This poll likely contributed to price stabilization and minor fluctuations in their market positions.
Assassination of Abelardo de la Espriella's Campaign Coordinator in Meta
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 39%3%
On February 5, 2026, Abelardo de la Espriella's local campaign coordinator and an advisor were assassinated in Cubarral, Meta. This violent attack highlighted the dangerous security environment for political actors in Colombia and led to a sharp increase in Abelardo de la Espriella's market price as his campaign gained sympathy and attention.
Iván Cepeda Withdraws from Leftist Consultation and Commits to First Round Run
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 39%1%
Following his exclusion from the leftist consultation, Iván Cepeda officially withdrew from the March 8 consultation and announced he would run directly in the first round of the presidential election. This strategic shift affected his market price and the dynamics of the left-wing vote.
Iván Cepeda excluded from left-wing primary, forced to run directly in first round
Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 30%9%
Colombia's National Electoral Council excluded Iván Cepeda from the left-wing interparty primary, causing uncertainty and a drop in his market price from 39% to 30%. This decision fragmented the left-wing coalition and altered the electoral dynamics.
Iván Cepeda Barred from Key Leftist Primary by Electoral Authority
Iván Cepeda Castro dips to 37%3%
On February 4, 2026, Colombia's electoral authority barred Iván Cepeda from participating in a key leftist primary, weakening his coalition and forcing him to adjust his electoral strategy. This event caused fluctuations in his market price as it introduced uncertainty about his path to the presidency.
Iván Cepeda denied participation in left‑wing primary by CNE
The CNE’s decision to exclude Cepeda from the left‑wing inter‑party primary removed his main path to the presidency, prompting traders to push his market price upward as the campaign shifted to a direct first‑round run‑off strategy.
Colombian President Petro optimistic about upcoming White House meeting with Trump
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 41%7%
A diplomatic thaw between Petro and Trump, marked by preparations for a high-stakes meeting, reduced political tensions and improved market confidence in the left-wing coalition's stability, benefiting Iván Cepeda Castro's standing.
Gustavo Petro meets US President Trump, easing diplomatic tensions
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 42%8%
The high‑profile meeting reduced concerns about US sanctions, indirectly benefiting candidates aligned with Petro’s agenda, notably Iván Cepeda.
Abelardo De La Espriella announces José Manuel Restrepo as running mate
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 44%4%
The candidate announced economist and former minister José Manuel Restrepo as his vice-presidential running mate, signaling a strong, credible team that could appeal to a broader electorate and boost his campaign momentum.
Abelardo de la Espriella se acerca en última encuesta AtlasIntel
AtlasIntel's latest poll showed De La Espriella at 32.9% and Iván Cepeda at 37.6%, with De La Espriella gaining ground as the race intensified.
Abelardo de la Espriella leads AtlasIntel/Semana presidential poll
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 37%2%
A poll conducted between January 27 and February 4 showed De la Espriella leading the presidential race with 33.0% against Iván Cepeda's 31.3%, indicating a tight contest and growing support for the right-wing candidate.
Abelardo de la Espriella announces José Manuel Restrepo as vice-presidential running mate
The announcement of José Manuel Restrepo, an experienced economist and former minister, as de la Espriella's running mate strengthened his campaign's credibility and market position.
Colombian President Gustavo Petro optimistic about upcoming White House meeting with Trump
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 38%4%
President Petro expressed optimism about a scheduled meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, signaling a diplomatic thaw after months of tension and sanctions, which influenced market perceptions of political stability and candidate viability, particularly benefiting Iván Cepeda Castro.
Creemos movement endorses Abelardo de la Espriella for presidency
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 41%5%
The endorsement by the Creemos political movement, led by Medellin's mayor Federico Gutierrez, significantly strengthened De la Espriella's campaign by consolidating right-wing support and signaling a shift in opposition dynamics. This alliance contributed to De la Espriella's rise in market prices.
Creemos endorses Abelardo de la Espriella for 2026 presidency
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 47%11%
The Creemos political movement formally endorsed De la Espriella, giving the far‑right candidate a legitimacy boost that lifted his market price from the mid‑30 % region to a peak of 47 % shortly after.
De La Espriella Backs Antioquia Education Leader Patiño
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 39%1%
De La Espriella formally allied with Luis Guillermo Patiño, a Creemos candidate, to promote education reform. This strategic partnership likely strengthened his campaign program and market position.
