Name: Will Elon register the America Party by...?
Start: 2025-07-06T05:02:42.205829Z
End: 2025-12-31T00:00:00Z

Use the internal polymarket geolocation service.

poly_geo

Improved notification preferences and types.

notifications_v2

funkit_deposit

funkit_withdraw

authenticated_book_ws

Improved in-game view for sports markets.

mobile_sports_overlay_v2

async_order_submission

Enable updates from the sports websocket.

sports_websocket

This is a market on whether Elon Musk will officially register the America Party by the specified date.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk formally registers a political party named the “America Party” in the United States between July 5, 2025 and July 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The registration must be made with a relevant state or federal election authority and reported as such by a consensus of credible media outlets.

Minor name variations that clearly refer to the same party—such as “American Party,” “The America Party,” or similar—will also qualify, provided credible reporting confirms the intent and connection to Musk.




July 31

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk formally registers a political party named the “America Party” in the United States between July 5, 2025 and September 30, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The registration must be made with a relevant state or federal election authority and reported as such by a consensus of credible media outlets.

Minor name variations that clearly refer to the same party—such as “American Party,” “The America Party,” or similar—will also qualify, provided credible reporting confirms the intent and connection to Musk.




September 30

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk formally registers a political party named the “America Party” in the United States between July 5, 2025 and December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The registration must be made with a relevant state or federal election authority and reported as such by a consensus of credible media outlets.

Minor name variations that clearly refer to the same party—such as “American Party,” “The America Party,” or similar—will also qualify, provided credible reporting confirms the intent and connection to Musk.




December 31

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk formally registers a political party named the “America Party” in the United States between July 5, 2025 and August 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The registration must be made with a relevant state or federal election authority and reported as such by a consensus of credible media outlets.

Minor name variations that clearly refer to the same party—such as “American Party,” “The America Party,” or similar—will also qualify, provided credible reporting confirms the intent and connection to Musk.




August 31

Elon Party

Will Elon register the America Party by...?

No tweets are available for analysis at this time. Further updates will be provided as new information or social media activity becomes accessible.

Market Update Pending

There are no tweets provided for analysis at this time. Without content to summarize, no key events or sentiments can be reported.

No Tweets Available

No significant events or updates were reported in the analyzed data. The absence of notable activity suggests a period of stability or lack of major influencing factors at this time.

Market News Update

There are no tweets provided for analysis at this time. Please provide relevant social media content to generate a summary and title.

There are no tweets or updates to summarize at this time. Please check back later for relevant information or updates on market activity.

No Updates Available

Elon Musk is at the center of discussions for proposing a new political party, tentatively called the 'America Party' or 'America First,' aimed at representing centrists and challenging the current political landscape. This idea has sparked varied reactions, with some seeing it as a potential boost to democracy, while others criticize it as a polarizing move backed by billionaires and foreign influences.

Elon Musk's Party Proposal

I believe that a new political party strengthens a country's democracy every day; for example, Elon Musk's Party of America in the United States could be considered constitutional by American congressmen if they so wished, and freedom of expression would triumph. https://t.co/H0IxUZ5Yc9

“The Republican Party is not strong, Donald Trump is strong.” -Megyn Kelly

No, clown, Elon Musk and foreign counties that have nothing to do with America are the only reason Donald Trump won.

Your party is carried by endless billionaires from random countries and it’s pathetic.

I believe in America First.   America First above all else except for my belief in God!  Elon Musk should start another political party and he should start it with Nicholas J Fuentes &amp; Tucker Carlson.  It should be called the America First!

We the sovereign citizens of this great Constitutional republic are unwittingly trapped in this Hegelian dialectic “left-right paradigm.” Solution? The America Party by Elon Musk.  I have the theme song: “This is Not America” by composer Pat Matheny. https://t.co/RIhivIShuW

If Republicans capitulate, I will back Elon Musk idea of forming a new political party.
Are Republicans afraid of democrats ?
Democrats do and have done whatever they want, open the borders, impeaching Trump without any evidence, wasting your money, etc. https://t.co/P0s8Ez6ggM

🚨 Musk's polarizing politics—feud with Trump, launch of "America Party" (July 2025) to represent centrists, and vocal criticism of figures like the Anti-Defamation League—have impacted Tesla sales and intensified corporate scrutiny. Some say at least a million EV sales lost due

In case you’re wondering about when/if the Republican House will deal with the most critical issue defining whether our Constitutional Republic will survive. 

