Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 35.6% implied probability for zero Fed rate cuts (0 basis points) in 2026, reflecting resilient labor market data and sticky inflation pressures from an oil price shock tied to Middle East tensions. The March nonfarm payrolls report, released April 3, showed a stronger-than-expected 178,000 job gain—exceeding forecasts of around 60,000—with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, signaling no urgent need for easing from the current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range. The FOMC's March 18 dot plot projected just one 25 basis point cut by year-end (to 3.4%), but markets have turned more hawkish amid higher inflation forecasts at 2.7%. Upcoming April 28-29 FOMC and March CPI release could shift sentiment further.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourCombien de baisses de taux de la Fed en 2026 ?
Combien de baisses de taux de la Fed en 2026 ?
0 (0 bps) 35.7%
1 (25 bps) 23%
2 (50 pb) 17%
3 (75 points de base) 9%
$16,267,527 Vol.
$16,267,527 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
0 (0 bps)
36%
1 (25 bps)
23%
2 (50 pb)
17%
3 (75 points de base)
9%
4 (100 pb)
5%
5 (125 pb)
2%
6 (150 points de base)
1%
7 (175 points de base)
1%
8 (200 points de base)
1%
9 (225 points de base)
1%
10 (250 pb)
1%
11 (275 points de base)
1%
12+ (300+ bps)
1%
0 (0 bps) 35.7%
1 (25 bps) 23%
2 (50 pb) 17%
3 (75 points de base) 9%
$16,267,527 Vol.
$16,267,527 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
0 (0 bps)
$2,760,255 Vol.
36%
1 (25 bps)
$910,177 Vol.
23%
2 (50 pb)
$840,425 Vol.
17%
3 (75 points de base)
$806,594 Vol.
9%
4 (100 pb)
$816,845 Vol.
5%
5 (125 pb)
$910,916 Vol.
2%
6 (150 points de base)
$1,931,675 Vol.
1%
7 (175 points de base)
$820,769 Vol.
1%
8 (200 points de base)
$1,063,225 Vol.
1%
9 (225 points de base)
$981,573 Vol.
1%
10 (250 pb)
$1,414,613 Vol.
1%
11 (275 points de base)
$1,356,093 Vol.
1%
12+ (300+ bps)
$1,654,762 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 35.6% implied probability for zero Fed rate cuts (0 basis points) in 2026, reflecting resilient labor market data and sticky inflation pressures from an oil price shock tied to Middle East tensions. The March nonfarm payrolls report, released April 3, showed a stronger-than-expected 178,000 job gain—exceeding forecasts of around 60,000—with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, signaling no urgent need for easing from the current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range. The FOMC's March 18 dot plot projected just one 25 basis point cut by year-end (to 3.4%), but markets have turned more hawkish amid higher inflation forecasts at 2.7%. Upcoming April 28-29 FOMC and March CPI release could shift sentiment further.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Marché ouvert : Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
Volume
$16,267,527Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 35.6% implied probability for zero Fed rate cuts (0 basis points) in 2026, reflecting resilient labor market data and sticky inflation pressures from an oil price shock tied to Middle East tensions. The March nonfarm payrolls report, released April 3, showed a stronger-than-expected 178,000 job gain—exceeding forecasts of around 60,000—with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, signaling no urgent need for easing from the current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range. The FOMC's March 18 dot plot projected just one 25 basis point cut by year-end (to 3.4%), but markets have turned more hawkish amid higher inflation forecasts at 2.7%. Upcoming April 28-29 FOMC and March CPI release could shift sentiment further.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$16,267,527Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 35.6% implied probability for zero Fed rate cuts (0 basis points) in 2026, reflecting resilient labor market data and sticky inflation pressures from an oil price shock tied to Middle East tensions. The March nonfarm payrolls report, released April 3, showed a stronger-than-expected 178,000 job gain—exceeding forecasts of around 60,000—with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, signaling no urgent need for easing from the current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range. The FOMC's March 18 dot plot projected just one 25 basis point cut by year-end (to 3.4%), but markets have turned more hawkish amid higher inflation forecasts at 2.7%. Upcoming April 28-29 FOMC and March CPI release could shift sentiment further.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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