Elevated May 2026 CPI data, showing headline inflation accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year amid a sharp energy price surge linked to geopolitical tensions, forms the primary driver behind the 74.5% market-implied probability of Pause–Pause–Pause across the June, July, and September FOMC meetings. Traders interpret the latest prints—core CPI at 2.9% and monthly gains aligned with expectations—as reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s higher-for-longer stance following the April hold at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range. With the June 16–17 meeting underway and July data releases ahead, limited near-term relief in inflation metrics sustains the consensus against near-term easing, while smaller probabilities for mixed sequences reflect residual uncertainty around the pace of any later moderation.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाPause–Pause–Pause 75%
Pause–Pause–Cut 13.0%
Other 9%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.7%
नया
नया
16 सित, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
<1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
<1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
75%
Pause–Pause–Cut
13%
Pause–Cut–Pause
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
9%
Pause–Pause–Pause 75%
Pause–Pause–Cut 13.0%
Other 9%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.7%
नया
नया
16 सित, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$488 वॉल्यूम
1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$540 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$340 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$354 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$1,103 वॉल्यूम
75%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$331 वॉल्यूम
13%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$230 वॉल्यूम
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$276 वॉल्यूम
1%
Other
$318 वॉल्यूम
9%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated May 2026 CPI data, showing headline inflation accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year amid a sharp energy price surge linked to geopolitical tensions, forms the primary driver behind the 74.5% market-implied probability of Pause–Pause–Pause across the June, July, and September FOMC meetings. Traders interpret the latest prints—core CPI at 2.9% and monthly gains aligned with expectations—as reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s higher-for-longer stance following the April hold at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range. With the June 16–17 meeting underway and July data releases ahead, limited near-term relief in inflation metrics sustains the consensus against near-term easing, while smaller probabilities for mixed sequences reflect residual uncertainty around the pace of any later moderation.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
बाज़ार खुला: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$3,979समाप्ति तिथि
16 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated May 2026 CPI data, showing headline inflation accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year amid a sharp energy price surge linked to geopolitical tensions, forms the primary driver behind the 74.5% market-implied probability of Pause–Pause–Pause across the June, July, and September FOMC meetings. Traders interpret the latest prints—core CPI at 2.9% and monthly gains aligned with expectations—as reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s higher-for-longer stance following the April hold at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range. With the June 16–17 meeting underway and July data releases ahead, limited near-term relief in inflation metrics sustains the consensus against near-term easing, while smaller probabilities for mixed sequences reflect residual uncertainty around the pace of any later moderation.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
वॉल्यूम
$3,979समाप्ति तिथि
16 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated May 2026 CPI data, showing headline inflation accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year amid a sharp energy price surge linked to geopolitical tensions, forms the primary driver behind the 74.5% market-implied probability of Pause–Pause–Pause across the June, July, and September FOMC meetings. Traders interpret the latest prints—core CPI at 2.9% and monthly gains aligned with expectations—as reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s higher-for-longer stance following the April hold at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range. With the June 16–17 meeting underway and July data releases ahead, limited near-term relief in inflation metrics sustains the consensus against near-term easing, while smaller probabilities for mixed sequences reflect residual uncertainty around the pace of any later moderation.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न