The National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook confirms no active tropical cyclones and negligible development chances over the next 7 days as of early April 2026, underpinning trader consensus at 90.8% implied probability for no hurricane by May 31. Sea surface temperatures across the main development region hover below the 26.5°C threshold needed for sustained hurricane intensification on the Saffir-Simpson scale, compounded by persistent upper-level wind shear inhibiting organization. Historical records since 1851 show just four pre-June 1 Atlantic hurricanes, reinforcing this low-risk positioning amid near-average seasonal forecasts influenced by emerging El Niño patterns. Watch for weekly NHC updates on any nascent tropical waves; rapid SST warming or shear collapse could prompt a reassessment, though such shifts remain unlikely before late May.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourUn ouragan se formera-t-il d'ici le 31 mai ?
Un ouragan se formera-t-il d'ici le 31 mai ?
Oui
$36,151 Vol.
$36,151 Vol.
31 mai 2026
Oui
$36,151 Vol.
$36,151 Vol.
31 mai 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.The National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook confirms no active tropical cyclones and negligible development chances over the next 7 days as of early April 2026, underpinning trader consensus at 90.8% implied probability for no hurricane by May 31. Sea surface temperatures across the main development region hover below the 26.5°C threshold needed for sustained hurricane intensification on the Saffir-Simpson scale, compounded by persistent upper-level wind shear inhibiting organization. Historical records since 1851 show just four pre-June 1 Atlantic hurricanes, reinforcing this low-risk positioning amid near-average seasonal forecasts influenced by emerging El Niño patterns. Watch for weekly NHC updates on any nascent tropical waves; rapid SST warming or shear collapse could prompt a reassessment, though such shifts remain unlikely before late May.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Marché ouvert : Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
Volume
$36,151Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.The National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook confirms no active tropical cyclones and negligible development chances over the next 7 days as of early April 2026, underpinning trader consensus at 90.8% implied probability for no hurricane by May 31. Sea surface temperatures across the main development region hover below the 26.5°C threshold needed for sustained hurricane intensification on the Saffir-Simpson scale, compounded by persistent upper-level wind shear inhibiting organization. Historical records since 1851 show just four pre-June 1 Atlantic hurricanes, reinforcing this low-risk positioning amid near-average seasonal forecasts influenced by emerging El Niño patterns. Watch for weekly NHC updates on any nascent tropical waves; rapid SST warming or shear collapse could prompt a reassessment, though such shifts remain unlikely before late May.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Volume
$36,151Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook confirms no active tropical cyclones and negligible development chances over the next 7 days as of early April 2026, underpinning trader consensus at 90.8% implied probability for no hurricane by May 31. Sea surface temperatures across the main development region hover below the 26.5°C threshold needed for sustained hurricane intensification on the Saffir-Simpson scale, compounded by persistent upper-level wind shear inhibiting organization. Historical records since 1851 show just four pre-June 1 Atlantic hurricanes, reinforcing this low-risk positioning amid near-average seasonal forecasts influenced by emerging El Niño patterns. Watch for weekly NHC updates on any nascent tropical waves; rapid SST warming or shear collapse could prompt a reassessment, though such shifts remain unlikely before late May.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes