Illumination and Nintendo's The Super Mario Galaxy Movie blasted off with a record-shattering $34.5 million domestic opening day on Wednesday, fueling trader consensus around the 180-190 million 3-day weekend range at 39.1% implied probability, as family audiences flock to theaters despite mixed critical reception and a middling Rotten Tomatoes score for the sequel. Pre-release tracking from Variety and Deadline had forecasted 170-200 million over the Easter holiday frame, bolstered by the 2023 original's billion-dollar global haul and robust presales, though competition from Project Hail Mary tempers >200 million odds at 10.5%. Momentum hinges on Thursday-Sunday walkups and holiday boosts, with historical animation precedents suggesting potential for upward surprises if word-of-mouth ignites.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office
"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office
180-190m 39.2%
170-180m 23.0%
190-200m 21.6%
>200m 11%
$614,434 Vol.
$614,434 Vol.
6 avr. 2026
<160m
<1%
160-170m
5%
170-180m
23%
180-190m
39%
190-200m
22%
>200m
11%
180-190m 39.2%
170-180m 23.0%
190-200m 21.6%
>200m 11%
$614,434 Vol.
$614,434 Vol.
6 avr. 2026
<160m
$96,944 Vol.
<1%
160-170m
$44,988 Vol.
5%
170-180m
$57,495 Vol.
23%
180-190m
$53,560 Vol.
39%
190-200m
$46,733 Vol.
22%
>200m
$314,881 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Illumination and Nintendo's The Super Mario Galaxy Movie blasted off with a record-shattering $34.5 million domestic opening day on Wednesday, fueling trader consensus around the 180-190 million 3-day weekend range at 39.1% implied probability, as family audiences flock to theaters despite mixed critical reception and a middling Rotten Tomatoes score for the sequel. Pre-release tracking from Variety and Deadline had forecasted 170-200 million over the Easter holiday frame, bolstered by the 2023 original's billion-dollar global haul and robust presales, though competition from Project Hail Mary tempers >200 million odds at 10.5%. Momentum hinges on Thursday-Sunday walkups and holiday boosts, with historical animation precedents suggesting potential for upward surprises if word-of-mouth ignites.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Marché ouvert : Mar 16, 2026, 5:09 PM ET
Volume
$614,434Date de fin
6 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 16, 2026, 5:09 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Illumination and Nintendo's The Super Mario Galaxy Movie blasted off with a record-shattering $34.5 million domestic opening day on Wednesday, fueling trader consensus around the 180-190 million 3-day weekend range at 39.1% implied probability, as family audiences flock to theaters despite mixed critical reception and a middling Rotten Tomatoes score for the sequel. Pre-release tracking from Variety and Deadline had forecasted 170-200 million over the Easter holiday frame, bolstered by the 2023 original's billion-dollar global haul and robust presales, though competition from Project Hail Mary tempers >200 million odds at 10.5%. Momentum hinges on Thursday-Sunday walkups and holiday boosts, with historical animation precedents suggesting potential for upward surprises if word-of-mouth ignites.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$614,434Date de fin
6 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 16, 2026, 5:09 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Illumination and Nintendo's The Super Mario Galaxy Movie blasted off with a record-shattering $34.5 million domestic opening day on Wednesday, fueling trader consensus around the 180-190 million 3-day weekend range at 39.1% implied probability, as family audiences flock to theaters despite mixed critical reception and a middling Rotten Tomatoes score for the sequel. Pre-release tracking from Variety and Deadline had forecasted 170-200 million over the Easter holiday frame, bolstered by the 2023 original's billion-dollar global haul and robust presales, though competition from Project Hail Mary tempers >200 million odds at 10.5%. Momentum hinges on Thursday-Sunday walkups and holiday boosts, with historical animation precedents suggesting potential for upward surprises if word-of-mouth ignites.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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