Persistent inflation pressures and elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions have anchored market-implied odds toward no Federal Reserve rate cuts through the end of 2026. The April 2026 FOMC maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75%, citing somewhat elevated price levels partly driven by global energy costs while noting a resilient labor market with stable unemployment. Recent April CPI data reinforced this stance, shifting CME FedWatch probabilities and prompting major brokerages such as BofA to delay first-cut forecasts into 2027. Traders are now assigning roughly 70% odds to zero easing this year. Key upcoming catalysts include the May and June inflation releases plus the June FOMC meeting, which could either sustain the current hold or reopen a modest rate-cut path if price pressures moderate.