Rising Middle East tensions and associated energy price shocks have elevated inflation risks, with April 2026 CPI reflecting a notable year-over-year increase driven largely by gasoline costs, shifting Fed communications toward greater vigilance. The FOMC maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% following its April meeting, and minutes released May 20 underscored upside inflation concerns while market-implied paths now price a modestly higher policy rate trajectory through year-end. Traders on platforms such as Polymarket currently assign roughly a one-in-three probability to a 2026 hike, reflecting resilient labor data alongside anchored longer-term expectations. The June 10 CPI release and June 16-17 FOMC meeting represent the immediate catalysts that could reinforce or ease this hawkish tilt in aggregated trader sentiment.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया$154,138 वॉल्यूम
9 दिस, 2026
जून बैठक
1%
जुलाई बैठक
6%
सितंबर बैठक
12%
अक्टूबर बैठक
23%
$154,138 वॉल्यूम
जून बैठक
$15,781 वॉल्यूम
1%
जुलाई बैठक
$1,768 वॉल्यूम
6%
सितंबर बैठक
$2,737 वॉल्यूम
12%
अक्टूबर बैठक
$2,545 वॉल्यूम
23%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Rising Middle East tensions and associated energy price shocks have elevated inflation risks, with April 2026 CPI reflecting a notable year-over-year increase driven largely by gasoline costs, shifting Fed communications toward greater vigilance. The FOMC maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% following its April meeting, and minutes released May 20 underscored upside inflation concerns while market-implied paths now price a modestly higher policy rate trajectory through year-end. Traders on platforms such as Polymarket currently assign roughly a one-in-three probability to a 2026 hike, reflecting resilient labor data alongside anchored longer-term expectations. The June 10 CPI release and June 16-17 FOMC meeting represent the immediate catalysts that could reinforce or ease this hawkish tilt in aggregated trader sentiment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$154,138समाप्ति तिथि
29 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Rising Middle East tensions and associated energy price shocks have elevated inflation risks, with April 2026 CPI reflecting a notable year-over-year increase driven largely by gasoline costs, shifting Fed communications toward greater vigilance. The FOMC maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% following its April meeting, and minutes released May 20 underscored upside inflation concerns while market-implied paths now price a modestly higher policy rate trajectory through year-end. Traders on platforms such as Polymarket currently assign roughly a one-in-three probability to a 2026 hike, reflecting resilient labor data alongside anchored longer-term expectations. The June 10 CPI release and June 16-17 FOMC meeting represent the immediate catalysts that could reinforce or ease this hawkish tilt in aggregated trader sentiment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$154,138समाप्ति तिथि
29 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Rising Middle East tensions and associated energy price shocks have elevated inflation risks, with April 2026 CPI reflecting a notable year-over-year increase driven largely by gasoline costs, shifting Fed communications toward greater vigilance. The FOMC maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% following its April meeting, and minutes released May 20 underscored upside inflation concerns while market-implied paths now price a modestly higher policy rate trajectory through year-end. Traders on platforms such as Polymarket currently assign roughly a one-in-three probability to a 2026 hike, reflecting resilient labor data alongside anchored longer-term expectations. The June 10 CPI release and June 16-17 FOMC meeting represent the immediate catalysts that could reinforce or ease this hawkish tilt in aggregated trader sentiment.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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