President Javier Milei's administration has shifted away from full dollarization, with the president stating last week that "people don't want it" amid public preference for the peso and voluntary dollar use. Traders' near-unanimous 98.4% consensus on "No" reflects the absence of legislative progress, insufficient foreign reserves to back a monetary base swap—estimated at tens of billions—and success of alternative reforms, including a new exchange-rate band launched January 2026, fiscal surplus after 15 years, and central bank dollar purchases totaling hundreds of millions recently. With just over two months to June 30, structural barriers like congressional approval and ongoing IMF negotiations make official adoption highly improbable, though massive reserve inflows or an executive decree could theoretically shift dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$12,282 Vol.
$12,282 Vol.
$12,282 Vol.
$12,282 Vol.
An announcement that dollarization will begin will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" - for this market to resolve to "Yes", dollarization must have actually begun.
Note: a peg does not need to be 1:1 to USD.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting indicating either of the listed scenarios have begun.
Market Opened: Oct 31, 2025, 11:18 AM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...An announcement that dollarization will begin will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" - for this market to resolve to "Yes", dollarization must have actually begun.
Note: a peg does not need to be 1:1 to USD.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting indicating either of the listed scenarios have begun.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...President Javier Milei's administration has shifted away from full dollarization, with the president stating last week that "people don't want it" amid public preference for the peso and voluntary dollar use. Traders' near-unanimous 98.4% consensus on "No" reflects the absence of legislative progress, insufficient foreign reserves to back a monetary base swap—estimated at tens of billions—and success of alternative reforms, including a new exchange-rate band launched January 2026, fiscal surplus after 15 years, and central bank dollar purchases totaling hundreds of millions recently. With just over two months to June 30, structural barriers like congressional approval and ongoing IMF negotiations make official adoption highly improbable, though massive reserve inflows or an executive decree could theoretically shift dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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