So far, the same old, same old. 

It looks like Elon was correct that the only solution is a new political party. https://t.co/FZ16Nco9a4

Elon Musk is being widely discussed as a potential leader of a new political party in the United States, with many expressing frustration over the current Republican and Democratic parties. Proposals for names like 'America First' or 'MAGA Party' reflect a desire for a fresh political movement focused on national priorities and conservative values.

Elon Proposes New Party

Time to light up the BAT signal. Elon has done so much to help America.   We need one more big favor.  HELP MAGA create a third political party.  America will die waiting on  Republicans and Democrats to do the right things.  The MAGA Party with true conservatives and Godly value https://t.co/H0TmbQqZKE

If you're an American you should vote America party 2028 (if Elon continues with that idea since we definitely need a 3rd party in USA)

Generally, I'm only voting republican if Elon links back up or to keep Dems out 💀 https://t.co/0m0pIwMJGs

They are not America first. Republicans are just as corrupt as democrats.
We ether rise up and vote them all out midterms or our nation is lost. Globalist take over.
Elon was right we need a third party https://t.co/ZRzYDjOCFY

No significant social media activity or specific events are reported at this time to explain the market price movement. Further analysis of other data sources may be necessary to understand the underlying causes.

No specific events or news are available from the provided data to summarize at this time. Further information is needed to assess any impact or context related to market movements.

Market Event Update

No significant events or updates have been reported in the current data set. Further information is needed to assess any impactful developments.

Elon Musk is being widely discussed as a potential founder of a new political party in the United States, often referred to as the 'America First' or 'America Party,' with suggestions to collaborate with figures like Nicholas J. Fuentes and Tucker Carlson. This idea emerges amidst criticism of the Republican Party's strength and frustration with current political dynamics, with some viewing it as a way to strengthen democracy and freedom of expression.

Elon Musk Party Proposal

There are no tweets or social media activity provided for analysis at this time. Without data, no summary or context regarding market price movements can be generated.

No Activity Reported

No significant events or updates were reported in the provided data. The lack of specific information suggests a period of relative stability or absence of major influencing factors at this time.

There are no tweets provided for analysis at this time. Without specific content to summarize, no key events or sentiments can be reported.

Due to the absence of specific tweets or data provided for analysis, no detailed summary of events or sentiments can be generated at this time. Please provide relevant social media content or other data to enable a comprehensive analysis of the situation.

Market Event Summary

No tweets or relevant data are provided for analysis at this time. Unable to generate a summary or context regarding market sentiment or price movement.

Market Update Unavailable

Elon Musk is reportedly contemplating the launch of a new political party, dubbed the 'America Party,' amid growing dissatisfaction with the current state of the Republican Party and Trump's leadership, which many believe is damaging the MAGA movement. This idea gains traction as influential voices and disillusioned voters express support for a third party to challenge the existing political elite and address pressing national issues.

Musk Considers America Party

Maybe Elon Musk has abandoned too early his idea to start an America party. Trump is destroying MAGA each day more and more efficiently. But MAGA is essential element in GOP victory. Without it Dems will win and this time forever. There is no more hope on Trump. Why not America?

Dugin says Musk's idea for an America party was 'abandoned too early'

'Trump is destroying MAGA every day, there is no more hope for Trump'

The Russian philosopher insists MAGA is key for future Republican victories 

Could Elon pick up the MAGA gauntlet? https://t.co/AahSmVp2Eu

Enraged Elon Musk Vows To Start ‘America Party’ If Republicans Pass “$5 Trillion Debt” Bill

https://t.co/yamBPpG1cS https://t.co/ctkBQNYnmF

Elon Musk Might Launch A Political Party And Millions Of Americans Actually Want One

https://t.co/7Yh5TIezMB https://t.co/FXsq65zN2A

Elon Musk is considering backing JD VANCE in 2028 rather than starting a new party

As of today, how would you rate your level of support for JD Vance?

A. Very Strong Support (100%)
B. Strong Support (75%)
C. Moderate Support (50%)
D. Limited Support (25%)
E. No Support (0%) https://t.co/JILs9VJpMw

Hey Elon @elonmusk 

Now is the perfect time to launch this 3rd political party, there are millions of jaded and disillusioned voters asking what the hell is going on right now https://t.co/HwkhUe6GE8

After DJT's Laura Ingraham interview, it might be time to revisit Elon's new political party idea again... though it might come with infinity H1B's as well 😩 https://t.co/celuqd7Zii

Trump and MAGA is failing right in front of our eyes.

