Name: What will Trump say in first speech after AP calls the election?
Start: 2024-11-05T18:23:15.800551Z
End: 2024-11-30T12:00:00Z

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This is a market on predicting the content of Trump's speech following the announcement of election results.

This market refers to the first speech given by Donald Trump after the Associated Press (AP) has declared a winner for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. If the AP declares a winner while Donald Trump has already begun delivering a speech, the entirety of the speech will be considered for this market including terms mentioned prior to the AP’s announcement.

A speech is defined as any statement delivered on camera which is three minutes (180 seconds) or greater in length. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Kamala" during their speech. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Kamala" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the US vice president Kamala Harris.

If the AP does not declare a winner by November 30, 2024 ET, or Donald Trump does not give a speech between the AP declaring a winner and November 30, 2024 ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Kamala 

This market refers to the first speech given by Donald Trump after the Associated Press (AP) has declared a winner for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. If the AP declares a winner while Donald Trump has already begun delivering a speech, the entirety of the speech will be considered for this market including terms mentioned prior to the AP’s announcement.

A speech is defined as any statement delivered on camera which is three minutes (180 seconds) or greater in length. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Rig" or "Rigged" during their speech. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "rig" or "rigged" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to managing or conducting (something) fraudulently so as to produce a result or situation that is advantageous to a particular person.

If the AP does not declare a winner by November 30, 2024 ET, or Donald Trump does not give a speech between the AP declaring a winner and November 30, 2024 ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Rig/Rigged

This market refers to the first speech given by Donald Trump after the Associated Press (AP) has declared a winner for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. If the AP declares a winner while Donald Trump has already begun delivering a speech, the entirety of the speech will be considered for this market including terms mentioned prior to the AP’s announcement.

A speech is defined as any statement delivered on camera which is three minutes (180 seconds) or greater in length. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "fraud" during their speech. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "fraud" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to wrongful or criminal deception.

If the AP does not declare a winner by November 30, 2024 ET, or Donald Trump does not give a speech between the AP declaring a winner and November 30, 2024 ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Fraud

This market refers to the first speech given by Donald Trump after the Associated Press (AP) has declared a winner for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. If the AP declares a winner while Donald Trump has already begun delivering a speech, the entirety of the speech will be considered for this market including terms mentioned prior to the AP’s announcement.

A speech is defined as any statement delivered on camera which is three minutes (180 seconds) or greater in length. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "god" during their speech. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "god" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a superhuman being or spirit worshiped as having power over nature or human fortunes; a deity.

If the AP does not declare a winner by November 30, 2024 ET, or Donald Trump does not give a speech between the AP declaring a winner and November 30, 2024 ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

This market refers to the first speech given by Donald Trump after the Associated Press (AP) has declared a winner for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. If the AP declares a winner while Donald Trump has already begun delivering a speech, the entirety of the speech will be considered for this market including terms mentioned prior to the AP’s announcement.

A speech is defined as any statement delivered on camera which is three minutes (180 seconds) or greater in length. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "MAGA" or "make America great again" during their speech. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "MAGA" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to making America great again (e.g. "MAGA-themed" counts).

If the AP does not declare a winner by November 30, 2024 ET, or Donald Trump does not give a speech between the AP declaring a winner and November 30, 2024 ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

MAGA

This market refers to the first speech given by Donald Trump after the Associated Press (AP) has declared a winner for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. If the AP declares a winner while Donald Trump has already begun delivering a speech, the entirety of the speech will be considered for this market including terms mentioned prior to the AP’s announcement.

A speech is defined as any statement delivered on camera which is three minutes (180 seconds) or greater in length. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "border" during their speech. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "border" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a political boundary between nations.

If the AP does not declare a winner by November 30, 2024 ET, or Donald Trump does not give a speech between the AP declaring a winner and November 30, 2024 ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Border

This market refers to the first speech given by Donald Trump after the Associated Press (AP) has declared a winner for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. If the AP declares a winner while Donald Trump has already begun delivering a speech, the entirety of the speech will be considered for this market including terms mentioned prior to the AP’s announcement.

A speech is defined as any statement delivered on camera which is three minutes (180 seconds) or greater in length. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during their speech. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "crypto" or "Bitcoin" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to decentralized cryptocurrency (e.g. "cryptocurrency-related" counts).

If the AP does not declare a winner by November 30, 2024 ET, or Donald Trump does not give a speech between the AP declaring a winner and November 30, 2024 ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Crypto/Bitcoin

This market refers to the first speech given by Donald Trump after the Associated Press (AP) has declared a winner for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. If the AP declares a winner while Donald Trump has already begun delivering a speech, the entirety of the speech will be considered for this market including terms mentioned prior to the AP’s announcement.

