Elevated May 2026 CPI inflation at 4.2% year-over-year—the highest since 2023, fueled by energy price spikes amid geopolitical tensions—combined with a resilient labor market has anchored trader expectations for no changes to the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range at the June 16-17, July 28-29, and September 15-16 FOMC meetings. This supports the 77% market-implied probability on Pause-Pause-Pause, consistent with futures pricing and economist forecasts showing the Fed maintaining a higher-for-longer stance under new Chair Kevin Warsh. The upcoming June decision, widely expected to hold rates steady with possible removal of any easing bias, plus subsequent data on inflation trajectory and employment, will shape whether probabilities shift away from the dominant pause sequence.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाPause–Pause–Pause 75%
Pause–Pause–Cut 12.6%
Other 9%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.6%
नया
नया
16 सित, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
<1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
<1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
75%
Pause–Pause–Cut
13%
Pause–Cut–Pause
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
9%
Pause–Pause–Pause 75%
Pause–Pause–Cut 12.6%
Other 9%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.6%
नया
नया
16 सित, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$488 वॉल्यूम
1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$540 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$340 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$354 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$1,103 वॉल्यूम
75%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$331 वॉल्यूम
13%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$230 वॉल्यूम
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$276 वॉल्यूम
1%
Other
$318 वॉल्यूम
9%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated May 2026 CPI inflation at 4.2% year-over-year—the highest since 2023, fueled by energy price spikes amid geopolitical tensions—combined with a resilient labor market has anchored trader expectations for no changes to the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range at the June 16-17, July 28-29, and September 15-16 FOMC meetings. This supports the 77% market-implied probability on Pause-Pause-Pause, consistent with futures pricing and economist forecasts showing the Fed maintaining a higher-for-longer stance under new Chair Kevin Warsh. The upcoming June decision, widely expected to hold rates steady with possible removal of any easing bias, plus subsequent data on inflation trajectory and employment, will shape whether probabilities shift away from the dominant pause sequence.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
बाज़ार खुला: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$3,979समाप्ति तिथि
16 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated May 2026 CPI inflation at 4.2% year-over-year—the highest since 2023, fueled by energy price spikes amid geopolitical tensions—combined with a resilient labor market has anchored trader expectations for no changes to the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range at the June 16-17, July 28-29, and September 15-16 FOMC meetings. This supports the 77% market-implied probability on Pause-Pause-Pause, consistent with futures pricing and economist forecasts showing the Fed maintaining a higher-for-longer stance under new Chair Kevin Warsh. The upcoming June decision, widely expected to hold rates steady with possible removal of any easing bias, plus subsequent data on inflation trajectory and employment, will shape whether probabilities shift away from the dominant pause sequence.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
वॉल्यूम
$3,979समाप्ति तिथि
16 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated May 2026 CPI inflation at 4.2% year-over-year—the highest since 2023, fueled by energy price spikes amid geopolitical tensions—combined with a resilient labor market has anchored trader expectations for no changes to the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range at the June 16-17, July 28-29, and September 15-16 FOMC meetings. This supports the 77% market-implied probability on Pause-Pause-Pause, consistent with futures pricing and economist forecasts showing the Fed maintaining a higher-for-longer stance under new Chair Kevin Warsh. The upcoming June decision, widely expected to hold rates steady with possible removal of any easing bias, plus subsequent data on inflation trajectory and employment, will shape whether probabilities shift away from the dominant pause sequence.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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