Abelardo de la Espriella Announces Education Alliance with Antioquia Councillor Luis Guillermo Patiño
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 46%5%
De La Espriella formally allied with Patiño, bringing regional education expertise to his campaign and strengthening his opposition platform against the current government.
Colombian President Petro optimistic about upcoming White House meeting with Trump
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 42%4%
President Gustavo Petro expressed optimism about a scheduled meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, signaling a diplomatic thaw that influenced market confidence in candidates associated with Petro's coalition, including Iván Cepeda Castro.
Abelardo de la Espriella lidera la 1ª vuelta en la encuesta Atlas-Semana
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 38%2%
AtlasIntel's Semana poll showed De La Espriella leading with 33.0% in the first round scenario, ahead of Iván Cepeda at 31.3%, signaling strong early campaign performance and market confidence.
De La Espriella urges Trump to demand full guarantees for Colombian democracy
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 47%3%
De La Espriella publicly called on U.S. President Trump to ensure democratic guarantees in Colombia's election, criticizing President Petro and raising his profile as a defender of democracy against leftist influence, which likely boosted his market support.
Poll shows Iván Cepeda leading presidential vote intentions
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 40%7%
A GAD3 poll released in January 2026 showed Iván Cepeda leading with 30-40% voter intention, ahead of Abelardo de la Espriella, boosting Cepeda's market position as the left-wing frontrunner.
Colombian President Gustavo Petro optimistic about upcoming meeting with U.S. President Trump
President Petro announced optimism about a scheduled White House meeting with U.S. President Trump, signaling a diplomatic thaw after months of tension including visa revocations and sanctions. This development suggested potential easing of bilateral tensions, which could affect election dynamics and voter confidence in Petro’s coalition.
Iván Cepeda Castro gains momentum in polls amid left-wing coalition support
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 39%19%
Senator Iván Cepeda Castro, representing the Historical Pact coalition, gained significant support in polls, reflecting his rising prominence as a leading left-wing candidate. This surge influenced market prices, positioning him as a top contender.
Abelardo de la Espriella Signs Madrid Charter to Align with International Right
Abelardo de la Espriella dips to 36%4%
Abelardo de la Espriella met with Vox leader Santiago Abascal in Spain to sign the Madrid Charter, strengthening his international conservative credentials.
Luis Gilberto Murillo withdraws from presidential race, endorses Iván Cepeda
Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB) dips to 0%1%
Luis Gilberto Murillo formally withdrew from the presidential race shortly before the first round, endorsing Iván Cepeda to unify the left-wing vote and avoid fragmentation, consolidating Cepeda's position as the leading progressive candidate.
Abelardo de la Espriella joins international right-wing alliance with Carta de Madrid
De la Espriella formalized his adhesion to the Carta de Madrid, aligning with international right-wing leaders to strengthen his campaign's ideological positioning and gain international support.
Abelardo de la Espriella Announces Vice-Presidential Candidate José Manuel Restrepo
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 47%1%
De La Espriella announced his vice-presidential running mate, economist José Manuel Restrepo, signaling a strong, credible running team for his campaign.
Luis Gilberto Murillo withdraws from presidential race
Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB) dips to 0%2%
Former minister Luis Gilberto Murillo announced he would not continue his candidacy, causing his market price to collapse to zero.
Poll shows Abelardo de la Espriella leading first-round voter intent
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 44%12%
A poll released in January 2026 indicated Abelardo de la Espriella leading voter intention with 28%, ahead of Iván Cepeda at 26.5%, signaling a shift in voter preferences and boosting De la Espriella's market price significantly.
Poll shows De La Espriella would defeat Cepeda in presidential runoff
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 44%9%
An AtlasIntel poll indicated De La Espriella leading voter intent and beating Cepeda in a hypothetical runoff, signaling a shift in voter sentiment and strengthening De La Espriella's market position.
Abelardo de la Espriella Leads New AtlasIntel Poll with 28% Support
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 48%16%
An AtlasIntel poll showed conservative lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella leading the presidential race, boosting his market standing as the strongest right-wing option.
AtlasIntel poll shows Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Cepeda leading presidential race
A January 2026 AtlasIntel poll placed Abelardo de la Espriella at 28% and Iván Cepeda at 26.5%, confirming a competitive two-candidate race and boosting market confidence in both.
Presumed Attempt on Abelardo de la Espriella's Campaign Frustrated in Envigado
Abelardo de la Espriella dips to 46%1%
A man with weapons and binoculars was caught trying to infiltrate the campaign event in Envigado, leading to security concerns and a campaign statement about the need for guarantees.