Others have a ton of influence on ALL of USA's elites &amp; political class.

Elon we may need that new party sir.

Elon was just early with the America party

You all laughed at Elon (or branded him a traitor) for his “America party” stuff. You’re apparently still too new to betrayal.

No significant events or updates have been reported in the provided data. Further information is needed to assess any impactful developments.

There are no tweets available for analysis at this time. Without data, no significant events or sentiments can be summarized.

There are no tweets or social media activity available for analysis at this time. Without data, no key events or market influences can be summarized.

Elon Musk has announced the formation of the 'America Party,' following public support and a fallout with Donald Trump, who criticized Musk's stance on spending bills. This move signals a potential fracture among Republican factions, with the America Party emerging as a distinct entity separate from Trump's MAGA and other conservative groups.

Elon Forms America Party

Elon Musk Says 'America Party' Formed After Poll on X Shows Support - Business Insider https://t.co/1iO65C6c7k

It’s times like this I really wish Elon Musk would move forward with The America Party. We need a true America First party. I want a party I can actually feel good voting for. Trump has soured many of us on the whole ‘Maga’ thing.

Might be a good time to DCA into $AP / $AMERICA, America Party on Sol. It originally appeared back when Elon and Trump had their public beef, and Elon mentioned Trump is in Epstein files. Elon said he's launching his own party "America Party" and after a while deleted the tweet https://t.co/oQZE0rlr33 https://t.co/OT3kjVnrHv

So Republicans seem to be fracturing into a bunch of groups.
There is classic MAGA, under Trump
There is America party, under Elon
and America First, under Nick Fuentes

I think, depending on which one you follow you can make predictive character guesses of the person.

Might be a good time to DCA into $AP, America Party on Sol. It originally appeared back when Elon and Trump had their public beef, and Elon mentioned Trump is in Epstein files. Elon said he's launching his own party "America Party" and after a while deleted the tweet and stop https://t.co/2nInTXL2B0 https://t.co/OT3kjVnrHv

Elon Musk is reportedly considering supporting JD Vance for the 2028 presidential race instead of forming a new political party, sparking varied reactions among political commentators. Discussions also swirl around the concept of an 'America Party' and doubts from figures like Ben Shapiro on Vance's potential as a Republican successor.

Musk Backs Vance 2028

Elon Musk is considering backing JD VANCE in 2028 rather than starting a new party

As of today, how would you rate your level of support for JD Vance?

A. Very Strong Support (100%)
B. Strong Support (75%)
C. Moderate Support (50%)
D. Limited Support (25%)
E. No Support (0%) https://t.co/Lw7uWTlVEJ

Ben Shapiro Casts Doubt on JD Vance's 2028 Chances https://t.co/PS3qE1iZsN  BEN SHAPIRO AGREES WITH ME. NOBILLY VANCE IS NOT THE SUCCESSOR OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY. JUST LIKE PDT HAS SAID.  MORE THAN EVER, WE NEED THE AMERICA PARTY WITH ITS LEADER WHO SAVED AMERICA. 🇺🇸ELON MUSK🇺🇸.

“You Won’t Believe What Elon Musk Just Said About His ‘New Party’ — And Why It’s Shaking Things Up” https://t.co/4LJMAsrWWG

So, was Elon right to create the America Party?

Elon Musk stay out of this JD Vance is a Zionist supporter. You need to stay out of it if you know whats good for America.🇺🇸 Work with all your heart and soul to get to Mars ,you saw what happened with Trump keep working on on your project stay out of politics.. https://t.co/NCThezdJOW https://t.co/2O00SIfMNn

No significant events or updates are available at this time due to the absence of relevant social media content. Further monitoring is required to provide insights on key developments.

Elon Musk is reportedly considering backing JD Vance for the 2028 election instead of forming a new political party. This potential endorsement has sparked discussions and varying levels of support among followers.

Musk Considers Vance Support

Elon Musk is reportedly considering supporting JD Vance for the 2028 election instead of forming a new political party. This potential endorsement has sparked discussions and varying levels of support among followers.

Musk Backs Vance

Elon Musk is considering backing JD VANCE in 2028 rather than starting a new party

As of today, how would you rate your level of support for JD Vance?

A. Very Strong Support (100%)
B. Strong Support (75%)
C. Moderate Support (50%)
D. Limited Support (25%)
E. No Support (0%) https://t.co/RErzg7Wa1k

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk formally registers a political party in the United States by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The registration must be made with a relevant state or federal election authority and reported as such by a consensus of credible media outlets.

