Name: Trump announces additional funding cuts to Harvard before June?
Start: 2025-04-16T16:07:20.319279Z
End: 2025-05-31T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration publicly announces any new federal funding cuts or freezes targeting Harvard University between April 16, and May 31, 2025 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trump announces additional funding cuts to Harvard before June?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) ceases operations entirely, including the termination of all federal programs and activities managed by the agency, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If NASA is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, it will count as a "Yes" resolution.

If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump end NASA in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump, as President of the United States, signs into law a bill that lowers the maximum individual tax rate below 37% at any point between January 19 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Note that the cut does not need to go into effect before the resolution date - it just needs to be signed into law by then.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.



Will Trump cut taxes on high earners in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the U.S. will cut military or intelligence aid to Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Any official announcement signaling a substantial reduction in either military or intelligence aid will qualify, regardless of whether or not the cuts actually occur. 

A qualifying announcement must state an actual decision to cut military or intelligence aid. Conditional, hypothetical, or contingent statements, such as “aid may be cut,” “could be cut,” or “will be cut if…”, will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be official announcements from the Trump Administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting confirming that such cuts have occurred will also suffice.

Will Trump announce a cut to U.S. military or intelligence aid to Ukraine by December 31?

On December 16, 2025, President Donald Trump issued a proclamation titled “Restricting and Limiting the Entry of Foreign Nationals to Protect the Security of the United States”, which updated and expanded partial and full suspensions of entry into the U.S. for nationals of various countries (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/12/restricting-and-limiting-the-entry-of-foreign-nationals-to-protect-the-security-of-the-united-states/). 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump issues any executive order, signs any bill into law, or if the Trump administration otherwise takes any formal action which is aimed at fully or partially suspending entry into the U.S. for nationals of any specific, additional country between market issuance and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying action must be aimed at restricting or banning entry into the United States for nationals of a particular country or countries. Blanket actions to restrict entry for individuals holding certain visa classes, or other generalized entry restrictions, which do not target a specific country or countries, will not count.

Additional country refers to any country not subject to a full or partial suspension of entry as of the December 16 proclamation.

Any qualifying government action taken within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the policy takes effect. However, announcements of future or planned bans which are not made official through government action will not qualify.

Any action meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Internal Revenue Department ceases operations entirely by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the IRS is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Internal Revenue Service it will count as a "Yes" resolution.

If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump abolishes IRS in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any executive order by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, that aims to eliminate or dismantle the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market's primary resolution source will be the Federal Register (https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trump executive order ending NASA in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration publicly releases any files pertaining to Jeffrey Epstein on the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any release will qualify, including re-releases, redacted files, partial releases, unsubstantive materials, or documents whose contents were already known from prior reporting.

Qualifying releases must be made by the Executive Branch itself, such as through an official government website, press release, or FOIA reading room. Transmissions solely to courts, Congress, or other non-Executive entities do not qualify unless the Executive Branch subsequently makes the files publicly accessible.

The following will not qualify:
-Announcements of releases that are not implemented within this market’s timeframe.
-Releases made exclusively by courts, Congress or its committees, state or local governments, private entities, or leaks not officially attributable to the Executive Branch.
-Leaked, unofficial, or anonymously sourced disclosures.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 24, 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action that explicitly eliminates federal income taxes for individuals earning less than $150,000 per year in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Legislation which includes specific exceptions where federal income tax remains applicable for specified groups (whether by income, occupation, or other criteria) will still qualify, as long as the primary outcome of the law is the removal of federal income tax for individuals earning under $150,000. Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g., he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Trump removes income tax on individuals making <$150k?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for June 2026, currently scheduled for June 16-17. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If no June meeting takes place by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". 

Emergency rate cuts will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses, or announces that he will vote for, any candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

Will Trump endorse any candidate for President before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration announces a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement within this market’s timeframe from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to nominate a specific individual for Chair of the Federal Reserve will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs. 

Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.

A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, made before the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, will immediately resolve this market to “Yes”. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from Donald Trump or the Trump administration and official information from the U.S. Senate.

Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S government funding lapse occurs on January 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A funding lapse is defined as the President failing to sign the relevant bill(s) extending government funding by January 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If a bill extending the funding of the U.S. government is passed and signed by the acting President before January 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes," any funding lapse will count. If only a portion of the US government is covered by any signed bill(s) extending funding of the US government, and a portion of the US government goes unfunded, this market will still resolve to "Yes".

The primary resolution for this source will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31?

On April 2, Donald Trump announced a 10% tariff on all imports set to take effect on April 5, 2025 at 12:01 a.m. EDT (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/04/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-declares-national-emergency-to-increase-our-competitive-edge-protect-our-sovereignty-and-strengthen-our-national-and-economic-security/)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action which pauses, delays, or removes the 10% general tariff by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

Actions which remove the general 10% tariff will qualify even if there are item specific exceptions for which the tariff still applies. However, lowering the general tariff below 10% without removing it will not qualify.

Any action which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the removal goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Will Trump remove 10% blanket tariff in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) buys any amount of $TRUMP (https://solscan.io/token/6p6xgHyF7AeE6TZkSmFsko444wqoP15icUSqi2jfGiPN), either directly or through a subsidiary, between July 21, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be announcements through official information from TMTG, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump Media buy $TRUMP in 2025?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump visit China by April 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a bill into law or performs any executive action changing US tax law to eliminate the federal tax exemption on interest from municipal bonds by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the exemption is eliminated only for specific types or classes of municipal bonds (e.g., only newly issued bonds, only bonds from certain states or localities, or only bonds purchased after a certain date), it will still count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market.

