This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection between E50 and вул. Яблунева located in Novopavlivka by September 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.

The intersection station will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Intersection Location in Novopavlivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/novopavlivka+intersection+zoom.png

Novopavlivka location in region: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/novopavlivka+zoom.jpeg

Novopavlivka location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/novopavlivka.png

Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/G9dEeKpAi1xB6cMz5

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.