Name: Who will Trump pardon in 2025?
Start: 2025-04-17T22:26:38.584911Z
End: 2025-12-31T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Steve Bannon

Diddy

Edward Snowden

Roger Stone

Changpeng Zhao

Roger Ver

Elon Musk

Matt Gaetz

Bob Menendez

Eric Adams

Julian Assange

Hunter Biden

Daniel Penny

Joe Exotic

Sam Bankman-Fried

Himself

Young Thug

Rudy Giuliani

Derek Chauvin

George Santos

Do Kwon

Antoine Massey

Elizabeth Holmes

Ghislaine Maxwell

Ryan Salame

Who will Trump pardon in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump pardon Roger Ver before 2027?

This market will resolve to "No" if any of the listed people receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

The listed individuals are: 
- Diddy
- Ghislaine Maxwell
- Sam Bankman-Fried
- Elizabeth Holmes
- Derek Chauvin

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Nothing Ever Happens: Trump Pardon Edition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Changpeng Zhao and Roger Ver receive a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump Crypto Pardon Parlay

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump for any charges by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump pardon Maduro by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump issues a presidential veto of any bill by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be official congressional records and a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump veto a bill in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

Trump impeached by end of 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.

This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.

Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump and/or Melania Trump announce their intention to divorce between December 31, 2024 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by December 31, 2025 of their intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market.

The resolution source will be statements from Donald Trump and/or Melania Trump , and their representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.

Trump divorce in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially appoints, or announces the appointment of a special prosecutor, special counsel, or other independent prosecutor to investigate matters related to Jeffrey Epstein by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.  Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
 
To qualify, the appointee must be explicitly tasked with investigating the Epstein case. A public statement from Trump, the White House, or the Department of Justice confirming the appointment will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution regardless of when the appointment goes into effect. 

General statements of intent without a named appointee will not qualify. 

The primary resolution source will be official announcements from the Trump administration or a consensus of credible reporting.

Trump appoints special prosecutor for Epstein case in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump issues a presidential veto, by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET, of any bill or resolution that explicitly mandates, compels, or formally calls for the public release of documents related to Jeffrey Epstein. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be official congressional records and a consensus of credible reporting.

Trump vetoes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk serves any time in custody in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between June 5, and  December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump jail Elon Musk?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump visit China by April 30?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits North Korea between August 4 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell publicly accuses Donald Trump of criminal wrongdoing between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, she must explicitly state that Trump committed one or more specific crimes, or clearly refer to him as a criminal and Trump must be named directly.

The accusation must be made Maxwell and made public within the specified date range. 

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Ghislaine Maxwell accuses Trump of being a criminal?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if evidence is made public confirming that Donald Trump has visited visited Little Saint James by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes but is not limited to flight logs, photographs, videos, court records, or sworn testimony that clearly place Trump on the island.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Evidence Trump went to Epstein's Island made public in 2025?

In November 2025, Donald Trump indicated his intent to urge the United States Justice Department to investigate alleged ties between Jeffrey Epstein and Bill Clinton. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-he-will-ask-justice-department-probe-epstein-ties-with-bill-clinton-2025-11-14/)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bill Clinton is indicted on federal charges or otherwise formally charged with any federal crime by the United States of America between November 14, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Bill Clinton be federally indicted by December 31?

Donald Trump is set to make an address on December 17, 2025 at 9PM ET (https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115730644486071082).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about Donald Trump's scheduled address on December 17, 2025. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by December 17, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "Inflation" while addressing the nation on December 17?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Evidence Trump went to Epstein's Island made public
- Trump out as President
- Trump impeached
- Any Trump cabinet member out

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Trump-Epstein+Parlay.pdf

Trump-Epstein Parlay

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a bill into law or performs any executive action changing US tax law to eliminate the federal tax exemption on interest from municipal bonds by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the exemption is eliminated only for specific types or classes of municipal bonds (e.g., only newly issued bonds, only bonds from certain states or localities, or only bonds purchased after a certain date), it will still count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market.

If the bill is signed into law, or executive action is instituted before the resolution date, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of when it takes effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump remove municipal bond tax exemption in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) ceases operations entirely, including the termination of all federal programs and activities managed by the agency, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If NASA is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, it will count as a "Yes" resolution.

If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump end NASA in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump, as President of the United States, signs into law a bill that lowers the maximum individual tax rate below 37% at any point between January 19 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Note that the cut does not need to go into effect before the resolution date - it just needs to be signed into law by then.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.



Will Trump cut taxes on high earners in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong Un all meet with Donald Trump between October 24, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Trump meets Xi, Putin, and Kim by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Former Chief Medical Advisor to the President Anthony Fauci serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between March 17 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump jail Fauci?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) buys any amount of $TRUMP (https://solscan.io/token/6p6xgHyF7AeE6TZkSmFsko444wqoP15icUSqi2jfGiPN), either directly or through a subsidiary, between July 21, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be announcements through official information from TMTG, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Who will Trump pardon in 2025?

