March 2026 CPI's 0.9% month-over-month surge, driven by a 10.9% gasoline spike from war-related oil shocks, has anchored Polymarket trader consensus for April's monthly reading around 0.4-0.6%, with 36.5% implied probability on 0.5% edging out 27.5% for 0.4% amid expectations of energy moderation. Core CPI's stable 0.3% print and softer-than-expected March PPI at 0.5% signal pipeline relief, yet persistent services inflation and upward-revised Fed 2026 forecasts temper downside bets below 0.4%. FOMC minutes highlighted rate hike openness, amplifying uncertainty; resolution hinges on Bureau of Labor Statistics data due mid-May, where energy base effects could swing outcomes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour≤0.3%
9%
0.4%
28%
0.5%
37%
0.6%
15%
0.7%
6%
0.8%
5%
0.9%
2%
1.0%
3%
≥1.1%
3%
≤0.3%
9%
0.4%
28%
0.5%
37%
0.6%
15%
0.7%
6%
0.8%
5%
0.9%
2%
1.0%
3%
≥1.1%
3%
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in April 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Marché ouvert : Apr 10, 2026, 4:49 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in April 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...March 2026 CPI's 0.9% month-over-month surge, driven by a 10.9% gasoline spike from war-related oil shocks, has anchored Polymarket trader consensus for April's monthly reading around 0.4-0.6%, with 36.5% implied probability on 0.5% edging out 27.5% for 0.4% amid expectations of energy moderation. Core CPI's stable 0.3% print and softer-than-expected March PPI at 0.5% signal pipeline relief, yet persistent services inflation and upward-revised Fed 2026 forecasts temper downside bets below 0.4%. FOMC minutes highlighted rate hike openness, amplifying uncertainty; resolution hinges on Bureau of Labor Statistics data due mid-May, where energy base effects could swing outcomes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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