Persistent inflation pressures, with April 2026 CPI rising to 3.8% year-over-year amid energy price shocks, combined with the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, underpin the 92.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. Recent communications and futures pricing reflect trader consensus that the central bank will maintain its cautious stance given anchored long-term expectations and limited evidence of cooling price pressures. A 25 basis point hike carries just 6.5% odds, reflecting residual risks from geopolitical tensions. Scenarios that could realistically challenge the no-change outlook include a sharper-than-expected disinflation reading or clear labor market deterioration ahead of the July decision.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाकोई बदलाव नहीं 93%
25 बीपीएस वृद्धि 6.5%
25 बीपीएस की कमी 1.4%
50+ बीपीएस की कटौती <1%
$8,624,824 वॉल्यूम
$8,624,824 वॉल्यूम
29 जुल, 2026
50+ बीपीएस की कटौती
1%
25 बीपीएस की कमी
1%
कोई बदलाव नहीं
93%
25 बीपीएस वृद्धि
6%
50+ बेसिस प्वाइंट वृद्धि
<1%
कोई बदलाव नहीं 93%
25 बीपीएस वृद्धि 6.5%
25 बीपीएस की कमी 1.4%
50+ बीपीएस की कटौती <1%
$8,624,824 वॉल्यूम
$8,624,824 वॉल्यूम
29 जुल, 2026
50+ बीपीएस की कटौती
$1,118,617 वॉल्यूम
1%
25 बीपीएस की कमी
$898,947 वॉल्यूम
1%
कोई बदलाव नहीं
$1,239,841 वॉल्यूम
93%
25 बीपीएस वृद्धि
$3,923,767 वॉल्यूम
6%
50+ बेसिस प्वाइंट वृद्धि
$1,443,676 वॉल्यूम
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation pressures, with April 2026 CPI rising to 3.8% year-over-year amid energy price shocks, combined with the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, underpin the 92.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. Recent communications and futures pricing reflect trader consensus that the central bank will maintain its cautious stance given anchored long-term expectations and limited evidence of cooling price pressures. A 25 basis point hike carries just 6.5% odds, reflecting residual risks from geopolitical tensions. Scenarios that could realistically challenge the no-change outlook include a sharper-than-expected disinflation reading or clear labor market deterioration ahead of the July decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$8,624,824समाप्ति तिथि
29 जुल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation pressures, with April 2026 CPI rising to 3.8% year-over-year amid energy price shocks, combined with the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, underpin the 92.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. Recent communications and futures pricing reflect trader consensus that the central bank will maintain its cautious stance given anchored long-term expectations and limited evidence of cooling price pressures. A 25 basis point hike carries just 6.5% odds, reflecting residual risks from geopolitical tensions. Scenarios that could realistically challenge the no-change outlook include a sharper-than-expected disinflation reading or clear labor market deterioration ahead of the July decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
वॉल्यूम
$8,624,824समाप्ति तिथि
29 जुल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation pressures, with April 2026 CPI rising to 3.8% year-over-year amid energy price shocks, combined with the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, underpin the 92.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. Recent communications and futures pricing reflect trader consensus that the central bank will maintain its cautious stance given anchored long-term expectations and limited evidence of cooling price pressures. A 25 basis point hike carries just 6.5% odds, reflecting residual risks from geopolitical tensions. Scenarios that could realistically challenge the no-change outlook include a sharper-than-expected disinflation reading or clear labor market deterioration ahead of the July decision.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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