Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the Federal Open Market Committee's January 28, March 18, and April 29, 2026 meetings, as the Fed maintained the federal funds target range at 3½ to 3¾ percent in unanimous or near-unanimous votes. This positioning stems from resilient U.S. economic expansion, a firm labor market, and inflation cooling modestly—April CPI rose 0.9% monthly and 3.3% yearly, core at 2.6% yearly—yet remaining above the 2% target, prompting officials to prioritize data-dependent restraint over easing. March dot plot projections still envision one 2026 cut later, but recent downside surprises in inflation proved insufficient to shift policy. Scenarios challenging this near-certainty, such as sharper economic deterioration or sub-2% inflation, did not materialize; Chair Powell's April 29 press conference may refine forward guidance ahead of June deliberations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoDecisioni della Fed (gen-apr)
Decisioni della Fed (gen-apr)
Pausa–pausa–pausa 100.0%
Taglio–pausa–pausa <1%
Taglio–Taglio–Pausa <1%
Pausa–Taglio–Pausa <1%
$695,645 Vol.
$695,645 Vol.
29 apr 2026
Taglio–pausa–pausa
No
Taglio–Taglio–Pausa
No
Pausa–pausa–pausa
Sì
Pausa–Taglio–Pausa
No
Altro
No
Taglio–Pausa–Taglio
No
Taglio–Taglio–Taglio
No
Pausa–Pausa–Taglio
No
Pausa–Taglio–Taglio
No
Pausa–pausa–pausa 100.0%
Taglio–pausa–pausa <1%
Taglio–Taglio–Pausa <1%
Pausa–Taglio–Pausa <1%
$695,645 Vol.
$695,645 Vol.
29 apr 2026
Taglio–pausa–pausa
$2,755 Vol.
No
Taglio–Taglio–Pausa
$6,537 Vol.
No
Pausa–pausa–pausa
$116,256 Vol.
Sì
Pausa–Taglio–Pausa
$0 Vol.
No
Altro
$289,268 Vol.
No
Taglio–Pausa–Taglio
$8,555 Vol.
No
Taglio–Taglio–Taglio
$22,139 Vol.
No
Pausa–Pausa–Taglio
$250,134 Vol.
No
Pausa–Taglio–Taglio
$0 Vol.
No
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the Federal Open Market Committee's January 28, March 18, and April 29, 2026 meetings, as the Fed maintained the federal funds target range at 3½ to 3¾ percent in unanimous or near-unanimous votes. This positioning stems from resilient U.S. economic expansion, a firm labor market, and inflation cooling modestly—April CPI rose 0.9% monthly and 3.3% yearly, core at 2.6% yearly—yet remaining above the 2% target, prompting officials to prioritize data-dependent restraint over easing. March dot plot projections still envision one 2026 cut later, but recent downside surprises in inflation proved insufficient to shift policy. Scenarios challenging this near-certainty, such as sharper economic deterioration or sub-2% inflation, did not materialize; Chair Powell's April 29 press conference may refine forward guidance ahead of June deliberations.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercato aperto: Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ET
Volume
$695,645Data di fine
29 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the Federal Open Market Committee's January 28, March 18, and April 29, 2026 meetings, as the Fed maintained the federal funds target range at 3½ to 3¾ percent in unanimous or near-unanimous votes. This positioning stems from resilient U.S. economic expansion, a firm labor market, and inflation cooling modestly—April CPI rose 0.9% monthly and 3.3% yearly, core at 2.6% yearly—yet remaining above the 2% target, prompting officials to prioritize data-dependent restraint over easing. March dot plot projections still envision one 2026 cut later, but recent downside surprises in inflation proved insufficient to shift policy. Scenarios challenging this near-certainty, such as sharper economic deterioration or sub-2% inflation, did not materialize; Chair Powell's April 29 press conference may refine forward guidance ahead of June deliberations.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$695,645Data di fine
29 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the Federal Open Market Committee's January 28, March 18, and April 29, 2026 meetings, as the Fed maintained the federal funds target range at 3½ to 3¾ percent in unanimous or near-unanimous votes. This positioning stems from resilient U.S. economic expansion, a firm labor market, and inflation cooling modestly—April CPI rose 0.9% monthly and 3.3% yearly, core at 2.6% yearly—yet remaining above the 2% target, prompting officials to prioritize data-dependent restraint over easing. March dot plot projections still envision one 2026 cut later, but recent downside surprises in inflation proved insufficient to shift policy. Scenarios challenging this near-certainty, such as sharper economic deterioration or sub-2% inflation, did not materialize; Chair Powell's April 29 press conference may refine forward guidance ahead of June deliberations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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