Name: What will U.S. inflation be from April to May 2023?
Start: 2021-01-01T17:00:00Z
End: 2023-06-13T00:00:00Z

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This is a market group over US inflation from April to May 2023.


This is a market on a month-to-month inflation, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U), from April to May 2023. Inflation is measured by a change in Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) on a seasonally adjusted basis, reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the index increased by more than -0.1 percent (on a seasonally adjusted basis) from April to May 2023 and “No“ otherwise.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS May 2023 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 13, 2023, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

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The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports seasonally-adjusted month-to-month inflation to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market (e.g. if seasonally adjusted month-to-month CPI-U is 0.0%, the market will resolve to “Yes”, if it is -0.1%, this market will resolve to “No”).

More than -0.1%

This is a market on a month-to-month inflation, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U), from April to May 2023. Inflation is measured by a change in Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) on a seasonally adjusted basis, reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the index increased by more than 0.0 percent (on a seasonally adjusted basis) from April to May 2023 and “No“ otherwise.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS May 2023 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 13, 2023, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

----

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports seasonally-adjusted month-to-month inflation to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market (e.g. if seasonally adjusted month-to-month CPI-U is 0.1%, the market will resolve to “Yes”, if it is 0.0%, this market will resolve to “No”).

More than 0.0%

This is a market on a month-to-month inflation, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U), from April to May 2023. Inflation is measured by a change in Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) on a seasonally adjusted basis, reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the index increased by more than 0.2 percent (on a seasonally adjusted basis) from April to May 2023 and “No“ otherwise.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS May 2023 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 13, 2023, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

----

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports seasonally-adjusted month-to-month inflation to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market (e.g. if seasonally adjusted month-to-month CPI-U is 0.3%, the market will resolve to “Yes”, if it is 0.2%, this market will resolve to “No”).

More than 0.2%

This is a market on a month-to-month inflation, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U), from April to May 2023. Inflation is measured by a change in Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) on a seasonally adjusted basis, reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the index increased by more than 0.1 percent (on a seasonally adjusted basis) from April to May 2023 and “No“ otherwise.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS May 2023 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 13, 2023, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

----

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports seasonally-adjusted month-to-month inflation to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market (e.g. if seasonally adjusted month-to-month CPI-U is 0.2%, the market will resolve to “Yes”, if it is 0.1%, this market will resolve to “No”).

More than 0.1%

What will U.S. inflation be from April to May 2023?

This is a market group on a month-to-month inflation, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U), from October to November 2022. Inflation is measured by a change in Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) on a seasonally adjusted basis, reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS November 2022 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on December 13, 2022, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

What will U.S. inflation be from October to November 2022?

This is a market group on a month-to-month inflation, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U), from September to October 2022. Inflation is measured by a change in Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) on a seasonally adjusted basis, reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS October 2022 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on November 10, 2022, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

What will U.S. inflation be from September to October 2022?

This is a market group on a month-to-month inflation, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U), from August to September 2022.

Inflation is measured by a change in Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) on a seasonally adjusted basis, reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS September 2022 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 13, 2022, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

What will U.S. inflation be from August to September 2022?

This is a market group on a month-to-month inflation, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U), from November to December 2022. Inflation is measured by a change in Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) on a seasonally adjusted basis, reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS December 2022 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2023, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

What will U.S. inflation be from November to December 2022?

This is a market group on a month-to-month inflation, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U), from July to August 2022.

Inflation is measured by a change in Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) on a seasonally adjusted basis, reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS August 2022 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 13, 2022, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

What will U.S. inflation be from July to August 2022?

This is a market group over what US inflation will be according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) from December 2022 through January 2023.

What will US inflation be from December 2022 to January 2023?

This is a market group over US inflation from January to February 2023.

What will U.S. inflation be from January to February 2023?

What will U.S. inflation be from February to March 2023?

This is a market on a month-to-month inflation, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U), from January to February 2022.

The inflation is measured by a change in Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) on a seasonally adjusted basis, reported by U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the index increased by 0.7 percent or more from January 2022 to February 2022 and "No" otherwise.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS February 2022 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled for release on March 10, 2022, 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

 -------------------------

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.

Note that the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports seasonally-adjusted month-to-month inflation to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.7%, 0.6%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market (e.g. if seasonally adjusted month-to-month CPI-U is 0.3%, the market will resolve to “No”, if it is 0.8%, this market will resolve to “Yes”).

Will the U.S. inflation be 0.7% or more from January to February 2022?

This is a market on a month-to-month inflation, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U), from March to April 2022.

Inflation is measured by a change in Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) on a seasonally adjusted basis, reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

What will the U.S. inflation be from March to April 2022?

This is a market on a month-to-month inflation, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U), from May to June 2022.

