Recent labor market resilience, with August nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000 and unemployment holding at 4.1%, alongside headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year in July, underpins the near-even market-implied odds between no change and a 25-basis-point hike at the December FOMC meeting. Hawkish signals from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and revised forecasts from firms like UBS for increases in both September and December have narrowed the gap, as traders weigh supply-driven inflation risks against contained core readings near 2.5%. The September 15-16 policy decision and August CPI release on September 11 represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the balance, given the current target range of 3.50%-3.75% and dot-plot projections favoring higher rates by year-end. This tight contest highlights uncertainty over whether data will sustain the hawkish tilt or ease pressures enough for a hold.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNessun cambiamento 48%
25 bps increase 44%
25 bps decrease 6.7%
50+ bps increase 1.4%
$558,148 Vol.
$558,148 Vol.
9 dic 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
7%
Nessun cambiamento
48%
25 bps increase
44%
50+ bps increase
1%
Nessun cambiamento 48%
25 bps increase 44%
25 bps decrease 6.7%
50+ bps increase 1.4%
$558,148 Vol.
$558,148 Vol.
9 dic 2026
50+ bps decrease
$91,959 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$139,970 Vol.
7%
Nessun cambiamento
$97,753 Vol.
48%
25 bps increase
$139,595 Vol.
44%
50+ bps increase
$88,872 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent labor market resilience, with August nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000 and unemployment holding at 4.1%, alongside headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year in July, underpins the near-even market-implied odds between no change and a 25-basis-point hike at the December FOMC meeting. Hawkish signals from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and revised forecasts from firms like UBS for increases in both September and December have narrowed the gap, as traders weigh supply-driven inflation risks against contained core readings near 2.5%. The September 15-16 policy decision and August CPI release on September 11 represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the balance, given the current target range of 3.50%-3.75% and dot-plot projections favoring higher rates by year-end. This tight contest highlights uncertainty over whether data will sustain the hawkish tilt or ease pressures enough for a hold.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercato aperto: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Volume
$558,148Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent labor market resilience, with August nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000 and unemployment holding at 4.1%, alongside headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year in July, underpins the near-even market-implied odds between no change and a 25-basis-point hike at the December FOMC meeting. Hawkish signals from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and revised forecasts from firms like UBS for increases in both September and December have narrowed the gap, as traders weigh supply-driven inflation risks against contained core readings near 2.5%. The September 15-16 policy decision and August CPI release on September 11 represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the balance, given the current target range of 3.50%-3.75% and dot-plot projections favoring higher rates by year-end. This tight contest highlights uncertainty over whether data will sustain the hawkish tilt or ease pressures enough for a hold.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$558,148Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Recent labor market resilience, with August nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000 and unemployment holding at 4.1%, alongside headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year in July, underpins the near-even market-implied odds between no change and a 25-basis-point hike at the December FOMC meeting. Hawkish signals from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and revised forecasts from firms like UBS for increases in both September and December have narrowed the gap, as traders weigh supply-driven inflation risks against contained core readings near 2.5%. The September 15-16 policy decision and August CPI release on September 11 represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the balance, given the current target range of 3.50%-3.75% and dot-plot projections favoring higher rates by year-end. This tight contest highlights uncertainty over whether data will sustain the hawkish tilt or ease pressures enough for a hold.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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