If the bill is signed into law, or executive action is instituted before the resolution date, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of when it takes effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump remove municipal bond tax exemption in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

Trump impeached by end of 2026?

In Q4 2024, government expenditures were $7,106,807,000,000 see (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND). 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if federal government current expenditures decrease by 10% or more between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

Any 2025 quarterly report of $6,396,126,000,000 or less will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used.

This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).

Will Elon cut the budget by at least 10% in 2025?

In Q4 2024, government expenditures were $7,106,807,000,000 (see https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND). 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if federal government current expenditures decrease by 5% or more between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

Any 2025 quarterly report of $6,751,467,000,000 or less will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used.

This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).


Will Elon cut the budget by at least 5% in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration publicly releases any files pertaining to the investigation into Jeffrey Epstein, which were not previously public, by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying file must contain substantive information pertaining to the investigation into Jeffrey Epstein. 

The following will qualify: 
-Previously released documents in which redactions containing new substantive content such as names of associates or practices directly pertaining to the activities of Jeffrey Epstein were removed. 
-Documents which weren’t previously public which contain information pertaining to the activities of Jeffrey Epstein which was already known from previous releases (e.g. a previously unreleased document pertaining to the activities of Jeffrey Epstein which mentions Ghislaine Maxwell will qualify even if the information itself isn’t novel) 

The following will not qualify:
-Trivial metadata-only releases, duplicative redactions, or administrative cover sheets without substantive content.
-Files which were created after the start of the Trump Administration (January 20, 2025, 12:00 PM ET).
-Announcements of declassifications or releases that are not implemented within this market's timeframe.
-Releases made exclusively by federal courts (including unsealings), Congress or its committees, state or local governments, private entities, or leaks not officially attributable to the Executive Branch.
-Releases made by non-Executive entities, even if based on Executive Branch filings or requests.
-Court-ordered FOIA disclosures or FOIA litigation records provided by a court.
-Leaked, unofficial, or anonymously sourced disclosures will not qualify 

For a release to qualify, the Executive Branch must itself publish the files to the public, such as through an official website, public press release, or FOIA reading room. Transmissions to Congress, courts, or other non-Executive entities do not qualify unless the Executive Branch subsequently makes the files publicly accessible.

FOIA responses qualify only if the Executive Branch agency itself publicly releases the responsive files. FOIA disclosures published by courts as part of litigation do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 26?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Evidence Trump went to Epstein's Island made public
- Trump out as President
- Trump impeached
- Any Trump cabinet member out

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Trump-Epstein+Parlay.pdf

Trump-Epstein Parlay

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action enacting a tariff on imports of semiconductors into the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only tariffs specifically targeting semiconductors will qualify. For example, a general tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) or country-specific tariff (tariffs on all imports from China) will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tariffs on semiconductors from a specific country will qualify.

Any tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Trump imposes tariff on semiconductors by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.

This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.

Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration or the U.S. government announces that it is sending, has sent, or will send Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying statement within the specified timeframe will suffice regardless of when the missiles are sent.

For the purposes of this market, official policy announcements from the Trump administration or the U.S. government will qualify. Informal statements, leaks, or speculative remarks will not be sufficient.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, the U.S. government, or the government of Ukraine. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used if no direct official statement is available.

Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by March 31?

The Epstein Files Transparency Act requires the Department of Justice to release all unclassified Epstein-related documents within 30 days of its enactment, setting the legal deadline for publication at 11:59 PM Eastern Time on December 19, 2025.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration publicly releases any files pertaining to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein, which weren’t previously public by the listed date  (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying file must contain substantive information pertaining to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein. 

The following will qualify: 
-Previously released documents in which redactions containing new substantive content such as names of associates or practices directly pertaining to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein were removed. 
-Documents that weren’t previously public and contain information pertaining to  the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein, even if that information was already known from previous releases (e.g. a previously unreleased document pertaining to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein which mentions Ghislaine Maxwell will qualify even if the information itself isn’t novel) 

The following will not qualify:
-Trivial metadata-only releases, duplicative redactions, or administrative cover sheets without substantive content.
-Files which were created after the start of the Trump Administration (January 20, 2025, 12:00 PM ET).
-Announcements of declassifications or releases that are not implemented within this market's timeframe.
-Releases made exclusively by federal courts (including unsealings), Congress or its committees, state or local governments, private entities, or leaks not officially attributable to the Executive Branch.
-Releases made by non-Executive entities, even if based on Executive Branch filings or requests.
-Court-ordered FOIA disclosures or FOIA litigation records provided by a court.
-Leaked, unofficial, or anonymously sourced disclosures will not qualify 

For a release to qualify, the Executive Branch must itself publish the files to the public, such as through an official website, public press release, or FOIA reading room. Transmissions to Congress, courts, or other non-Executive entities do not qualify unless the Executive Branch subsequently makes the files publicly accessible.

FOIA responses qualify only if the Executive Branch agency itself publicly releases the responsive files. FOIA disclosures published by courts as part of litigation do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump issues a presidential veto, by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET, of any bill or resolution that explicitly mandates, compels, or formally calls for the public release of documents related to Jeffrey Epstein. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be official congressional records and a consensus of credible reporting.

Trump announces additional funding cuts to Harvard before June?

Market Context

Trump announces additional funding cuts to Harvard before June?

Rules

Trump announces additional funding cuts to Harvard before June?

Market Context

Trump announces additional funding cuts to Harvard before June?

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