Steve Bannon
$162,374 Vol.
7%
0123456789
%

Young Thug
$29,701 Vol.
2%

Bob Menendez
$152,860 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

Derek Chauvin
$248,693 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

Julian Assange
$41,220 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

Roger Stone
$32,037 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

Ghislaine Maxwell
$763,538 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

Roger Ver
$785,845 Vol.
1%

Do Kwon
$107,205 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

Eric Adams
$70,303 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

Sam Bankman-Fried
$1,628,589 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

Elizabeth Holmes
$161,449 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

Joe Exotic
$71,598 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

Diddy
$768,003 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

Ryan Salame
$81,848 Vol.
1%

Antoine Massey
$72,666 Vol.
1%

Edward Snowden
$281,492 Vol.
1%

Daniel Penny
$108,406 Vol.
1%

Matt Gaetz
$38,062 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

Elon Musk
$310,930 Vol.
1%

Himself
$163,917 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Hunter Biden
$428,387 Vol.
<1%

Market Context

Who will Trump pardon in 2025?

Rules

Who will Trump pardon in 2025?

Market Context

Who will Trump pardon in 2025?

About

Related

Who will Trump pardon in 2025?

Steve Bannon$162,374 Vol.7%0123456789%buy Yes7.7¢buy No93.4¢

Young Thug$29,701 Vol.2%buy Yes3.4¢buy No99.1¢

Bob Menendez$152,860 Vol.2%0123456789%buy Yes1.6¢buy No98.5¢

Derek Chauvin$248,693 Vol.2%0123456789%buy Yes1.8¢buy No98.7¢

Julian Assange$41,220 Vol.2%0123456789%buy Yes1.9¢buy No98.9¢

Roger Stone$32,037 Vol.1%0123456789%buy Yes1.7¢buy No99.1¢

Ghislaine Maxwell$763,538 Vol.1%0123456789%buy Yes1.4¢buy No98.8¢

Roger Ver$785,845 Vol.1%buy Yes1.4¢buy No98.9¢

Do Kwon$107,205 Vol.1%0123456789%buy Yes1.6¢buy No99.1¢

Eric Adams$70,303 Vol.1%0123456789%buy Yes1.3¢buy No99.1¢

Sam Bankman-Fried$1,628,589 Vol.1%0123456789%buy Yes1.3¢buy No99.3¢

Elizabeth Holmes$161,449 Vol.1%0123456789%buy Yes1.1¢buy No99.2¢

Joe Exotic$71,598 Vol.1%0123456789%buy Yes0.9¢buy No99.2¢

Diddy$768,003 Vol.1%0123456789%buy Yes1.0¢buy No99.4¢

Ryan Salame$81,848 Vol.1%buy Yes0.9¢buy No99.3¢

Antoine Massey$72,666 Vol.1%buy Yes0.9¢buy No99.4¢

Edward Snowden$281,492 Vol.1%buy Yes0.8¢buy No99.4¢

Daniel Penny$108,406 Vol.1%buy Yes0.8¢buy No99.5¢

Matt Gaetz$38,062 Vol.1%0123456789%buy Yes0.8¢buy No99.6¢

Elon Musk$310,930 Vol.1%buy Yes0.7¢buy No99.6¢

Himself$163,917 Vol.<1%0123456789%buy Yes0.4¢buy No99.8¢

Hunter Biden$428,387 Vol.<1%buy Yes0.3¢buy No99.8¢

Market Context

Who will Trump pardon in 2025?

Rules

Who will Trump pardon in 2025?

Market Context

Who will Trump pardon in 2025?

About

Related

Steve Bannon
$162,374 Vol.
7%
0123456789
%

Young Thug
$29,701 Vol.
2%

Bob Menendez
$152,860 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

Derek Chauvin
$248,693 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

Julian Assange
$41,220 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

Roger Stone
$32,037 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

Ghislaine Maxwell
$763,538 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

Roger Ver
$785,845 Vol.
1%

Do Kwon
$107,205 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

Eric Adams
$70,303 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

Sam Bankman-Fried
$1,628,589 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

Elizabeth Holmes
$161,449 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

Joe Exotic
$71,598 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

Diddy
$768,003 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

Ryan Salame
$81,848 Vol.
1%

Antoine Massey
$72,666 Vol.
1%

Edward Snowden
$281,492 Vol.
1%

Daniel Penny
$108,406 Vol.
1%

Matt Gaetz
$38,062 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

Elon Musk
$310,930 Vol.
1%

Himself
$163,917 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Hunter Biden
$428,387 Vol.
<1%