A speech is defined as any statement delivered on camera which is three minutes (180 seconds) or greater in length. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Elon" during their speech. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Elon" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the person Elon Musk.

If the AP does not declare a winner by November 30, 2024 ET, or Donald Trump does not give a speech between the AP declaring a winner and November 30, 2024 ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Elon

This market refers to the first speech given by Donald Trump after the Associated Press (AP) has declared a winner for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. If the AP declares a winner while Donald Trump has already begun delivering a speech, the entirety of the speech will be considered for this market including terms mentioned prior to the AP’s announcement.

A speech is defined as any statement delivered on camera which is three minutes (180 seconds) or greater in length. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Illegal" during their speech. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Illegal" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to something is not authorized by law or is against the rules.

If the AP does not declare a winner by November 30, 2024 ET, or Donald Trump does not give a speech between the AP declaring a winner and November 30, 2024 ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Illegal

This market refers to the first speech given by Donald Trump after the Associated Press (AP) has declared a winner for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. If the AP declares a winner while Donald Trump has already begun delivering a speech, the entirety of the speech will be considered for this market including terms mentioned prior to the AP’s announcement.

A speech is defined as any statement delivered on camera which is three minutes (180 seconds) or greater in length. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Pennsylvania" during their speech. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Pennsylvania" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the U.S. state.

If the AP does not declare a winner by November 30, 2024 ET, or Donald Trump does not give a speech between the AP declaring a winner and November 30, 2024 ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Pennsylvania

This market refers to the first speech given by Donald Trump after the Associated Press (AP) has declared a winner for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. If the AP declares a winner while Donald Trump has already begun delivering a speech, the entirety of the speech will be considered for this market including terms mentioned prior to the AP’s announcement.

A speech is defined as any statement delivered on camera which is three minutes (180 seconds) or greater in length. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Steal", "Stealing", "Stole", or "Stolen" during their speech. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Steal", "Stealing", "Stole", or "Stolen" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to to take or appropriate without right.

If the AP does not declare a winner by November 30, 2024 ET, or Donald Trump does not give a speech between the AP declaring a winner and November 30, 2024 ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Steal/Stole

This market refers to the first speech given by Donald Trump after the Associated Press (AP) has declared a winner for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. If the AP declares a winner while Donald Trump has already begun delivering a speech, the entirety of the speech will be considered for this market including terms mentioned prior to the AP’s announcement.

A speech is defined as any statement delivered on camera which is three minutes (180 seconds) or greater in length. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "We Won " during their speech. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If the AP does not declare a winner by November 30, 2024 ET, or Donald Trump does not give a speech between the AP declaring a winner and November 30, 2024 ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

We Won 

This market refers to the first speech given by Donald Trump after the Associated Press (AP) has declared a winner for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. If the AP declares a winner while Donald Trump has already begun delivering a speech, the entirety of the speech will be considered for this market including terms mentioned prior to the AP’s announcement.

A speech is defined as any statement delivered on camera which is three minutes (180 seconds) or greater in length. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Mail-in" during their speech. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If the AP does not declare a winner by November 30, 2024 ET, or Donald Trump does not give a speech between the AP declaring a winner and November 30, 2024 ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Mail-in

This market refers to the first speech given by Donald Trump after the Associated Press (AP) has declared a winner for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. If the AP declares a winner while Donald Trump has already begun delivering a speech, the entirety of the speech will be considered for this market including terms mentioned prior to the AP’s announcement.

A speech is defined as any statement delivered on camera which is three minutes (180 seconds) or greater in length. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Victory" 3 or more times during their speech. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Victory" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the act of defeating an opponent.

If the AP does not declare a winner by November 30, 2024 ET, or Donald Trump does not give a speech between the AP declaring a winner and November 30, 2024 ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Victory 3+ times

This market refers to the first speech given by Donald Trump after the Associated Press (AP) has declared a winner for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. If the AP declares a winner while Donald Trump has already begun delivering a speech, the entirety of the speech will be considered for this market including terms mentioned prior to the AP’s announcement.

A speech is defined as any statement delivered on camera which is three minutes (180 seconds) or greater in length. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "America" 5 or more times during their speech. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "America" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the United States.

If the AP does not declare a winner by November 30, 2024 ET, or Donald Trump does not give a speech between the AP declaring a winner and November 30, 2024 ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

America 5+ times

What will Trump say in first speech after AP calls the election?

This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.

If Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.

Will Trump endorse Andy Barr for KY-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump announces that he is running for a third term as US President by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Trump must definitively state his intent to run (e.g., "I am running for a third term" or equivalent unambiguous language); vague comments, speculative or contingent remarks or jokes will not suffice. 