Colombian President Gustavo Petro clashes with Trump over Venezuela policy
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 34%3%
President Petro's confrontational stance against U.S. policies and his defense of national sovereignty heightened political tensions, influencing voter sentiment and market perceptions of left-wing candidate Iván Cepeda Castro's prospects.
Poll shows Iván Cepeda leading Colombia's 2026 presidential race with 31.9%
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 40%4%
An Invamer poll released at the end of 2025 showed Iván Cepeda leading the presidential race with 31.9%, ahead of right-wing and centrist candidates. This reinforced his market position as the favorite.
Miguel Uribe Londoño announces presidential bid after son's assassination
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 44%6%
Following the death of his son Miguel Uribe Turbay, a slain presidential hopeful, Miguel Uribe Londoño launched his own campaign to defend his son's political legacy, impacting the market by introducing a new contender and shifting support within the conservative base.
Polymarket prediction market shows tight race between Iván Cepeda and Abelardo de la Espriella
Cryptocurrency-based prediction markets reflected a close contest between Iván Cepeda and Abelardo de la Espriella, each with roughly 36-37% implied probability of victory, indicating market uncertainty and divided voter expectations.
Polymarket shows Iván Cepeda and Abelardo de la Espriella neck-and-neck in predictions
Cryptocurrency-based prediction markets indicated a close race between Iván Cepeda and Abelardo de la Espriella, reflecting divided voter sentiment and influencing market prices for both candidates.
Paloma Valencia surges after strong debate performance
Paloma Valencia surges to 31%26%
Paloma Valencia’s impressive showing in a televised debate boosted her visibility, leading to a sharp rise in her market price.
Right-wing remains divided despite 'Gran Consulta' coalition efforts
Despite attempts to unify, the right-wing candidates including David Luna, Vicky Dávila, and Juan Daniel Oviedo remained fragmented, weakening their collective electoral strength and reflected in declining market prices for some candidates.
Right-Wing Leaders Form 'Gran Consulta' Coalition to Select Unified Candidate
Vicky Dávila (IND) dips to 1%4%
Six political leaders, including Vicky Dávila, David Luna, and Juan Daniel Oviedo, agreed to participate in an interparty primary to prevent right-wing vote fragmentation.
Right-wing coalition 'Gran Consulta' forms to unify opposition candidates
Several right-wing and centrist candidates including Vicky Dávila, David Luna Sánchez, Juan Daniel Oviedo, and others formed the 'Gran Consulta' coalition to unify their candidacies and avoid vote splitting, impacting their individual market support.
Right-wing coalition forms 'Gran Consulta' primary including Vicky Dávila and David Luna
The right-wing coalition formed the 'Gran Consulta' primary to unify opposition candidates, including journalist Vicky Dávila and former minister David Luna, aiming to avoid vote fragmentation but facing internal divisions.
Abelardo de la Espriella announces José Manuel Restrepo as vice-presidential running mate
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 41%7%
Abelardo de la Espriella announced economist and former minister José Manuel Restrepo as his vice-presidential candidate, strengthening his campaign with an experienced figure and boosting his market position.
Paloma Valencia nominated as Democratic Center's presidential candidate
Paloma Valencia plunges to 7%15%
The Democratic Center party officially nominated Paloma Valencia as its candidate for the 2026 presidential elections, marking a consolidation of the right-wing vote and boosting her market position. This event was significant for right-wing voters and affected related candidates' market shares.
Centro Democrático party selects Paloma Valencia as presidential candidate
Colombia’s right-wing Centro Democrático party chose Senator Paloma Valencia as its candidate, signaling a moderate right shift and impacting the dynamics among right-wing candidates including Abelardo de la Espriella.
Vicky Dávila files presidential candidacy with over 1.3 million signatures
Vicky Dávila (IND) drops to 1%7%
Dávila formally submitted more than 1.3 million signatures to the Registraduría, confirming her candidacy. The move was interpreted as a loss of momentum for a candidate previously seen as a possible contender, pushing her market probability from 8 % (Nov 2025) down to 1 % by early February 2026.
Vicky Dávila formalizes presidential candidacy with over 1.3 million signatures
Vicky Dávila (IND) plunges to 1%27%
Vicky Dávila officially registered her presidential candidacy, emphasizing a hardline security agenda and positioning herself as a citizen alternative without traditional party support. Despite initial polling strength, her market price declined sharply over time.
