Hong Kong Observatory's official measurement of a maximum air temperature of 27.1°C at its headquarters station on April 3 has driven near-certain trader consensus at 99.9% market-implied probability for the 27°C outcome, reflecting provisional data released in the daily summary. This fits early April norms in Hong Kong's subtropical climate, where average highs range 24-27°C, amplified by the Observatory's seasonal forecast of normal to above-normal temperatures amid a dry easterly airstream, zero rainfall, and humidity of 77-91% that supported steady daytime heating despite limited sunshine (1.0 hour at King's Park). While outlying stations like Tai Po hit 29.6°C, resolution hinges on the primary Observatory reading; rare post-audit revisions for instrument anomalies represent the only realistic challenge.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Hong Kong on April 3?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 3?
27°C 99.8%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$223,470 Vol.
$223,470 Vol.
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
100%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
27°C 99.8%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$223,470 Vol.
$223,470 Vol.
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
100%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 29, 2026, 3:55 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Hong Kong Observatory's official measurement of a maximum air temperature of 27.1°C at its headquarters station on April 3 has driven near-certain trader consensus at 99.9% market-implied probability for the 27°C outcome, reflecting provisional data released in the daily summary. This fits early April norms in Hong Kong's subtropical climate, where average highs range 24-27°C, amplified by the Observatory's seasonal forecast of normal to above-normal temperatures amid a dry easterly airstream, zero rainfall, and humidity of 77-91% that supported steady daytime heating despite limited sunshine (1.0 hour at King's Park). While outlying stations like Tai Po hit 29.6°C, resolution hinges on the primary Observatory reading; rare post-audit revisions for instrument anomalies represent the only realistic challenge.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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