Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Will Abdullah Öcalan be freed before April?

Name: Will Abdullah Öcalan be freed before April?
Start: 2025-03-31T12:00:00.000Z
End: 2025-03-31T12:00:00.000Z

<1% chance

$17,283 Vol.

Mar 31, 2025

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abdullah Öcalan is released from custody by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Öcalan is released from custody by the resolution date but remains under house arrest, the market will immediately resolve to "Yes". If Öcalan is released on bond, this will count as being released from custody and the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Öcalan to another location of custody will NOT suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from relevant government bodies, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Will Abdullah Öcalan be freed before April?

<1% chance

$17,283 Vol.

Mar 31, 2025

About

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Will Abdullah Öcalan be freed before April?

Market Context