Past statements such his March 30 NBC phone interview where he stated "There are methods which you could do it, as you know... A lot of people want me to do it." or his November 13, 2024, where he stated "I suspect I won’t be running again unless you say, ‘He’s so good we’ve got to figure something else out.’" would NOT qualify. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Donald Trump (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trump announce run for 3rd term?

Donald Trump is set to participate in Service Member Calls on December 24, 2025 at 5:30 PM ET (https://www.forth.news/whpool/CWQagQzJdHBJHz5KMAd8r).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about the scheduled "THE PRESIDENT participates in Service Member Calls" event on December 24, 2025 at 5:30PM ET. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by December 24, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "Space Force" during Christmas Eve service member calls?

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses, or announces that he will vote for, any candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

Will Trump endorse any candidate for President before 2027?

Trump's Treasury Secretary pick Scott Bessent has floated the idea of Trump naming a successor to Jerome Powell to serve as a "shadow chair", prior to the end of Powell's term, scheduled for May 2026. (see: https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/business/money-report/fed-chair-jerome-powell-can-serve-remainder-of-term-says-trumps-treasury-pick-bessent/3788991/).

This market will resolve to according the individual Donald Trump announces as his pick for the next Federal Reserve Chair. If Donald Trump does not announce his pick for the next Federal Reserve Chair by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No announcement by December 31".  

The resolution source for this market will be official information form Donald Trump or one of his official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Evidence Trump went to Epstein's Island made public
- Trump out as President
- Trump impeached
- Any Trump cabinet member out

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Trump-Epstein+Parlay.pdf

Trump-Epstein Parlay

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump publicly claims that any of the moon landings were faked by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The claim must come directly from Trump via a verified social media account, official public statement, or during a recorded interview, speech, or rally. Indirect remarks, jokes, or quotes taken out of context will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be statements made by Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used to confirm the legitimacy of such statements.

Trump says Moon Landing faked in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration announces a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement within this market’s timeframe from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to nominate a specific individual for Chair of the Federal Reserve will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs. 

Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.

A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, made before the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, will immediately resolve this market to “Yes”. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from Donald Trump or the Trump administration and official information from the U.S. Senate.

Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

The 2026 midterm elections for the US House of Representatives is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Republicans hold fewer seats in the House of Representatives for any state that Trump won in the 2024 US presidential election as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Initial seat counts will be based on the composition of the US House of Representatives as of November 2, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

This market's resolution will be solely based on the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives for any state won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election. The loss of particular district seats will not count towards a resolution for this market; only the total number of seats held by the Republican Party in a given state will be considered. (e.g. The loss of a particular district's seat by the Republican Party followed by the gain of another district's seat would not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".)

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

For the purposes of this market, states won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election include Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. This list is determined by the winner of the electoral votes for each state in the 2024 Presidential election. In states such as Maine and Nebraska, where electoral votes are allocated separately by congressional districts as well as to the statewide winner, only the electoral votes allocated to the statewide winner are considered.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses, or announces that he will vote for, JD Vance for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

If Donald Trump announces that he will vote for another candidate or endorses another candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?

The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

This market will resolve according to the next person Donald Trump appoints to the National Security Advisor position by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on Trump's first announcement - if Trump announces another person to this position first, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

This market refers to the first permanent National Security Advisor following Mike Waltz's departure from the role; any acting advisor or otherwise temporary advisor will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Fred Fleitz be next National Security Advisor?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks Benjamin Netanyahu personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

This includes calling Netanyahu weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, or using other derogatory language. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.

Any public statement made by Trump qualifies.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump publicly disparage Netanyahu by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual is formally charged or criminally indicted for insider trading related to a tariff policy announcement made during the second Trump administration between July 11 and December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will anyone be charged for insider trading Trump tariff announcements?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between November 19, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Polymarket" by December 31?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the listed state between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial territory of the listed state. Whether or not Trump enters the state’s airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Donald Trump visit Florida in 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

Trump impeached by end of 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Trump says Fuck, Fucking, or Fucked 
- House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution
- Trump declares another national emergency

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

The full rules for this market can be found here: 
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Panick+in+the+White+House.pdf

Panick in the White House

The 2026 midterm elections for the US Senate is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Republicans hold fewer seats in the Senate for any state that Trump won in the 2024 US presidential election as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Initial seat counts will be based on the composition of the US Senate as of November 2, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

This market's resolution will be solely based on the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate for any state won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election. The loss of particular seat will not count towards a resolution for this market; only the total number of seats held by the Republican Party in a given state will be considered. (e.g. The loss of one of a state's seats by the Republican Party followed by the gain of the other seat would not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".)

