Robust May 2026 employment gains that exceeded expectations, alongside persistent inflation pressures and elevated oil prices, have anchored trader consensus around an 78% implied probability for Pause-Pause-Pause across the June 16-17, July 28-29, and September 15-16 FOMC meetings. The federal funds target remains steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range, with the effective rate near 3.62% as of mid-June. Market-implied odds reflect a data-dependent stance under new Chair Kevin Warsh, with institutions like Goldman Sachs now projecting the first cuts only in 2027. Softer inflation prints have only marginally lifted alternatives such as Pause-Pause-Cut to 12.5%, while upcoming labor and CPI releases through summer will test this hold path.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाPause–Pause–Pause 80%
Pause–Pause–Cut 12.3%
Other 6%
Pause–Cut–Pause 2.5%
नया
नया
16 सित, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
78%
Pause–Pause–Cut
12%
Pause–Cut–Pause
3%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
6%
Pause–Pause–Pause 80%
Pause–Pause–Cut 12.3%
Other 6%
Pause–Cut–Pause 2.5%
नया
नया
16 सित, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$488 वॉल्यूम
1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$641 वॉल्यूम
1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$393 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$401 वॉल्यूम
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$1,148 वॉल्यूम
78%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$331 वॉल्यूम
12%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$230 वॉल्यूम
3%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$276 वॉल्यूम
1%
Other
$330 वॉल्यूम
6%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRobust May 2026 employment gains that exceeded expectations, alongside persistent inflation pressures and elevated oil prices, have anchored trader consensus around an 78% implied probability for Pause-Pause-Pause across the June 16-17, July 28-29, and September 15-16 FOMC meetings. The federal funds target remains steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range, with the effective rate near 3.62% as of mid-June. Market-implied odds reflect a data-dependent stance under new Chair Kevin Warsh, with institutions like Goldman Sachs now projecting the first cuts only in 2027. Softer inflation prints have only marginally lifted alternatives such as Pause-Pause-Cut to 12.5%, while upcoming labor and CPI releases through summer will test this hold path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
बाज़ार खुला: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$4,238समाप्ति तिथि
16 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRobust May 2026 employment gains that exceeded expectations, alongside persistent inflation pressures and elevated oil prices, have anchored trader consensus around an 78% implied probability for Pause-Pause-Pause across the June 16-17, July 28-29, and September 15-16 FOMC meetings. The federal funds target remains steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range, with the effective rate near 3.62% as of mid-June. Market-implied odds reflect a data-dependent stance under new Chair Kevin Warsh, with institutions like Goldman Sachs now projecting the first cuts only in 2027. Softer inflation prints have only marginally lifted alternatives such as Pause-Pause-Cut to 12.5%, while upcoming labor and CPI releases through summer will test this hold path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
वॉल्यूम
$4,238समाप्ति तिथि
16 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Robust May 2026 employment gains that exceeded expectations, alongside persistent inflation pressures and elevated oil prices, have anchored trader consensus around an 78% implied probability for Pause-Pause-Pause across the June 16-17, July 28-29, and September 15-16 FOMC meetings. The federal funds target remains steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range, with the effective rate near 3.62% as of mid-June. Market-implied odds reflect a data-dependent stance under new Chair Kevin Warsh, with institutions like Goldman Sachs now projecting the first cuts only in 2027. Softer inflation prints have only marginally lifted alternatives such as Pause-Pause-Cut to 12.5%, while upcoming labor and CPI releases through summer will test this hold path.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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