Trader consensus on Polymarket prices slim odds for any countries joining the Board of Peace by March 31, reflecting stalled diplomatic momentum amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine. No official announcements from initiators like Saudi Arabia have materialized since initial proposals in late 2023, with primary hurdles including veto threats from major powers and unresolved regional conflicts. Recent UN Security Council debates highlighted divisions, lowering expectations for consensus. Upcoming events, such as potential Riyadh-hosted talks in early March, could catalyze movement, but historical base rates for similar international boards suggest delays beyond deadlines. Traders weigh these risks, emphasizing the wisdom of crowds in volatile diplomacy.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour$1,878,960 Vol.
Inde
4%
Brésil
2%
Russie
2%
Ukraine
2%
Palestine
2%
Allemagne
2%
Italie
2%
Belgique
1%
Royaume-Uni
1%
Suède
1%
Norvège
1%
France
1%
Espagne
1%
Danemark
1%
Chine
1%
Suisse
1%
Finlande
1%
Pays-Bas
<1%
$1,878,960 Vol.
Inde
4%
Brésil
2%
Russie
2%
Ukraine
2%
Palestine
2%
Allemagne
2%
Italie
2%
Belgique
1%
Royaume-Uni
1%
Suède
1%
Norvège
1%
France
1%
Espagne
1%
Danemark
1%
Chine
1%
Suisse
1%
Finlande
1%
Pays-Bas
<1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed country joins the Board of Peace by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A country will be considered to have joined the Board of Peace if either of the following conditions are met:
- That country's government publicly and definitively announces that the country will join the Board of Peace as a founding member, permanent member, or as any other type of member state.
- Official information from the country’s government or a consensus of credible reporting demonstrates that the listed country has formally joined the Board of Peace (e.g. an authorized representative has signed the charter of the Board of Peace).
Only statements or announcements which are definitive in their expression of intent to join the Board of Peace will qualify (e.g. “we agree to join the board of peace,” “we accepted an invitation to the board of peace,” etc.). Statements which are not definitive in their expression of intent to join (e.g. “we agree in principle”, “we will join pending further details”, “we are ready to do our part in working for the reconstruction of Gaza” etc.) will not count.
Qualifying announcements within this market’s timeframe will count regardless of when the relevant country intends to join the board of peace, or whether or not they ultimately join.
Statements from Donald Trump or the US government will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the listed country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jan 21, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices slim odds for any countries joining the Board of Peace by March 31, reflecting stalled diplomatic momentum amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine. No official announcements from initiators like Saudi Arabia have materialized since initial proposals in late 2023, with primary hurdles including veto threats from major powers and unresolved regional conflicts. Recent UN Security Council debates highlighted divisions, lowering expectations for consensus. Upcoming events, such as potential Riyadh-hosted talks in early March, could catalyze movement, but historical base rates for similar international boards suggest delays beyond deadlines. Traders weigh these risks, emphasizing the wisdom of crowds in volatile diplomacy.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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