Vicky Dávila confirms presidential candidacy with over 1.3 million signatures
Vicky Dávila (IND) drops to 2%6%
Investigative journalist Vicky Dávila officially registered her presidential candidacy backed by a large number of signatures, entering the race as a nontraditional candidate and impacting her market position.
Vicky Dávila officially registers presidential candidacy with over 1.3 million signatures
Vicky Dávila (IND) plunges to 1%27%
On December 11, 2025, journalist and independent candidate Vicky Dávila formalized her presidential candidacy by submitting over 1.3 million signatures, marking a significant step in her campaign despite later declines in market support.
Iván Cepeda Castro gains traction with policy proposals
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 34%14%
Iván Cepeda Castro's detailed policy proposals and increased media presence boosted his support, reflected in a rise from 20% to 34% in market prices.
Iván Cepeda Castro gains momentum in presidential race
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 34%18%
Following a period of low polling, Iván Cepeda Castro saw a significant increase in market support as his campaign gained traction.
Invamer poll places Iván Cepeda well ahead with 31.9% of vote share
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 36%4%
The Invamer poll published in early December 2025 showed Iván Cepeda leading with 31.9%, significantly ahead of Abelardo de la Espriella at 18.2%. This poll influenced market prices, tightening the race between Cepeda and De la Espriella.
Iván Cepeda’s poll surge puts him at 42 % support
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 43%25%
Cepeda’s campaign released a poll showing a 42 % lead, prompting a sudden rally in his odds and a jump in his market price from 18 % (Nov 28) to 43 % (Dec 7).
Abelardo De La Espriella delivers nearly 4.9 million signatures to formalize presidential candidacy
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 56%6%
Abelardo De La Espriella officially submitted a record number of signatures to the Registraduría, marking a significant milestone in his campaign and signaling strong grassroots support. This bolstered his position as a leading right-wing candidate, reflected in his market price rise.
Revelations about Abelardo de la Espriella's ties to controversial figures
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 36%5%
Reports surfaced linking Abelardo de la Espriella to Alex Saab and paramilitary groups, casting doubts on his candidacy and causing a decline in his market support.
DEA designates Colombian President Gustavo Petro as 'priority target' in drug probe
Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 13%7%
The U.S. DEA named President Gustavo Petro a 'priority target' in investigations into alleged drug trafficking ties, causing political uncertainty and affecting the market's perception of candidates aligned with or against Petro, notably Iván Cepeda Castro.
Poll places Iván Cepeda well ahead with 31.9% and Abelardo de la Espriella at 18.2%
The Invamer poll published in early December showed Iván Cepeda significantly ahead of rivals, including Abelardo de la Espriella, influencing market prices to reflect Cepeda's growing lead.
Colombia authorizes euthanasia plan for invasive hippos linked to Pablo Escobar
The Colombian government approved a protocol to euthanize about 80 hippos descended from Pablo Escobar’s private zoo to control their population. The controversial environmental policy sparked local debate and reflected broader governance challenges, indirectly influencing public opinion on leadership and policy effectiveness.
Iván Cepeda leads presidential vote intentions in Invamer poll ahead of 2026 elections
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 40%27%
The Invamer poll released on 30 Nov 2025 showed Cepeda at 31.9 % versus 18.2 % for De la Espriella, driving his market price up from 13 % (early Sep) to around 40 % by mid‑January 2026.
Iván Cepeda Dominates Invamer Poll as Right-Wing Opposition Remains Fragmented
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 43%25%
The first major post-embargo poll showed Senator Iván Cepeda leading with 31.9% support, far ahead of conservative lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella.
Poll shows Iván Cepeda leading presidential vote intentions with 31.9%
A major poll by Invamer revealed Iván Cepeda leading the presidential race with 31.9% support, significantly ahead of Abelardo de la Espriella and others, reinforcing his front-runner status and influencing market prices accordingly.
Iván Cepeda leads presidential vote intentions in Colombia's 2026 election
A poll by Invamer showed Senator Iván Cepeda leading with 31.9% support, significantly ahead of right-wing Abelardo de la Espriella and centrist Sergio Fajardo. This poll reinforced Cepeda's position as the progressive front-runner and boosted market confidence in his candidacy.
Luis Gilberto Murillo's support falls to near zero in polls
Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB) dips to 0%3%
Luis Gilberto Murillo's market price collapsed as polls showed negligible support, effectively ending his viability as a contender in the election.
DEA designates President Gustavo Petro as 'priority target' in drug probe
Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 17%9%
The U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration named Colombian President Gustavo Petro a 'priority target' in investigations into alleged ties to drug traffickers. This development heightened political tensions and influenced market perceptions of candidates aligned with or opposed to Petro.
Abelardo De La Espriella unveils hardline security proposal with extreme-isolation megaprisons
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 35%2%
De La Espriella proposed a tough-on-crime policy featuring mega-prisons with extreme isolation to combat organized crime, positioning himself as the strongest candidate on security issues. This bolstered his appeal among voters concerned about crime, contributing to his rise in the market.
Poll shows Iván Cepeda leading Colombia’s presidential race with 20.9% support
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 23%3%
A national poll by Centro Nacional de Consultoria showed Iván Cepeda leading the crowded field with 20.9%, ahead of right-wing Abelardo de la Espriella at 14.4%. This reinforced Cepeda’s frontrunner status and influenced market prices.
DEA labels President Gustavo Petro a priority target in drug probe
U.S. prosecutors identified President Petro as a priority target, raising concerns about the ruling party’s stability and indirectly lowering support for candidates associated with Petro’s coalition, while benefiting opposition figures like Iván Cepeda.
Iván Cepeda Castro gains momentum with key endorsements
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 23%9%
Iván Cepeda Castro's market price rose from 14% to 23% in mid-November 2025, boosted by endorsements from influential political figures and positive media coverage enhancing his campaign visibility.
Abelardo de la Espriella gains momentum with new campaign alliances
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 44%12%
Abelardo de la Espriella's market price rose from 32% to 44% in early November 2025, coinciding with strategic campaign moves and endorsements, boosting his electoral prospects.
Poll shows Fajardo, Cepeda, and De la Espriella leading presidential race
A public poll released in early November 2025 showed Sergio Fajardo, Iván Cepeda, and Abelardo de la Espriella as the leading candidates for the 2026 presidential election, indicating a competitive race with these frontrunners.
Fajardo, Cepeda and De la Espriella lead first public poll for 2026 election
A Cifras y Conceptos poll showed Sergio Fajardo, Iván Cepeda, and Abelardo de la Espriella as leading candidates, setting the stage for a competitive race and shaping campaign strategies.
Poll shows Iván Cepeda leading presidential vote intentions in Colombia
Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 39%11%
A poll by Invamer published in November 2025 showed Senator Iván Cepeda leading the presidential race with 31.9% support, ahead of Abelardo de la Espriella at 18.2%. This poll reinforced Cepeda's position as the front-runner and influenced market expectations.
Iván Cepeda Castro gains poll momentum as left-wing candidate in Colombia
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 22%10%
Senator Iván Cepeda Castro, aligned with President Petro’s left-wing coalition, surged ahead in several polls, reflecting growing support for his platform. This shift impacted market prices, with Cepeda’s chances improving while others like Sergio Fajardo and Vicky Dávila declined.
Cifras y Conceptos poll puts Claudia López at 2 % support ahead of 2026 elections
Claudia López (IND) drops to 0%6%
A Cifras y Conceptos poll published on 27 Oct 2025 showed López at just 2 % support, prompting a steep decline in her market price from 6 % (early Aug) to 0 % by late Dec 2025.
Iván Cepeda elected as left’s presidential candidate in Historic Pact primary
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 40%29%
Iván Cepeda won the left-wing coalition primary with 64% of the vote, becoming the official candidate for the 2026 presidential election. This solidified his position as the leading left candidate and caused a significant market shift in his favor.
Iván Cepeda wins Historic Pact primary with 64.4% of votes
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 34%16%
Iván Cepeda secured a decisive victory in the Pacto Histórico primary, winning 64.4% of the vote and becoming the left's official presidential candidate. This solidified his frontrunner status and caused his market price to rise significantly.
Iván Cepeda wins Pacto Histórico primary, becoming presidential candidate
Iván Cepeda won the Pacto Histórico consultation, securing his position as the coalition's presidential candidate, which boosted his profile and market support as a leading left-wing contender.
Explosive attack kills 13 on bus in southwestern Colombia amid rising violence
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 44%6%
A deadly bombing on a bus in Cauca region killed 13 people and injured dozens, attributed to dissident armed groups linked to drug trafficking. The attack heightened security concerns and influenced voter preferences toward candidates promising tough measures against violence and crime.
