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Will there be a variant that overtakes Omicron in the US by...?

Market icon

Will there be a variant that overtakes Omicron in the US by...?

$13,667 Vol.

Feb 15, 2022
Polymarket

$13,667 Vol.

Polymarket
Market icon

By February 15th?

$880 Vol.

No

Market icon

By March 15th?

$3,723 Vol.

No

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By April 19th?

$6,561 Vol.

No

Market icon

By May 17th?

$2,503 Vol.

No

This is a market on whether there will be a variant that overtakes the Omicron variant in the US by February 15, 2022. The market will resolve to “Yes” if in the US, a variant has a higher proportion of cases than Omicron on any day after the inception of this market, January 10, 2022, and on or before February 15, 2022. Otherwise, the market will resolver to “No.” The resolution source will be the weekly CDC Nowcast reports on variant proportions: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions. The source will be checked daily at 8 PM ET to see if any of their reports within the market timeframe has a variant with higher % in the TOTAL column than Omicron. The final check will be on February 15, 2022, at 8 PM ET. If the link to the source changes, the new source will be used. If the source is unavailable for any of the checks, https://covariants.org/per-country will be used instead.This is a market on whether there will be a variant that overtakes the Omicron variant in the US by March 15, 2022. The market will resolve to “Yes” if in the US, a variant has a higher proportion of cases than Omicron on any day after the inception of this market, January 10, 2022, and on or before March 15, 2022. Otherwise, the market will resolver to “No.” The resolution source will be the weekly CDC Nowcast reports on variant proportions: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions. The source will be checked daily at 8 PM ET to see if any of their reports within the market timeframe has a variant with higher % in the TOTAL column than Omicron. The final check will be on March 15, 2022, at 8 PM ET. If the link to the source changes, the new source will be used. If the source is unavailable for any of the checks, https://covariants.org/per-country will be used instead.This is a market on whether there will be a variant that overtakes the Omicron variant in the US by April 19, 2022. The market will resolve to “Yes” if in the US, a variant has a higher proportion of cases than Omicron on any day after the inception of this market, January 10, 2022, and on or before April 19, 2022. Otherwise, the market will resolver to “No.” The resolution source will be the weekly CDC Nowcast reports on variant proportions: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions. The source will be checked daily at 8 PM ET to see if any of their reports within the market timeframe has a variant with higher % in the TOTAL column than Omicron. The final check will be on April 19, 2022, at 8 PM ET. If the link to the source changes, the new source will be used. If the source is unavailable for any of the checks, https://covariants.org/per-country will be used instead.This is a market on whether there will be a variant that overtakes the Omicron variant in the US by May 17, 2022. The market will resolve to “Yes” if in the US, a variant has a higher proportion of cases than Omicron on any day after the inception of this market, January 10, 2022, and on or before May 17, 2022. Otherwise, the market will resolver to “No.” The resolution source will be the weekly CDC Nowcast reports on variant proportions: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions. The source will be checked daily at 8 PM ET to see if any of their reports within the market timeframe has a variant with higher % in the TOTAL column than Omicron. The final check will be on May 17, 2022, at 8 PM ET. If the link to the source changes, the new source will be used. If the source is unavailable for any of the checks, https://covariants.org/per-country will be used instead.

This is a market on whether there will be a variant that overtakes the Omicron variant in the US by February 15, 2022. The market will resolve to “Yes” if in the US, a variant has a higher proportion of cases than Omicron on any day after the inception of this market, January 10, 2022, and on or before February 15, 2022. Otherwise, the market will resolver to “No.” The resolution source will be the weekly CDC Nowcast reports on variant proportions: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions. The source will be checked daily at 8 PM ET to see if any of their reports within the market timeframe has a variant with higher % in the TOTAL column than Omicron. The final check will be on February 15, 2022, at 8 PM ET. If the link to the source changes, the new source will be used. If the source is unavailable for any of the checks, https://covariants.org/per-country will be used instead.This is a market on whether there will be a variant that overtakes the Omicron variant in the US by March 15, 2022. The market will resolve to “Yes” if in the US, a variant has a higher proportion of cases than Omicron on any day after the inception of this market, January 10, 2022, and on or before March 15, 2022. Otherwise, the market will resolver to “No.” The resolution source will be the weekly CDC Nowcast reports on variant proportions: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions. The source will be checked daily at 8 PM ET to see if any of their reports within the market timeframe has a variant with higher % in the TOTAL column than Omicron. The final check will be on March 15, 2022, at 8 PM ET. If the link to the source changes, the new source will be used. If the source is unavailable for any of the checks, https://covariants.org/per-country will be used instead.This is a market on whether there will be a variant that overtakes the Omicron variant in the US by April 19, 2022. The market will resolve to “Yes” if in the US, a variant has a higher proportion of cases than Omicron on any day after the inception of this market, January 10, 2022, and on or before April 19, 2022. Otherwise, the market will resolver to “No.” The resolution source will be the weekly CDC Nowcast reports on variant proportions: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions. The source will be checked daily at 8 PM ET to see if any of their reports within the market timeframe has a variant with higher % in the TOTAL column than Omicron. The final check will be on April 19, 2022, at 8 PM ET. If the link to the source changes, the new source will be used. If the source is unavailable for any of the checks, https://covariants.org/per-country will be used instead.This is a market on whether there will be a variant that overtakes the Omicron variant in the US by May 17, 2022. The market will resolve to “Yes” if in the US, a variant has a higher proportion of cases than Omicron on any day after the inception of this market, January 10, 2022, and on or before May 17, 2022. Otherwise, the market will resolver to “No.” The resolution source will be the weekly CDC Nowcast reports on variant proportions: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions. The source will be checked daily at 8 PM ET to see if any of their reports within the market timeframe has a variant with higher % in the TOTAL column than Omicron. The final check will be on May 17, 2022, at 8 PM ET. If the link to the source changes, the new source will be used. If the source is unavailable for any of the checks, https://covariants.org/per-country will be used instead.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will there be a variant that overtakes Omicron in the US by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "By February 15th?" at 0%, followed by "By March 15th?" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 0¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 0% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will there be a variant that overtakes Omicron in the US by...?" has generated $13.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 11, 2022. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will there be a variant that overtakes Omicron in the US by...?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Will there be a variant that overtakes Omicron in the US by...?" is "By February 15th?" at just 0%, with "By March 15th?" close behind at 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Will there be a variant that overtakes Omicron in the US by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.