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Will a hurricane make landfall in the lower 48 U.S. states by August 31?

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Will a hurricane make landfall in the lower 48 U.S. states by August 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between August 2, 2022 (3:00 PM ET), and August 31, 2022 (11:59:59 PM ET), as listed on the National Hurricane Center website (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If no tropical systems with hurricane status make landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". This market may only resolve to "No" after August 31, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met. For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL This market will resolve based on an initial announcement released by NOAA that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between August 2, 2022 (3:00 PM ET), and August 31, 2022 (11:59:59 PM ET), as listed on the National Hurricane Center website (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If no tropical systems with hurricane status make landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". This market may only resolve to "No" after August 31, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met. For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL This market will resolve based on an initial announcement released by NOAA that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will a hurricane make landfall in the lower 48 U.S. states by August 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 0% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 0¢, the market collectively assigns a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will a hurricane make landfall in the lower 48 U.S. states by August 31?" has generated $13.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 2, 2022. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will a hurricane make landfall in the lower 48 U.S. states by August 31?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will a hurricane make landfall in the lower 48 U.S. states by August 31?" is 0% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will a hurricane make landfall in the lower 48 U.S. states by August 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.