Latest ensemble forecasts from NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) converge on a high temperature cluster of 74-75°F in Miami on March 17, driving its 37.5% implied probability as trader consensus. This reflects a weak cold front ushering cooler mid-level air and increased cloud cover, tempering typical March highs near 79°F amid lingering El Niño influences. Recent 00Z model runs and National Weather Service point forecasts align closely, with 72-73°F (21%) viable if marine stratus persists and 76-77°F (19.5%) possible under partial clearing. Surface observations from Miami International Airport show recent diurnal highs in the low 80s cooling progressively, heightening model agreement but with 2-3°F uncertainty typical for 5-day outlooks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Miami on March 17?
Highest temperature in Miami on March 17?
70-71°F 95.2%
72-73°F 3.0%
74-75°F <1%
76-77°F <1%
$243,966 Vol.
$243,966 Vol.
70-71°F
95%
72-73°F
3%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82°F or higher
<1%
70-71°F 95.2%
72-73°F 3.0%
74-75°F <1%
76-77°F <1%
$243,966 Vol.
$243,966 Vol.
70-71°F
95%
72-73°F
3%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82°F or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 13, 2026, 3:27 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) converge on a high temperature cluster of 74-75°F in Miami on March 17, driving its 37.5% implied probability as trader consensus. This reflects a weak cold front ushering cooler mid-level air and increased cloud cover, tempering typical March highs near 79°F amid lingering El Niño influences. Recent 00Z model runs and National Weather Service point forecasts align closely, with 72-73°F (21%) viable if marine stratus persists and 76-77°F (19.5%) possible under partial clearing. Surface observations from Miami International Airport show recent diurnal highs in the low 80s cooling progressively, heightening model agreement but with 2-3°F uncertainty typical for 5-day outlooks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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