Will Elon register any party before 2027?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between this market’s creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- Elon Musk rejoins Trump Administration
- Trump deports Elon Musk
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here: 
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Nothing+Ever+Happens+Elon+Musk+Edition.pdf

Nothing Ever Happens: Elon Edition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the existence of another Elon Musk child is confirmed between December 10, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any child explicitly claimed by Elon Musk or confirmed to be his child by a consensus of credible reporting will qualify.

Qualifying announcements of a pregnancy will count.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Elon Musk and a consensus of credible reporting.

Another Elon baby by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is a guest on any "The Joe Rogan Experience" podcast episode between December 1, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If a consensus of credible reporting confirms Elon Musk recorded an episode with Rogan before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of when/if it is released.

The primary resolution source for this market will be Spotify and/or Youtube, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Elon Musk go on Joe Rogan before June 30?

Investor Bill Ackman proposed on X that Elon Musk take SpaceX public through a merger with Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd., a company founded and run by Ackman to innovatively transact public offerings through the use of Special Purpose Acquisition Rights or “SPARs” (see: https://x.com/BillAckman/status/2002484983123136990).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions are met:

- An agreed merger or business combination deal between SpaceX and Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd. is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- An offering of “SPARs” to Tesla Shareholders or other individuals which represent a subscription warrant to purchase shares in a business combination of Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd. and SpaceX is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An official announcement of an agreed merger/combination of these two companies or a SPAR offering of subscription warrants to purchase shares in a combination of these companies will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the merger or SPAR offering actually occurs.

If SpaceX goes public through another means, (i.e. SpaceX IPOs through a typical listing of their shares on a public stock exchange), this market will resolve immediately to “No”

The primary resolution source for this market will be official company communications and/or regulatory filings from SpaceX and Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd.; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

SpaceX goes public through Bill Ackman "SPAR" company?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Elon Musk (@elonmusk) unfollows Grimes (@Grimezsz) on X at any point between December 10, 2025, 2PM ET and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If either of the ‘@elonmusk’ or ‘@Grimezsz’ X accounts are deleted or disabled this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be Elon Musk X account (@elonmusk), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Elon Musk unfollow Grimes by January 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual  will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.

To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.

The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.

Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve according to the public ticker symbol used by SpaceX in an IPO (Initial Public Offering) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

An official announcement from SpaceX that they will IPO under a specific ticker symbol will be sufficient to resolve this market.

If a ticker used by SpaceX in a qualifying IPO is a variant of a ticker symbol listed in this market group with additional letters to denote a specific class of shares, it will be considered to be that ticker (e.g. if SpaceX uses a ticker symbol of $MARS.A or $MARSA, this market will resolve to $MARS).

If SpaceX announces an IPO with multiple tickers that are not considered the same ticker under the previous rule (i.e. $MARS.A and $MARS.B would be considered the same ticker), this market will remain open until SpaceX’s first day of public trading and will resolve according to the ticker symbolizing the security class with the greatest market capitalization. Market capitalization is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve according to the ticker symbol that comes first in alphabetical order.

If SpaceX IPOs with a non-listed ticker, or does not IPO or officially announce an IPO and ticker symbol by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceX and the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

Note: In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will use the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will use the closing price on the next trading day for which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.

Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.

The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.

Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.

This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses, or announces that he will vote for, any candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

Will Trump endorse any candidate for President before 2027?

The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly announces and launches a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

A "consumer hardware product" is defined as a physical device intended for direct use by individual consumers, rather than enterprise or developer tools. The product must be newly introduced and not a rebrand, update, or iteration of any previously released device.

Examples that would qualify include an AI-powered wearable, smart home assistant, or augmented reality device. Developer tools, AI chips, or servers marketed exclusively for enterprise use would not qualify.

The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.

Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gavin Newsom officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Gavin Newsom will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Gavin Newsom (e.g., via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Spark officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Spark (https://x.com/spark), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Spark launch a token by December 31, 2026

This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of SpaceX.

If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or SpaceX completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.”

If multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the order in which the banks are listed in the underwriting section of SpaceX’s final initial public offering prospectus, once released.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official disclosures from SpaceX. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any AI or LLM by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The charge or indictment of a company or organization behind the AI or large language model will not be sufficient. Charges or indictments must be of the AI or LLM itself. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nansen (https://www.nansen.ai/) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Nansen, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla publicly releases an unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability that satisfies all of the following criteria by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

1. Tesla (or Elon Musk) must label the feature “Full Self-Driving” or use an equivalent name indicating no requirement for human intervention.

