Incumbent Bryan Steil maintains a clear edge in the Wisconsin 1st Congressional District race due to his established record since 2018, consistent reelection margins, and overwhelming fundraising lead exceeding $6 million in cash on hand. The district's long Republican tilt and ratings from outlets such as the Cook Political Report as "Likely Republican" reinforce trader consensus around his position. Mitchell Berman's August primary victory and mid-September inclusion in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's "Red to Blue" program have drawn national resources and attention to the challenger, an emergency room nurse emphasizing working-class issues. A Trump-aligned super PAC has also directed spending toward Steil's defense ahead of the November 3 general election, underscoring the competitive but structurally advantaged environment reflected in current market pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$10,749 Vol.
$10,749 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Bryan Steil (R)
67%
Mitchell Berman (D)
35%
$10,749 Vol.
$10,749 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Bryan Steil (R)
$5,554 Vol.
67%
Mitchell Berman (D)
$5,196 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Bryan Steil maintains a clear edge in the Wisconsin 1st Congressional District race due to his established record since 2018, consistent reelection margins, and overwhelming fundraising lead exceeding $6 million in cash on hand. The district's long Republican tilt and ratings from outlets such as the Cook Political Report as "Likely Republican" reinforce trader consensus around his position. Mitchell Berman's August primary victory and mid-September inclusion in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's "Red to Blue" program have drawn national resources and attention to the challenger, an emergency room nurse emphasizing working-class issues. A Trump-aligned super PAC has also directed spending toward Steil's defense ahead of the November 3 general election, underscoring the competitive but structurally advantaged environment reflected in current market pricing.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
Volume
$10,749End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Bryan Steil maintains a clear edge in the Wisconsin 1st Congressional District race due to his established record since 2018, consistent reelection margins, and overwhelming fundraising lead exceeding $6 million in cash on hand. The district's long Republican tilt and ratings from outlets such as the Cook Political Report as "Likely Republican" reinforce trader consensus around his position. Mitchell Berman's August primary victory and mid-September inclusion in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's "Red to Blue" program have drawn national resources and attention to the challenger, an emergency room nurse emphasizing working-class issues. A Trump-aligned super PAC has also directed spending toward Steil's defense ahead of the November 3 general election, underscoring the competitive but structurally advantaged environment reflected in current market pricing.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$10,749End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Incumbent Bryan Steil maintains a clear edge in the Wisconsin 1st Congressional District race due to his established record since 2018, consistent reelection margins, and overwhelming fundraising lead exceeding $6 million in cash on hand. The district's long Republican tilt and ratings from outlets such as the Cook Political Report as "Likely Republican" reinforce trader consensus around his position. Mitchell Berman's August primary victory and mid-September inclusion in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's "Red to Blue" program have drawn national resources and attention to the challenger, an emergency room nurse emphasizing working-class issues. A Trump-aligned super PAC has also directed spending toward Steil's defense ahead of the November 3 general election, underscoring the competitive but structurally advantaged environment reflected in current market pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions