Traders are pricing an overwhelming 76.5% implied probability on a pause-pause-pause path for the federal funds rate through the June, July, and September FOMC meetings, driven by sticky inflation readings and a still-resilient labor market that have kept the Federal Reserve on hold. Recent communications from Fed officials have reinforced data dependence without signaling near-term easing, while incoming CPI and employment figures have validated the market's cautious stance and reduced odds on any cut sequence to single digits. This pricing aligns closely with the Fed's latest dot plot and contrasts with earlier expectations for policy relief, as Treasury yields and forward curves continue to reflect limited near-term rate volatility. Upcoming June CPI and employment data releases remain the key catalysts that could shift these probabilities before the next policy decisions.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाPause–Pause–Pause 76%
Pause–Pause–Cut 11.8%
Other 6%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.7%
नया
नया
16 सित, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
<1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
76%
Pause–Pause–Cut
12%
Pause–Cut–Pause
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
6%
Pause–Pause–Pause 76%
Pause–Pause–Cut 11.8%
Other 6%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.7%
नया
नया
16 सित, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$488 वॉल्यूम
1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$540 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$340 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$401 वॉल्यूम
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$1,148 वॉल्यूम
76%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$331 वॉल्यूम
12%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$230 वॉल्यूम
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$276 वॉल्यूम
1%
Other
$318 वॉल्यूम
6%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTraders are pricing an overwhelming 76.5% implied probability on a pause-pause-pause path for the federal funds rate through the June, July, and September FOMC meetings, driven by sticky inflation readings and a still-resilient labor market that have kept the Federal Reserve on hold. Recent communications from Fed officials have reinforced data dependence without signaling near-term easing, while incoming CPI and employment figures have validated the market's cautious stance and reduced odds on any cut sequence to single digits. This pricing aligns closely with the Fed's latest dot plot and contrasts with earlier expectations for policy relief, as Treasury yields and forward curves continue to reflect limited near-term rate volatility. Upcoming June CPI and employment data releases remain the key catalysts that could shift these probabilities before the next policy decisions.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
बाज़ार खुला: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$4,072समाप्ति तिथि
16 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTraders are pricing an overwhelming 76.5% implied probability on a pause-pause-pause path for the federal funds rate through the June, July, and September FOMC meetings, driven by sticky inflation readings and a still-resilient labor market that have kept the Federal Reserve on hold. Recent communications from Fed officials have reinforced data dependence without signaling near-term easing, while incoming CPI and employment figures have validated the market's cautious stance and reduced odds on any cut sequence to single digits. This pricing aligns closely with the Fed's latest dot plot and contrasts with earlier expectations for policy relief, as Treasury yields and forward curves continue to reflect limited near-term rate volatility. Upcoming June CPI and employment data releases remain the key catalysts that could shift these probabilities before the next policy decisions.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
वॉल्यूम
$4,072समाप्ति तिथि
16 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders are pricing an overwhelming 76.5% implied probability on a pause-pause-pause path for the federal funds rate through the June, July, and September FOMC meetings, driven by sticky inflation readings and a still-resilient labor market that have kept the Federal Reserve on hold. Recent communications from Fed officials have reinforced data dependence without signaling near-term easing, while incoming CPI and employment figures have validated the market's cautious stance and reduced odds on any cut sequence to single digits. This pricing aligns closely with the Fed's latest dot plot and contrasts with earlier expectations for policy relief, as Treasury yields and forward curves continue to reflect limited near-term rate volatility. Upcoming June CPI and employment data releases remain the key catalysts that could shift these probabilities before the next policy decisions.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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