The Trump administration's February 20, 2026, proclamation under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 imposed a temporary 10% ad valorem tariff on nearly all imports, effective February 24, to address international payment imbalances following a Supreme Court ruling invalidating prior IEEPA-based levies. This blanket measure, authorized for 150 days without congressional approval, remains fully operational as of March 31, with U.S. Customs and Border Protection actively collecting duties, driving trader consensus to 99.1% "Yes." While plans for potential hikes to 15% have surfaced, no verified actions have altered the 10% rate; rare disruptions like an emergency injunction, congressional override, or executive reversal could theoretically intervene before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$74,126 Vol.
$74,126 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
$74,126 Vol.
$74,126 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general or blanket US tariff of 10% or more on imports into the United States is in effect on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A general or blanket tariff is a tariff policy that applies a baseline tariff rate of 10% or greater to imports broadly, rather than being limited to a narrow set of products or countries. A tariff that includes item-specific, country-specific, or other limited exceptions will still qualify, as long as a baseline policy of a 10% or greater tariff on imports into the United States is in effect at the specified time.
“In effect" means the tariff must be operational in its application to US imports at the specified time. General or blanket tariffs which go into effect, but are then blocked, injuncted, repealed, or otherwise invalidated such that a blanket tariff rate of 10% or more is not being imposed on imports into the United States at this market’s resolution time will not count.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible information may also be used.The Trump administration's February 20, 2026, proclamation under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 imposed a temporary 10% ad valorem tariff on nearly all imports, effective February 24, to address international payment imbalances following a Supreme Court ruling invalidating prior IEEPA-based levies. This blanket measure, authorized for 150 days without congressional approval, remains fully operational as of March 31, with U.S. Customs and Border Protection actively collecting duties, driving trader consensus to 99.1% "Yes." While plans for potential hikes to 15% have surfaced, no verified actions have altered the 10% rate; rare disruptions like an emergency injunction, congressional override, or executive reversal could theoretically intervene before resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general or blanket US tariff of 10% or more on imports into the United States is in effect on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A general or blanket tariff is a tariff policy that applies a baseline tariff rate of 10% or greater to imports broadly, rather than being limited to a narrow set of products or countries. A tariff that includes item-specific, country-specific, or other limited exceptions will still qualify, as long as a baseline policy of a 10% or greater tariff on imports into the United States is in effect at the specified time.
“In effect" means the tariff must be operational in its application to US imports at the specified time. General or blanket tariffs which go into effect, but are then blocked, injuncted, repealed, or otherwise invalidated such that a blanket tariff rate of 10% or more is not being imposed on imports into the United States at this market’s resolution time will not count.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible information may also be used.
A general or blanket tariff is a tariff policy that applies a baseline tariff rate of 10% or greater to imports broadly, rather than being limited to a narrow set of products or countries. A tariff that includes item-specific, country-specific, or other limited exceptions will still qualify, as long as a baseline policy of a 10% or greater tariff on imports into the United States is in effect at the specified time.
“In effect" means the tariff must be operational in its application to US imports at the specified time. General or blanket tariffs which go into effect, but are then blocked, injuncted, repealed, or otherwise invalidated such that a blanket tariff rate of 10% or more is not being imposed on imports into the United States at this market’s resolution time will not count.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible information may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 20, 2026, 8:06 PM ET
Volume
$74,126End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 20, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general or blanket US tariff of 10% or more on imports into the United States is in effect on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A general or blanket tariff is a tariff policy that applies a baseline tariff rate of 10% or greater to imports broadly, rather than being limited to a narrow set of products or countries. A tariff that includes item-specific, country-specific, or other limited exceptions will still qualify, as long as a baseline policy of a 10% or greater tariff on imports into the United States is in effect at the specified time.
“In effect" means the tariff must be operational in its application to US imports at the specified time. General or blanket tariffs which go into effect, but are then blocked, injuncted, repealed, or otherwise invalidated such that a blanket tariff rate of 10% or more is not being imposed on imports into the United States at this market’s resolution time will not count.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible information may also be used.The Trump administration's February 20, 2026, proclamation under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 imposed a temporary 10% ad valorem tariff on nearly all imports, effective February 24, to address international payment imbalances following a Supreme Court ruling invalidating prior IEEPA-based levies. This blanket measure, authorized for 150 days without congressional approval, remains fully operational as of March 31, with U.S. Customs and Border Protection actively collecting duties, driving trader consensus to 99.1% "Yes." While plans for potential hikes to 15% have surfaced, no verified actions have altered the 10% rate; rare disruptions like an emergency injunction, congressional override, or executive reversal could theoretically intervene before resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general or blanket US tariff of 10% or more on imports into the United States is in effect on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A general or blanket tariff is a tariff policy that applies a baseline tariff rate of 10% or greater to imports broadly, rather than being limited to a narrow set of products or countries. A tariff that includes item-specific, country-specific, or other limited exceptions will still qualify, as long as a baseline policy of a 10% or greater tariff on imports into the United States is in effect at the specified time.
“In effect" means the tariff must be operational in its application to US imports at the specified time. General or blanket tariffs which go into effect, but are then blocked, injuncted, repealed, or otherwise invalidated such that a blanket tariff rate of 10% or more is not being imposed on imports into the United States at this market’s resolution time will not count.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible information may also be used.
A general or blanket tariff is a tariff policy that applies a baseline tariff rate of 10% or greater to imports broadly, rather than being limited to a narrow set of products or countries. A tariff that includes item-specific, country-specific, or other limited exceptions will still qualify, as long as a baseline policy of a 10% or greater tariff on imports into the United States is in effect at the specified time.
“In effect" means the tariff must be operational in its application to US imports at the specified time. General or blanket tariffs which go into effect, but are then blocked, injuncted, repealed, or otherwise invalidated such that a blanket tariff rate of 10% or more is not being imposed on imports into the United States at this market’s resolution time will not count.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible information may also be used.
Volume
$74,126End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 20, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
The Trump administration's February 20, 2026, proclamation under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 imposed a temporary 10% ad valorem tariff on nearly all imports, effective February 24, to address international payment imbalances following a Supreme Court ruling invalidating prior IEEPA-based levies. This blanket measure, authorized for 150 days without congressional approval, remains fully operational as of March 31, with U.S. Customs and Border Protection actively collecting duties, driving trader consensus to 99.1% "Yes." While plans for potential hikes to 15% have surfaced, no verified actions have altered the 10% rate; rare disruptions like an emergency injunction, congressional override, or executive reversal could theoretically intervene before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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