Abelardo de la Espriella emerges as leading right-wing candidate
Abelardo de la Espriella gained prominence as a right-wing candidate with a strong digital presence and alliances, including naming José Manuel Restrepo as his vice-presidential running mate, consolidating his position as a main contender on the right.
Abelardo de la Espriella gains endorsement from conservative party
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 38%10%
The Conservative Party officially endorsed Abelardo de la Espriella, raising his profile among right‑leaning voters and prompting a price increase.
Abelardo de la Espriella joins international right-wing alliance with Carta de Madrid
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 35%14%
Abelardo de la Espriella formalized his adhesion to the Carta de Madrid, aligning with international right-wing leaders, which enhanced his profile and market support among conservative voters.
Assassination of presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay shocks Colombia
The assassination of Miguel Uribe Turbay during a campaign rally in June 2025 and his subsequent death in August 2025 shocked the nation, impacting the political landscape and influencing voter sentiment and market prices for related candidates, including Miguel Uribe Londoño who later announced his candidacy.
Abelardo de la Espriella's campaign faces violent attack on team in Arauca
An attack on Abelardo de la Espriella's campaign coordinator's vehicle in Arauca was denounced as political intimidation, highlighting the tense and violent environment surrounding the election and rallying support for De la Espriella.
Assassination of presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay shocks election race
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 26%24%
The killing of Miguel Uribe Turbay, a prominent candidate, introduced volatility and reshaped the right-wing field, affecting market prices for Abelardo de la Espriella and others.
Colombian officials report failure of FARC rebels to surrender assets as per peace deal
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 22%6%
The Colombian government revealed that former FARC rebels have not fully complied with the 2016 peace agreement, failing to surrender promised gold, land, and cash. This undermined peace efforts and raised security concerns, affecting voter sentiment and the standing of candidates promising stronger security measures.
Historic Pact narrows left-wing presidential candidates to three
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 33%15%
Following President Gustavo Petro's intervention, the Historic Pact coalition reduced its presidential contenders to three, including Iván Cepeda, consolidating his position as the left-wing frontrunner and influencing market confidence.
Gustavo Bolívar Withdraws from Left-Wing Presidential Primary to Endorse Iván Cepeda
Gustavo Bolívar (HC) drops to 0%9%
Former senator Gustavo Bolívar announced his withdrawal from the Pacto Histórico primary, narrowing the left-wing field and endorsing Senator Iván Cepeda Castro.
Council of State threatens to disqualify Juan Daniel Oviedo
Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND) dips to 0%2%
A court ruling threatened to invalidate Oviedo’s candidacy, driving his market price down from 2 % (Sep 22) to 0 % (Sep 30). The decision was later reversed, but the damage to his market perception remained.
Council of State admits tutela to revisit Juan Daniel Oviedo’s ineligibility case
Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND) rises to 1%1%
A citizen’s tutela seeking to reopen Oviedo’s ineligibility case was accepted by the Council of State. The uncertainty lifted his market price briefly from 0 % to 1 % on 23 Sep 2025 and stayed at 1 % through February 2026.
Consejo de Estado admits tutela that could disqualify Juan Daniel Oviedo from presidential race
Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND) rises to 1%1%
A tutela filed against Oviedo was admitted by the Consejo de Estado, raising doubts about his eligibility. The legal uncertainty caused his market probability to fall to near‑zero (0 % in Oct 2025) before recovering slightly to 1 % after a court decision in January 2026.
Nicolás Maduro endorses Vicky Dávila for Colombia presidency, sparking controversy
Vicky Dávila (IND) drops to 19%9%
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro publicly declared support for Vicky Dávila's presidential candidacy, generating political debate and media attention in Colombia. This endorsement influenced perceptions of Dávila's campaign and market interest.
Vicky Dávila pushes “Plan Colombia 2.0” in Miami interview
Vicky Dávila (IND) drops to 1%11%
In a Miami‑Herald interview Dávila presented a hard‑line security agenda and called for a “Plan Colombia 2.0”. The story generated a wave of media attention that coincided with the first sharp decline of her market price from 12 % (Sept 11) to 1 % (Sept 22). Analysts linked the drop to the perception that her platform was too narrowly focused for a fragmented field.
Vicky Dávila launches presidential campaign with hardline security agenda
Vicky Dávila (IND) plunges to 18%32%
Journalist Vicky Dávila entered the presidential race emphasizing a tough stance on drug trafficking and security, initially gaining attention but later losing market support as her campaign faltered.
