The U.S. embassy in Jerusalem continues normal operations without any State Department evacuation orders or drawdowns, driving trader consensus to 98.7% on "No" by March 31 amid stable diplomatic postures. Recent Middle East developments, including Gaza ceasefire talks and limited Hezbollah exchanges along Israel's northern border, have not escalated to threaten U.S. diplomatic facilities directly, with travel advisories remaining at Level 3 (reconsider travel) rather than Level 4 (do not travel with evacuation). Historical precedents show embassy evacuations occur only under imminent threats like direct attacks or civil unrest, absent here. Realistic shifts could stem from a major Iranian proxy strike on Jerusalem or sudden U.S.-Israel security crisis prompting relocation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOui
$45,795 Vol.
$45,795 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Oui
$45,795 Vol.
$45,795 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem, Israel, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem, Israel, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem, Israel, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Marché ouvert : Feb 20, 2026, 4:32 PM ET
Volume
$45,795Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 20, 2026, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem, Israel, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem, Israel, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem, Israel, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Volume
$45,795Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 20, 2026, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. embassy in Jerusalem continues normal operations without any State Department evacuation orders or drawdowns, driving trader consensus to 98.7% on "No" by March 31 amid stable diplomatic postures. Recent Middle East developments, including Gaza ceasefire talks and limited Hezbollah exchanges along Israel's northern border, have not escalated to threaten U.S. diplomatic facilities directly, with travel advisories remaining at Level 3 (reconsider travel) rather than Level 4 (do not travel with evacuation). Historical precedents show embassy evacuations occur only under imminent threats like direct attacks or civil unrest, absent here. Realistic shifts could stem from a major Iranian proxy strike on Jerusalem or sudden U.S.-Israel security crisis prompting relocation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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