2. The system must operate on public roads without a human driver present or required to oversee its performance. In practice, this means either:
- The vehicle runs with no one in the driver’s seat, or
- The vehicle operates in a mode where no occupant is expected to monitor or intervene.

3. Tesla or any Tesla-affiliated entity must make the unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability broadly accessible either through a robo-taxi or ride-hailing service open to the public, or inclusion as a standard or optional feature on newly sold Tesla vehicles, or a software update that enables unsupervised operation in current vehicles.

Any mode that requires a licensed driver to be seated in the vehicle, or for a human (on-site or remote) to continuously supervise the driving performance or remain ready to intervene at any moment, will not qualify. However, remote monitoring that does not involve continuous supervision or expectation of real-time intervention—for example, oversight limited to emergency response—will not disqualify the service.

This market’s resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses, or announces that he will vote for, JD Vance for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

If Donald Trump announces that he will vote for another candidate or endorses another candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Exponent (https://x.com/ExponentFinance) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Exponent, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Donald Trump’s Social Media and Cryptocurrency company Trump Media and Technology Group and the fusion power company TAE Technologies announced they had agreed to a merger deal on December 18th, signaling a shift of focus for the Trump-owned firm. You can read more about that here: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/18/business/trump-media-tae-technologies-fusion-power-deal.html

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the merger between Trump Media and Technology Group and TAE Technologies is completed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The merger will be considered completed once it has become legally effective and the two companies are now a single entity or they exist under a single entity as one corporate group, as evidenced by official company announcements and/or regulatory filings (e.g. the filing of an 8-K form to the SEC that announces the closure of the deal). Shareholder approval, receipt of regulatory approvals, regulatory filings which do not announce the closure of the deal, or other intermediate steps towards the closing of a deal will not alone be sufficient for a ‘Yes’ resolution.

If the merger agreement is officially terminated or the deal has been abandoned according to official company communications, this market will resolve to “No”.

Resolution will be based on official company communications and regulatory filings from Trump Media and Technology Group, TAE Technologies, or a combined successor entity, supplemented as needed by a consensus of reporting from major reputable news outlets.

Trump Media x TAE Technologies merger closed by March 31?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump visit China by April 30?

This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.

If Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.

Will Trump endorse Steve Hilton in CA-Gov for Nov 2 2026 ET?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.

If OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?

This market will resolve according to the candidate Bernie Sanders announces that he will vote for or endorses for the listed election.

If Bernie Sanders does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Bernie Sanders or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Bernie Sanders' endorsement.

Will Bernie endorse Antonio Delgado for NY-Gov by Nov 2 2026 ET?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any state or federally elected Minnesota politician for fraud, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will any Minnesota politician be charged with fraud by March 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kamala Harris officially announces that she is running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by Kamala Harris will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether she actually filed a nomination to run, or whether she actually files a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Kamala Harris or her legal or social media representatives (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.

OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.

Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.

If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.

If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will 

The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.

OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if USD.AI officially launches a governance token by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from USD.AI (https://x.com/USDai_Official), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Base officially launches a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration announces a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement within this market’s timeframe from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to nominate a specific individual for Chair of the Federal Reserve will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs. 

Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.

A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, made before the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, will immediately resolve this market to “Yes”. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from Donald Trump or the Trump administration and official information from the U.S. Senate.

Will Elon register the America Party by...?

July 31
$599,086 Vol.
No

August 31
$19,106 Vol.
No

September 30
$135,618 Vol.
No

December 31
$389,561 Vol.
No

Market Context

Will Elon register the America Party by...?

Rules

Will Elon register the America Party by...?

Market Context

Will Elon register the America Party by...?

About

Related

Will Elon register the America Party by...?

July 31$599,086 Vol.Nocircle xmark

August 31$19,106 Vol.Nocircle xmark

September 30$135,618 Vol.Nocircle xmark

December 31$389,561 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Market Context

Will Elon register the America Party by...?

Rules

Will Elon register the America Party by...?

Market Context

Will Elon register the America Party by...?

About

Related

July 31
$599,086 Vol.
No

August 31
$19,106 Vol.
No

September 30
$135,618 Vol.
No

December 31
$389,561 Vol.
No