Abelardo de la Espriella's support dips sharply after campaign missteps
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 26%24%
Abelardo de la Espriella's market price dropped from 50% to 26% in early September 2025, likely due to negative media coverage and campaign errors that eroded voter confidence.
Abelardo de la Espriella faces campaign challenges, support dips
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 27%23%
Following initial enthusiasm, Abelardo de la Espriella's campaign encountered setbacks including criticism and strategic missteps, causing his market support to drop from 50% to 27%.
Gustavo Bolívar proposes dismantling the National Electoral Council, then withdraws candidacy
Gustavo Bolívar (HC) drops to 0%12%
Bolívar publicly announced a platform to dismantle the National Electoral Council, but on 26 Sep 2025 he withdrew from the race after the Historic Pact consolidated behind Cepeda, sending his market price from 12 % (early Sep) to 0 % by late Oct 2025.
Abelardo de la Espriella's price volatility amid campaign controversies
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 56%31%
Abelardo de la Espriella's market price fluctuated significantly in early September, likely due to emerging controversies about his legal career and political positions, causing swings between 25% and 56%.
Poll shows Iván Cepeda leading historic pact coalition
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 25%12%
A national poll released in early September placed Iván Cepeda at the forefront of the Historical Pact, boosting his perceived electability and driving his price upward.
Colombia’s left-wing coalition announces 10 candidates for primary ahead of 2026 election
Iván Cepeda Castro plunges to 11%39%
The ruling left-wing coalition, Pacto Histórico, announced 10 candidates competing in the primary to select their presidential candidate, including Iván Cepeda. This event marked the start of the left's candidate selection process, influencing early market positioning.
Father of slain Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay announces presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 44%6%
Miguel Uribe Londoño, father of the murdered presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay, announced his candidacy to defend his son's political legacy, despite a fallout with the Democratic Center party. This event influenced the market by introducing a new conservative candidate, affecting Abelardo de la Espriella's and Iván Cepeda Castro's prospects.
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay announces presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 27%23%
Miguel Uribe Londoño, father of the killed presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay, announced his candidacy aiming to defend his son's political legacy, despite leaving the Democratic Center party. This event influenced market perceptions of Abelardo de la Espriella's and Iván Cepeda Castro's chances, as it introduced a new contender linked to a significant political event.
Miguel Uribe Londoño announces presidential bid after son's assassination
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 26%24%
Following the assassination of his son, presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay, Miguel Uribe Londoño launched his own presidential campaign to defend his son's political legacy, impacting the market by introducing a new contender from the Democratic Colombia party and shifting support away from other candidates.
Father of slain Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay announces presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 44%6%
Miguel Uribe Londoño, father of the killed presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay, announced his candidacy to defend his son's political legacy, running under Democratic Colombia after leaving the Democratic Center party. This event influenced market perceptions of Abelardo de la Espriella's and Iván Cepeda Castro's chances as new dynamics emerged.
Initial polling shows Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Cepeda Castro as frontrunners
Early polling data positioned Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Cepeda Castro as the leading candidates, each starting with a 50% market probability, reflecting strong initial support and setting the stage for a competitive race.
Luis Gilberto Murillo's campaign falters amid low public support
Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB) plunges to 2%48%
Luis Gilberto Murillo's market price plummeted from 50% to near 2% in August 2025, reflecting poor campaign performance and lack of voter traction, leading to a collapse in his election chances.
Abelardo de la Espriella's support drops sharply early in campaign
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 27%23%
Abelardo de la Espriella's market price fell from 50% to 27% by early September 2025, indicating early campaign volatility and challenges.
Father of killed Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 26%24%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his candidacy to defend his son's political legacy after his son was killed during a campaign rally, impacting the market's perception of the race.
Gustavo Bolívar reaches 12 % in national poll
Gustavo Bolívar (HC) jumps to 11%9%
A nationwide opinion poll placed Bolívar at 12 % support, the highest among the candidates at that moment, which briefly lifted his market price from 2 % (Aug 9) to 11 % (Aug 20). Subsequent polls showing a decline caused the price to fall back to 0 % by early September.
Father of slain Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe announces presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 45%5%
Miguel Uribe Londoño, father of the murdered presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay, announced his candidacy to defend his son's political legacy, despite falling out with the Democratic Center party. This event increased attention on Uribe Londoño's campaign, impacting his market price.
