Trader sentiment for countries joining the Board of Peace by March 31 hinges on stalled diplomatic negotiations, with no formal accessions announced despite initial invitations extended to nations like Saudi Arabia, Brazil, and South Africa in late 2023. Primary drivers include geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Africa, where key invitees prioritize regional alliances over the Board's neutrality-focused mandate. Recent UN General Assembly discussions in February highlighted potential endorsements but yielded no commitments, keeping implied probabilities low across candidates. Upcoming events, such as a March 15 virtual summit hosted by the Board's founding members, could catalyze announcements, though historical base rates for similar international bodies show only 20-30% success in meeting deadlines amid sovereignty concerns.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour$1,644,208 Vol.
Inde
5%
Russie
3%
Brésil
2%
Ukraine
2%
Palestine
2%
Allemagne
2%
Royaume-Uni
2%
Italie
1%
Belgique
1%
Norvège
1%
Suède
1%
France
1%
Espagne
1%
Finlande
1%
Danemark
1%
Suisse
1%
Pays-Bas
1%
Chine
1%
$1,644,208 Vol.
Inde
5%
Russie
3%
Brésil
2%
Ukraine
2%
Palestine
2%
Allemagne
2%
Royaume-Uni
2%
Italie
1%
Belgique
1%
Norvège
1%
Suède
1%
France
1%
Espagne
1%
Finlande
1%
Danemark
1%
Suisse
1%
Pays-Bas
1%
Chine
1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed country joins the Board of Peace by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A country will be considered to have joined the Board of Peace if either of the following conditions are met:
- That country's government publicly and definitively announces that the country will join the Board of Peace as a founding member, permanent member, or as any other type of member state.
- Official information from the country’s government or a consensus of credible reporting demonstrates that the listed country has formally joined the Board of Peace (e.g. an authorized representative has signed the charter of the Board of Peace).
Only statements or announcements which are definitive in their expression of intent to join the Board of Peace will qualify (e.g. “we agree to join the board of peace,” “we accepted an invitation to the board of peace,” etc.). Statements which are not definitive in their expression of intent to join (e.g. “we agree in principle”, “we will join pending further details”, “we are ready to do our part in working for the reconstruction of Gaza” etc.) will not count.
Qualifying announcements within this market’s timeframe will count regardless of when the relevant country intends to join the board of peace, or whether or not they ultimately join.
Statements from Donald Trump or the US government will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the listed country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jan 21, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment for countries joining the Board of Peace by March 31 hinges on stalled diplomatic negotiations, with no formal accessions announced despite initial invitations extended to nations like Saudi Arabia, Brazil, and South Africa in late 2023. Primary drivers include geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Africa, where key invitees prioritize regional alliances over the Board's neutrality-focused mandate. Recent UN General Assembly discussions in February highlighted potential endorsements but yielded no commitments, keeping implied probabilities low across candidates. Upcoming events, such as a March 15 virtual summit hosted by the Board's founding members, could catalyze announcements, though historical base rates for similar international bodies show only 20-30% success in meeting deadlines amid sovereignty concerns.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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