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Géopolitique·Présidence Trump

Les États-Unis vont-ils envahir le Venezuela par... ?

Market icon
Géopolitique·Présidence Trump

Les États-Unis vont-ils envahir le Venezuela par... ?

$14,115,594 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$14,115,594 Vol.

Polymarket

31 mars

$2,814,751 Vol.

<1%

31 décembre

$167,961 Vol.

13%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between September 6 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025, and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.In early January 2026, the United States executed a targeted military raid in Venezuela, capturing President Nicolás Maduro amid longstanding sanctions and disputed 2024 elections, but stopped short of a full-scale ground invasion or occupation. Bipartisan congressional resolutions, including war powers challenges, have sought to curb further escalation, reflecting unease over executive unilateralism. On March 18, the Treasury eased oil sanctions on Venezuela's state company to bolster global supply amid tensions elsewhere, while Caracas replaced its defense minister under U.S. pressure. Ongoing Maduro hearings and threats to indict interim leader Delcy Rodríguez sustain diplomatic leverage without military intensification, anchoring trader consensus against near-term invasion amid no fresh troop deployments or airstrikes.

In early January 2026, the United States executed a targeted military raid in Venezuela, capturing President Nicolás Maduro amid longstanding sanctions and disputed 2024 elections, but stopped short of a full-scale ground invasion or occupation. Bipartisan congressional resolutions, including war powers challenges, have sought to curb further escalation, reflecting unease over executive unilateralism. On March 18, the Treasury eased oil sanctions on Venezuela's state company to bolster global supply amid tensions elsewhere, while Caracas replaced its defense minister under U.S. pressure. Ongoing Maduro hearings and threats to indict interim leader Delcy Rodríguez sustain diplomatic leverage without military intensification, anchoring trader consensus against near-term invasion amid no fresh troop deployments or airstrikes.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between September 6 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025, and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.In early January 2026, the United States executed a targeted military raid in Venezuela, capturing President Nicolás Maduro amid longstanding sanctions and disputed 2024 elections, but stopped short of a full-scale ground invasion or occupation. Bipartisan congressional resolutions, including war powers challenges, have sought to curb further escalation, reflecting unease over executive unilateralism. On March 18, the Treasury eased oil sanctions on Venezuela's state company to bolster global supply amid tensions elsewhere, while Caracas replaced its defense minister under U.S. pressure. Ongoing Maduro hearings and threats to indict interim leader Delcy Rodríguez sustain diplomatic leverage without military intensification, anchoring trader consensus against near-term invasion amid no fresh troop deployments or airstrikes.

In early January 2026, the United States executed a targeted military raid in Venezuela, capturing President Nicolás Maduro amid longstanding sanctions and disputed 2024 elections, but stopped short of a full-scale ground invasion or occupation. Bipartisan congressional resolutions, including war powers challenges, have sought to curb further escalation, reflecting unease over executive unilateralism. On March 18, the Treasury eased oil sanctions on Venezuela's state company to bolster global supply amid tensions elsewhere, while Caracas replaced its defense minister under U.S. pressure. Ongoing Maduro hearings and threats to indict interim leader Delcy Rodríguez sustain diplomatic leverage without military intensification, anchoring trader consensus against near-term invasion amid no fresh troop deployments or airstrikes.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

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Questions fréquentes

« Les États-Unis vont-ils envahir le Venezuela par... ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 4 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 31 décembre » à 13%, suivi de « 31 mars » à 0%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 13¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 13% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Les États-Unis vont-ils envahir le Venezuela par... ? » a généré $14.1 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Sep 6, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Les États-Unis vont-ils envahir le Venezuela par... ? », parcourez les 4 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Les États-Unis vont-ils envahir le Venezuela par... ? » est « 31 décembre » à 13%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 13% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 31 mars » à 0%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Les États-Unis vont-ils envahir le Venezuela par... ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.