Miguel Uribe Londoño announces presidential bid after son's death
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 26%24%
Miguel Uribe Londoño, father of slain presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay, announced his candidacy to defend his son's political legacy, impacting the race by introducing a new contender with ties to the Democratic Center party. This announcement likely influenced Abelardo de la Espriella's early price movements as the conservative field adjusted.
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe announces presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella dips to 46%4%
Miguel Uribe Londoño, father of the murdered presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay, announced his candidacy to defend his son's political legacy, impacting the Democratic Center and the broader election dynamics.
Abelardo de la Espriella's campaign team targeted in attack in Arauca
An attack on Abelardo de la Espriella's campaign coordinator's vehicle in Arauca heightened concerns about political violence, rallying support and sympathy for his campaign.
Luis Gilberto Murillo's support collapses to near zero in early campaign phase
Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB) plunges to 2%48%
Luis Gilberto Murillo's market price dropped sharply from 50% to 2% by mid-August 2025, reflecting a rapid loss of viability as a presidential candidate early in the campaign period.
Claudia López's candidacy loses momentum, support falls sharply
Claudia López (IND) plunges to 11%39%
Claudia López's market price dropped from 50% to 11% by mid-August 2025, signaling a significant decline in her presidential campaign viability.
Assassination of presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay shocks Colombia
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 38%12%
The killing of Miguel Uribe Turbay, a presidential candidate, created political turmoil and uncertainty in the election race, impacting the market by introducing his father Miguel Uribe Londoño as a new contender, which affected Abelardo de la Espriella's and Iván Cepeda's market prices.
Miguel Uribe Londoño announces presidential bid after son’s assassination
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 38%12%
Miguel Uribe Londoño, father of the killed candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay, launched his presidential campaign representing Democratic Colombia after leaving the Democratic Center party due to internal disputes. This event introduced a new contender and shifted dynamics among right-wing candidates, impacting Abelardo de la Espriella’s and others’ market positions.
Registraduría validates Luis Gilberto Murillo’s presidential candidacy
Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB) rises to 2%2%
The Registraduría officially certified Murillo’s candidacy after he met the 3 % signature threshold. The market temporarily rose from 0 % (Aug 1) to 2 % (Aug 9) before slumping back to 0 % as the novelty faded.
Vicky Dávila's support collapses amid campaign struggles
Vicky Dávila (IND) plunges to 28%22%
Vicky Dávila's market price dropped sharply as her campaign failed to gain traction, reflected in polls and media coverage. This decline was part of a broader trend of diminishing chances for several minor candidates.
Poll shows right-wing Abelardo de la Espriella leading Colombia presidential race
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 56%6%
A poll indicated Abelardo de la Espriella leading the presidential race, reflecting early conservative and centrist consolidation against Iván Cepeda. This boosted De la Espriella's market price while pressuring Cepeda's.
Abelardo de la Espriella names ex‑Bucaramanga mayor as regional campaign manager
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 39%17%
De la Espriella announced the recruitment of former Bucaramanga mayor Jaime Beltrán as a regional manager, a move that sparked a brief rally in his market price (peaking at 56 % on 1 Sep 2025) before settling back to the mid‑30 % range.
Miguel Uribe Londoño announces presidential bid honoring slain son
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 26%24%
Miguel Uribe Londoño, father of the murdered candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay, announced his presidential candidacy, aiming to continue his son's political legacy. This announcement introduced a new dynamic in the race, affecting perceptions of candidates linked to the Democratic Center and shifting market prices.
Colombia's left-wing coalition announces 10 candidates for 2026 presidential primary
The Pacto Histórico coalition revealed its slate of 10 candidates competing in the primary, including Iván Cepeda and others allied with President Gustavo Petro. This announcement set the stage for the primary contest and influenced early market positioning.
Vicky Dávila announces presidential run on conservative citizen platform
Vicky Dávila (IND) plunges to 28%22%
Journalist Vicky Dávila declared her candidacy for the presidency running as an independent on a conservative citizen platform, initially gaining some market attention but later losing support as polls showed limited chances.
Abelardo de la Espriella announces presidential candidacy with right-wing platform
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 56%6%
Abelardo de la Espriella officially launched his presidential campaign promoting conservative policies such as expanding gun rights and closing the Special Jurisdiction for Peace, which initially boosted his market support from 50% to near 56%.
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