Incumbent Bryan Steil holds a clear edge in the Wisconsin 1st Congressional District race, backed by strong name recognition, a substantial fundraising lead exceeding $5 million, and the district’s modest Republican tilt reflected in recent presidential margins. Mitchell Berman, an emergency room nurse who won the Democratic primary in August, has gained visibility through the DCCC’s mid-September addition to its Red to Blue program, which directs extra resources to competitive seats. A late-summer internal poll showed the candidates nearly tied, underscoring the race’s sensitivity to turnout and national conditions ahead of the November 3 general election. Forecasters rate the contest Likely Republican, consistent with trader pricing that assigns Steil the higher probability while leaving room for shifts from late-cycle developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$10,749 Vol.
$10,749 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Bryan Steil (R)
67%
Mitchell Berman (D)
35%
$10,749 Vol.
$10,749 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Bryan Steil (R)
$5,554 Vol.
67%
Mitchell Berman (D)
$5,196 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Bryan Steil holds a clear edge in the Wisconsin 1st Congressional District race, backed by strong name recognition, a substantial fundraising lead exceeding $5 million, and the district’s modest Republican tilt reflected in recent presidential margins. Mitchell Berman, an emergency room nurse who won the Democratic primary in August, has gained visibility through the DCCC’s mid-September addition to its Red to Blue program, which directs extra resources to competitive seats. A late-summer internal poll showed the candidates nearly tied, underscoring the race’s sensitivity to turnout and national conditions ahead of the November 3 general election. Forecasters rate the contest Likely Republican, consistent with trader pricing that assigns Steil the higher probability while leaving room for shifts from late-cycle developments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
Volume
$10,749End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Bryan Steil holds a clear edge in the Wisconsin 1st Congressional District race, backed by strong name recognition, a substantial fundraising lead exceeding $5 million, and the district’s modest Republican tilt reflected in recent presidential margins. Mitchell Berman, an emergency room nurse who won the Democratic primary in August, has gained visibility through the DCCC’s mid-September addition to its Red to Blue program, which directs extra resources to competitive seats. A late-summer internal poll showed the candidates nearly tied, underscoring the race’s sensitivity to turnout and national conditions ahead of the November 3 general election. Forecasters rate the contest Likely Republican, consistent with trader pricing that assigns Steil the higher probability while leaving room for shifts from late-cycle developments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$10,749End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Bryan Steil holds a clear edge in the Wisconsin 1st Congressional District race, backed by strong name recognition, a substantial fundraising lead exceeding $5 million, and the district’s modest Republican tilt reflected in recent presidential margins. Mitchell Berman, an emergency room nurse who won the Democratic primary in August, has gained visibility through the DCCC’s mid-September addition to its Red to Blue program, which directs extra resources to competitive seats. A late-summer internal poll showed the candidates nearly tied, underscoring the race’s sensitivity to turnout and national conditions ahead of the November 3 general election. Forecasters rate the contest Likely Republican, consistent with trader pricing that assigns Steil the higher probability while leaving room for shifts from late-cycle developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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