Inflation is measured by a change in Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) on a seasonally adjusted basis, reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the index increased by more than 0.9 percent (on a seasonally adjusted basis) from May 2022 to June 2022 and "No" otherwise.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS June 2022 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 13, 2022, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

 -------------------------

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.

Note that the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports seasonally-adjusted month-to-month inflation to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.7%, 0.6%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market (e.g. if seasonally adjusted month-to-month CPI-U is 0.9%, the market will resolve to “No”, if it is 1.0%, this market will resolve to “Yes”).

Will U.S. inflation be more than 0.9% from May to June 2022?

This is a market on an annual inflation in the USA, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U), for the 12 months ending January 2022. 

What will the U.S. annual inflation be on January 2022?

This is a market on a month-to-month inflation, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U), from April to May 2022.

Inflation is measured by a change in Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) on a seasonally adjusted basis, reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the index increased by more than 0.7 percent (on a seasonally adjusted basis) from April 2022 to May 2022 and "No" otherwise.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS May 2022 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2022, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

 -------------------------

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.

Note that the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports seasonally-adjusted month-to-month inflation to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.7%, 0.6%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market (e.g. if seasonally adjusted month-to-month CPI-U is 0.7%, the market will resolve to “No”, if it is 0.8%, this market will resolve to “Yes”).

Will U.S. inflation be more than 0.7% from April to May 2022?

This is a market on a month-to-month inflation, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U), from April to May 2022.

Inflation is measured by a change in Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) on a seasonally adjusted basis, reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the index increased by more than 0.5 percent (on a seasonally adjusted basis) from April 2022 to May 2022 and "No" otherwise.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS May 2022 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2022, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

 -------------------------

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.

Note that the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports seasonally-adjusted month-to-month inflation to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.7%, 0.6%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market (e.g. if seasonally adjusted month-to-month CPI-U is 0.5%, the market will resolve to “No”, if it is 0.6%, this market will resolve to “Yes”).

Will U.S. inflation be more than 0.5% from April to May 2022?

This is a market group on a month-to-month inflation, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U), from June to July 2022.

Inflation is measured by a change in Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) on a seasonally adjusted basis, reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS July 2022 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 10, 2022, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.


What will U.S. inflation be from June to July 2022?

This is a market group over US inflation from March to April 2023.


What will U.S. inflation be from March to April 2023?

This is a market group over US inflation from May to June 2023.

What will U.S. inflation be from May to June 2023?

What will U.S. inflation be from June to July?

What will U.S. inflation be from August to September?

This is a market about inflation over the 12 month period ending March 2025 before seasonal adjustment as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This market will resolve to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by over the 12 month period ending in March 2025 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2025 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2025, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

March Inflation - Annual

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1 percent or more over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2025 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2025 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2025 report is issued. Once the December 2025 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2025 is not issued by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions prove true at any point in 2025:

1) The "US recession in 2025?" market resolves to "Yes" (https://polymarket.com/event/us-recession-in-2025).

2) The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by 5.0% or more over the 12 month period ending in any month between April 2025 and December 2025 according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm#current)

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will not resolve until all relevant figures are reported for the period of time encompassing December 2025.

The resolution sources for this market will be the NBER, BEA (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product), and BLS (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm#current), as well as the "US recession in 2025?" market on Polymarket.

US stagflation in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026?

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2025 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.

This market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by over the 12-month period ending December 2025 (% change) according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.

The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2025 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 19, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

You can find this report by clicking on the “Consumer Price Index” option under the "Key Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting "Table 1". The relevant figure can be found under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665

Will Canada's annual inflation increase by 2.3% in December?

The IPCA (t. Broad National Consumer Price Index) is the official inflation rate measure used by the Brazilian government, tracked by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The IPCA reflects the cost of living for households across urban areas in Brazil, measuring changes in prices for a diverse set of goods and services.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 12-month IPCA for December 2025 is below 5.50%. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve according to IBGE's (https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/indicators#ipca) public release of 12 month IPCA figure for December 2025, expected in January 2026. If the publication of this figure is delayed beyond February 28, 2026 ET, this market will resolve according to the last published figure.

Because this market's resolution source reports inflation over 12 month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.56%), this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Brazil’s 12-month inflation below 5.50% for December 2025?

This is a market about Argentinian inflation over the 12-month period ending December 2025, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.

This market will resolve according to the percentage increase in Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2025 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report.

The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2025 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), scheduled to be released in January 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If the report for December 2025 is not released by January 31, 2026, this market will resolve according to the last figure published.

You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Will annual inflation increase by between 30% and 32.9% in December?

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:

1.  The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point in 2025, with the announcement made by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

2.  The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q2 2025 was negative, and the Q1 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2025 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2025 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2025 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.

The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

US recession in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Bureau of Labor Statistics fails to release any monthly report on the Consumer Price Index by 11:59PM ET on the scheduled release date between December 1, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If an announcement is made by the White House or the BLS that the monthly CPI release will be delayed or cancelled altogether, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".

The resolution source for this market will be information from the BLS or a consensus of credible reporting. 

BLS delays another CPI release before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the price of the COMEX Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is $3,200.00 per troy ounce or greater as of the final market close price in 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be COMEX trading data for the Gold Continuous Contract (https://www.google.com/finance/quote/GCW00:COMEX).

Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025?

The U.S. government collected $82.2b in customs duties in FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2024/notes-to-the-financial-statements19.pdf).

This market will resolve according to the value of customs duties collected in FY 2025 according to the Financial Report of the United States Government published by the Treasury Department for FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/financial-report/)

If the Treasury Department does not publish relevant data for FY 2025 by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. 

The resolution source will be the Treasury Department.

Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025?

This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentinian, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.

This market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) increased in December 2025 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.

The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2025 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on January 13, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. 

You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % mensual Total nacional”.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Will monthly inflation be between 2.4% and 2.6% in December?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Fed rate hike in 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:

1.  The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 

2.  The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.

The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

US recession by end of 2026?

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.

If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?

This market will resolve based on federal government current expenditures as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).

This market will resolve to the amount federal government current expenditures decrease by between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report. 

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The difference will be calculated as the Q4 2024 value minus the Q4 2025 value. 

The figures will be based on the initial Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 values as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank. Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used. 

The figures will be based on the Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 values as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank as soon as the data for Q4 2025 becomes available, regardless of whether later revisions are made.

This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).

Will Elon and DOGE cut less than $50b in federal spending in 2025?

This is a market on how whether 'Lilo & Stitch' (2025) will have the third-highest domestic gross on its opening weekend compared to all other movies released in 2025. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on https://www.the-numbers.com will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if 'Lilo & Stitch' (2025) grosses the third-highest on its 3-day domestic opening weekend compared to any other movie in 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.

If three other movies' opening weekend box office performances surpass that of 'Lilo & Stitch' (2025) after the respective numbers are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will rank higher.

If there is no final data available by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Will 'Lilo & Stitch' have the third best domestic opening weekend in 2025?

The CDC reported a general fertility rate of 53.7 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q2 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm). 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q3 2025 exceeds 53.7, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q3 2025 by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q3 2025, regardless of any subsequent revisions.

The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.

US fertility rate up in Q3 2025?

This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for release on January 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Will Mexico GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 0.5% and 1.0%?

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2025, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2025, scheduled for release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on January 30, 2026, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.

Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2025, which provides the initial full-year 2025 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.

Negative GDP growth in 2025?

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP 'Advance Estimate' for Q3 2025, scheduled for release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on October 30, 2025, reports a growth rate of -5% or lower. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.

Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.

5% GDP contraction in Q3 2025?  

This market will resolve based on the seasonally adjusted number of federal employees, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) under the "All Employees, Federal" series (CES9091000001), displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001)

This market will resolve according to the decrease in the seasonally adjusted number of federal employees between the December 2024 report and the December 2025 report.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The difference will be calculated as the December 2024 value minus the December 2025 value.

The December 2024 figure will be based on the initial December 2024 BLS Employment Situation report scheduled for release on January 3, 2025, and the initial December 2025 figure will be based on the report scheduled for release on January 9, 2026. Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used.

The resolution source will be the BLS Employment Situation data, specifically the series CES9091000001, available at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001 or the official BLS website.


Will Elon and DOGE cut more than 200k employees in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

What will U.S. inflation be from April to May 2023?

More than -0.1%
$310 Vol.
Yes

More than 0.0%
$1,264 Vol.
Yes

More than 0.1%
$830 Vol.
No

More than 0.2%
$842 Vol.
No

Market Context

What will U.S. inflation be from April to May 2023?

Rules

What will U.S. inflation be from April to May 2023?

Market Context

What will U.S. inflation be from April to May 2023?

About

Related

What will U.S. inflation be from April to May 2023?

More than -0.1%$310 Vol.Yescircle check

More than 0.0%$1,264 Vol.Yescircle check

More than 0.1%$830 Vol.Nocircle xmark

More than 0.2%$842 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Market Context

What will U.S. inflation be from April to May 2023?

Rules

What will U.S. inflation be from April to May 2023?

Market Context

What will U.S. inflation be from April to May 2023?

About

Related

More than -0.1%
$310 Vol.
Yes

More than 0.0%
$1,264 Vol.
Yes

More than 0.1%
$830 Vol.
No

More than 0.2%
$842 Vol.
No