Which country will Trump lower tariffs on first?
$473,938 Vol.
India 100.0%
Israel <1%
Argentina <1%
None by July 31 <1%
OUTCOMERESULT
Israel
$72,035 Vol.
No
Israel
$72,035 Vol.
No
Argentina
$50,015 Vol.
No
Argentina
$50,015 Vol.
No
None by July 31
$32,286 Vol.
No
None by July 31
$32,286 Vol.
No
India
$46,561 Vol.
Yes
India
$46,561 Vol.
Yes
China
$36,505 Vol.
No
China
$36,505 Vol.
No
Japan
$96,594 Vol.
No
Japan
$96,594 Vol.
No
South Korea
$54,950 Vol.
No
South Korea
$54,950 Vol.
No
Canada
$29,706 Vol.
No
Canada
$29,706 Vol.
No
Mexico
$23,724 Vol.
No
Mexico
$23,724 Vol.
No
Vietnam
$31,563 Vol.
No
Vietnam
$31,563 Vol.
No
Rules
This market will resolve according to the first listed country which Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action that lowers, pauses, delays, or removes any tariffs on imports on.
If Trump does not lower tariffs on any listed country by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "None by July 31".
Only listed countries will qualify. If Trump lowers tariffs on multiple listed countries simultaneously, this market will resolve in favor of whichever country’s listed names comes first alphabetically.
Actions that lower, pause, delay, or remove any tariffs on imports from the listed country will qualify, including changes to the reciprocal tariff, item specific tariffs, or any other existing or new tariffs specifically targeting imports from the listed country.
Only the removal of tariffs specifically targeting the listed country will qualify. For example, the removal of the 10% general tariff on all imports into the U.S., or a tariff on specific provinces provinces or entities, will not count toward this market’s resolution.
Any action officially enacted within the market’s time frame will qualify, regardless of when the change goes into effect.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Trump does not lower tariffs on any listed country by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "None by July 31".
Only listed countries will qualify. If Trump lowers tariffs on multiple listed countries simultaneously, this market will resolve in favor of whichever country’s listed names comes first alphabetically.
Actions that lower, pause, delay, or remove any tariffs on imports from the listed country will qualify, including changes to the reciprocal tariff, item specific tariffs, or any other existing or new tariffs specifically targeting imports from the listed country.
Only the removal of tariffs specifically targeting the listed country will qualify. For example, the removal of the 10% general tariff on all imports into the U.S., or a tariff on specific provinces provinces or entities, will not count toward this market’s resolution.
Any action officially enacted within the market’s time frame will qualify, regardless of when the change goes into effect.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Created At: Apr 4, 2025, 10:30 PM UTC
Volume
$473,938End Date
Jul 31, 2025Created At
Apr 4, 2025, 10:30 PM UTCResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
$473,938 Vol.
Which country will Trump lower tariffs on first?
India 100.0%
Israel <1%
Argentina <1%
None by July 31 <1%
Israel
$72,035 Vol.
No
Argentina
$50,015 Vol.
No
None by July 31
$32,286 Vol.
No
India
$46,561 Vol.
Yes
China
$36,505 Vol.
No
Japan
$96,594 Vol.
No
South Korea
$54,950 Vol.
No
Canada
$29,706 Vol.
No
Mexico
$23,724 Vol.
No
Vietnam
$31,563 Vol.
No
About
Volume
$473,938End Date
Jul 31, 2025Created At
Apr 4, 2025, 10:30 PM UTCResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.



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