Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 55.5% implied probability to Anthropic securing the second-best AI model by June 30, driven by recent lmarena.ai Chatbot Arena text leaderboard updates (as of early April 2026) where Claude Opus 4.6 variants hold the top two spots at 1504 and 1499 ELO, excelling in reasoning, coding, and document tasks. This positions Anthropic as the frontrunner for #2 behind an expected OpenAI GPT-5.x upgrade or preview overtaking #1, while Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (1494 ELO, strong in multimodal and context) trails at 27%, bolstered by Gemma 4 open releases last week. DeepSeek's V3 open-source math prowess (8.6%) and xAI's Grok 4.20 betas add uncertainty, with no major shifts in the past 30 days but June model drops looming as key catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourAnthropic 55%
Google 27%
DeepSeek 9.3%
OpenAI 5%
$336,330 Vol.
$336,330 Vol.

Anthropic
55%

27%

DeepSeek
9%

OpenAI
5%

xAI
5%

Z.ai
1%

Alibaba
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Moonshot
<1%
Anthropic 55%
Google 27%
DeepSeek 9.3%
OpenAI 5%
$336,330 Vol.
$336,330 Vol.

Anthropic
55%

27%

DeepSeek
9%

OpenAI
5%

xAI
5%

Z.ai
1%

Alibaba
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Moonshot
<1%
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 55.5% implied probability to Anthropic securing the second-best AI model by June 30, driven by recent lmarena.ai Chatbot Arena text leaderboard updates (as of early April 2026) where Claude Opus 4.6 variants hold the top two spots at 1504 and 1499 ELO, excelling in reasoning, coding, and document tasks. This positions Anthropic as the frontrunner for #2 behind an expected OpenAI GPT-5.x upgrade or preview overtaking #1, while Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (1494 ELO, strong in multimodal and context) trails at 27%, bolstered by Gemma 4 open releases last week. DeepSeek's V3 open-source math prowess (8.6%) and xAI's Grok 4.20 betas add uncertainty, with no major shifts in the past 30 days but June model drops looming as key catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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