Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 93.5% implied probability for negative Q1 S&P 500 returns, reflecting heightened recession fears amid sticky inflation and fewer anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts. December's FOMC dot plot signaled only two 25-basis-point reductions in 2025, versus prior expectations of more, driving 10-year Treasury yields above 4.6% and compressing equity valuations at stretched 22x forward earnings multiples. Robust nonfarm payrolls and rising consumer prices have eroded risk appetite, prompting profit-taking in mega-cap tech after 2024's rally. Seasonal Q1 weakness post-year-end further bolsters bearish positioning. Upside risks include blowout earnings seasons or softer inflation data enabling policy pivot, though traders see limited catalysts before March's resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour<0 % 94%
0-2 % 3.1%
2-3 % 1.6%
3-4 % <1%
$275,084 Vol.
$275,084 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<0 %
94%
0-2 %
3%
2-3 %
2%
3-4 %
1%
4-5 %
1%
5-6 %
<1%
6-8 %
1%
8-10 %
<1%
10 % +
<1%
<0 % 94%
0-2 % 3.1%
2-3 % 1.6%
3-4 % <1%
$275,084 Vol.
$275,084 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<0 %
$36,014 Vol.
94%
0-2 %
$11,507 Vol.
3%
2-3 %
$15,902 Vol.
2%
3-4 %
$18,234 Vol.
1%
4-5 %
$51,531 Vol.
1%
5-6 %
$44,315 Vol.
<1%
6-8 %
$56,356 Vol.
1%
8-10 %
$18,962 Vol.
<1%
10 % +
$22,264 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).
Marché ouvert : Jan 14, 2026, 5:52 PM ET
Volume
$275,084Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 14, 2026, 5:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).
Volume
$275,084Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 14, 2026, 5:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 93.5% implied probability for negative Q1 S&P 500 returns, reflecting heightened recession fears amid sticky inflation and fewer anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts. December's FOMC dot plot signaled only two 25-basis-point reductions in 2025, versus prior expectations of more, driving 10-year Treasury yields above 4.6% and compressing equity valuations at stretched 22x forward earnings multiples. Robust nonfarm payrolls and rising consumer prices have eroded risk appetite, prompting profit-taking in mega-cap tech after 2024's rally. Seasonal Q1 weakness post-year-end further bolsters bearish positioning. Upside risks include blowout earnings seasons or softer inflation data enabling policy pivot, though traders see limited catalysts before March's resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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