Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a highest temperature of 21°C in Wellington on April 4 at nearly 100% implied probability, anchored by MetService's most recent forecast models projecting this peak amid easing northerlies and cloudy periods that limit extremes. Current observations at Wellington International Airport (NZWN)—the market's resolution station via Wunderground—align closely, with temperatures reaching near 19°C midday and potential for a late-afternoon nudge to 21°C under residual warm advection. Historical April averages hover around 17°C, but today's ridge pattern supports above-normal warmth. Realistic challenges include sudden cloud thickening or southerly shifts cooling the airport site by 1–2°C before sunset, though model ensembles show low divergence. Final daily max posts this evening.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Wellington on April 4?
Highest temperature in Wellington on April 4?
21°C 99.6%
19°C <1%
22°C or higher <1%
$149,916 Vol.
$149,916 Vol.
19°C
<1%
21°C
100%
22°C or higher
<1%
21°C 99.6%
19°C <1%
22°C or higher <1%
$149,916 Vol.
$149,916 Vol.
19°C
<1%
21°C
100%
22°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 29, 2026, 3:05 PM ET
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a highest temperature of 21°C in Wellington on April 4 at nearly 100% implied probability, anchored by MetService's most recent forecast models projecting this peak amid easing northerlies and cloudy periods that limit extremes. Current observations at Wellington International Airport (NZWN)—the market's resolution station via Wunderground—align closely, with temperatures reaching near 19°C midday and potential for a late-afternoon nudge to 21°C under residual warm advection. Historical April averages hover around 17°C, but today's ridge pattern supports above-normal warmth. Realistic challenges include sudden cloud thickening or southerly shifts cooling the airport site by 1–2°C before sunset, though model ensembles show low divergence. Final daily max posts this evening.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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