Incumbent Bryan Steil maintains a strong position in Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District due to his established record, substantial fundraising edge exceeding $5 million, and the area’s consistent Republican lean in recent federal contests. Traders assign him a 66.5% implied probability as the November 3 general election approaches. Mitchell Berman secured the Democratic nomination in the August 11 primary and received a boost when the DCCC added him to its Red to Blue program in mid-September, signaling national party investment amid Democratic gains in recent state races and broader generic ballot trends. This targeting has narrowed the gap in some early polling and lifted Berman’s share to 34.5%, though Steil’s incumbency and resource advantages continue to anchor market consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$10,749 Vol.
$10,749 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Bryan Steil (R)
67%
Mitchell Berman (D)
35%
$10,749 Vol.
$10,749 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Bryan Steil (R)
$5,554 Vol.
67%
Mitchell Berman (D)
$5,196 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Bryan Steil maintains a strong position in Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District due to his established record, substantial fundraising edge exceeding $5 million, and the area’s consistent Republican lean in recent federal contests. Traders assign him a 66.5% implied probability as the November 3 general election approaches. Mitchell Berman secured the Democratic nomination in the August 11 primary and received a boost when the DCCC added him to its Red to Blue program in mid-September, signaling national party investment amid Democratic gains in recent state races and broader generic ballot trends. This targeting has narrowed the gap in some early polling and lifted Berman’s share to 34.5%, though Steil’s incumbency and resource advantages continue to anchor market consensus.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
Volume
$10,749End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Bryan Steil maintains a strong position in Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District due to his established record, substantial fundraising edge exceeding $5 million, and the area’s consistent Republican lean in recent federal contests. Traders assign him a 66.5% implied probability as the November 3 general election approaches. Mitchell Berman secured the Democratic nomination in the August 11 primary and received a boost when the DCCC added him to its Red to Blue program in mid-September, signaling national party investment amid Democratic gains in recent state races and broader generic ballot trends. This targeting has narrowed the gap in some early polling and lifted Berman’s share to 34.5%, though Steil’s incumbency and resource advantages continue to anchor market consensus.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$10,749End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Bryan Steil maintains a strong position in Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District due to his established record, substantial fundraising edge exceeding $5 million, and the area’s consistent Republican lean in recent federal contests. Traders assign him a 66.5% implied probability as the November 3 general election approaches. Mitchell Berman secured the Democratic nomination in the August 11 primary and received a boost when the DCCC added him to its Red to Blue program in mid-September, signaling national party investment amid Democratic gains in recent state races and broader generic ballot trends. This targeting has narrowed the gap in some early polling and lifted Berman’s share to 34.5%, though Steil’s incumbency and resource advantages continue to anchor market consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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