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

For the purposes of this market, states won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election include Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. This list is determined by the winner of the electoral votes for each state in the 2024 Presidential election. In states such as Maine and Nebraska, where electoral votes are allocated separately by congressional districts as well as to the statewide winner, only the electoral votes allocated to the statewide winner are considered.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between December 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count towards the resolution of this market.

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Knucklehead" or "Numbskull" or "Numskull" in December?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump visit China by April 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump and Ali Khamenei speak directly to one another between June 26, 7:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any conversation that occurs directly between Donald Trump and Ali Khamenei will qualify, regardless of whether it is over the phone, videocall, or in person. The conversation must be voice-based, not text-based.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the governments of Iran and the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump x Khamenei talk in 2025? 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual announces that they are running for President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual  will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Rand Paul announce a presidential run before 2027?

This market will resolve according to the candidate Bernie Sanders announces that he will vote for or endorses for the listed election.

If Bernie Sanders does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Bernie Sanders or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Bernie Sanders' endorsement.

Will Bernie endorse Antonio Delgado for NY-Gov by Nov 2 2026 ET?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is interviewed by Tucker Carlson between November 17, 2025 and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An interview is defined as a scheduled, recorded conversation where Donald Trump answers questions posed by Tucker Carlson. Press conferences or media briefings held by the White House with Carlson in attendance will not count.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a credible consensus of reporting that Donald Trump has recorded an interview with Tucker Carlson before February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, even if that interview is not yet released.

The resolution source for this market will be publicly available video footage of the interview; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Tucker Carlson interview Trump by February 28?

This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 

Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s Truth Social post published on the morning of December 15, 2025, regarding the passing of Rob Reiner (https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/115724141568860081) is deleted at any point between this market’s creation and December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying deletion includes the post being removed for any duration, regardless of whether it is later reposted.

Edits to the post will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be Donald Trump’s official Truth Social account; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump remove his Rob Reiner post?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump golfs on over 25% of days between January 20 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to https://trumpgolftrack.com as of January 2, 2026, 12:00 PM. However, definitive photo or video evidence confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to supplement the tally if the trumpgolftrack.com tally is incomplete. 

 


Will Trump spend >25% of 2025 presidency golfing?

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

What will Trump say in first speech after AP calls the election?

Kamala
$130,950 Vol.
No

Rig/Rigged
$53,723 Vol.
No

Fraud
$62,277 Vol.
Yes

MAGA
$160,784 Vol.
Yes

God
$114,732 Vol.
No

Border
$137,596 Vol.
Yes

Crypto/Bitcoin
$654,855 Vol.
No

Elon
$161,220 Vol.
Yes

Illegal
$25,602 Vol.
No

Pennsylvania
$181,816 Vol.
Yes

Steal/Stole
$35,554 Vol.
No

We Won
$39,717 Vol.
Yes

Mail-in
$26,262 Vol.
No

Victory 3+ times
$29,725 Vol.
No

America 5+ times
$66,384 Vol.
No

Market Context

What will Trump say in first speech after AP calls the election?

Rules

What will Trump say in first speech after AP calls the election?

Market Context

What will Trump say in first speech after AP calls the election?

About

Related

What will Trump say in first speech after AP calls the election?

Kamala $130,950 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Rig/Rigged$53,723 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Fraud$62,277 Vol.Yescircle check

MAGA$160,784 Vol.Yescircle check

God$114,732 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Border$137,596 Vol.Yescircle check

Crypto/Bitcoin$654,855 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Elon$161,220 Vol.Yescircle check

Illegal$25,602 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Pennsylvania$181,816 Vol.Yescircle check

Steal/Stole$35,554 Vol.Nocircle xmark

We Won $39,717 Vol.Yescircle check

Mail-in$26,262 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Victory 3+ times$29,725 Vol.Nocircle xmark

America 5+ times$66,384 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Market Context

What will Trump say in first speech after AP calls the election?

Rules

What will Trump say in first speech after AP calls the election?

Market Context

What will Trump say in first speech after AP calls the election?

About

Related

Kamala
$130,950 Vol.
No

Rig/Rigged
$53,723 Vol.
No

Fraud
$62,277 Vol.
Yes

MAGA
$160,784 Vol.
Yes

God
$114,732 Vol.
No

Border
$137,596 Vol.
Yes

Crypto/Bitcoin
$654,855 Vol.
No

Elon
$161,220 Vol.
Yes

Illegal
$25,602 Vol.
No

Pennsylvania
$181,816 Vol.
Yes

Steal/Stole
$35,554 Vol.
No

We Won
$39,717 Vol.
Yes

Mail-in
$26,262 Vol.
No

Victory 3+ times
$29,725 Vol.
No

America 5+ times
$66,384 Vol.
No