Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors consecutive pauses in FOMC decisions through June at 91% implied probability, driven by March 2026 CPI surging 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4% amid energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions—and stronger-than-expected March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs with unemployment dipping to 4.3%. The March FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75%, aligning with the dot plot's median projection for one 25 basis point cut later in 2026. This hawkish repricing reflects diminished rate-cut urgency amid sticky inflation and resilient labor markets. Scenarios challenging this include softer April CPI or PCE data ahead of the late-April FOMC, potentially reviving easing odds.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाविराम–विराम–विराम 91%
रोक–रोक–कटौती 7%
अन्य 1.4%
रोक–कटौती–रोक 1.1%
$907,783 वॉल्यूम
$907,783 वॉल्यूम
17 जून, 2026
विराम–विराम–विराम
91%
रोक–रोक–कटौती
7%
अन्य
1%
रोक–कटौती–रोक
1%
विराम–कटौती–कटौती
1%
विराम–विराम–विराम 91%
रोक–रोक–कटौती 7%
अन्य 1.4%
रोक–कटौती–रोक 1.1%
$907,783 वॉल्यूम
$907,783 वॉल्यूम
17 जून, 2026
विराम–विराम–विराम
$32,968 वॉल्यूम
91%
रोक–रोक–कटौती
$15,303 वॉल्यूम
7%
अन्य
$216,634 वॉल्यूम
1%
रोक–कटौती–रोक
$132,599 वॉल्यूम
1%
विराम–कटौती–कटौती
$510,280 वॉल्यूम
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors consecutive pauses in FOMC decisions through June at 91% implied probability, driven by March 2026 CPI surging 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4% amid energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions—and stronger-than-expected March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs with unemployment dipping to 4.3%. The March FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75%, aligning with the dot plot's median projection for one 25 basis point cut later in 2026. This hawkish repricing reflects diminished rate-cut urgency amid sticky inflation and resilient labor markets. Scenarios challenging this include softer April CPI or PCE data ahead of the late-April FOMC, potentially reviving easing odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$907,783समाप्ति तिथि
17 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors consecutive pauses in FOMC decisions through June at 91% implied probability, driven by March 2026 CPI surging 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4% amid energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions—and stronger-than-expected March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs with unemployment dipping to 4.3%. The March FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75%, aligning with the dot plot's median projection for one 25 basis point cut later in 2026. This hawkish repricing reflects diminished rate-cut urgency amid sticky inflation and resilient labor markets. Scenarios challenging this include softer April CPI or PCE data ahead of the late-April FOMC, potentially reviving easing odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
वॉल्यूम
$907,783समाप्ति तिथि
17 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors consecutive pauses in FOMC decisions through June at 91% implied probability, driven by March 2026 CPI surging 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4% amid energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions—and stronger-than-expected March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs with unemployment dipping to 4.3%. The March FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75%, aligning with the dot plot's median projection for one 25 basis point cut later in 2026. This hawkish repricing reflects diminished rate-cut urgency amid sticky inflation and resilient labor markets. Scenarios challenging this include softer April CPI or PCE data ahead of the late-April FOMC, potentially reviving easing odds.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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