Name: What will Trump say during Henderson, NV rally?
Start: 2024-10-28T23:51:14.327227Z
End: 2024-10-31T12:00:00Z

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This is a market on predicting terms used by Trump during his rally in Henderson, Nevada scheduled for October 31, 2024.


Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 31 in Henderson, Nevada (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-henderson-nv).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "border" 20 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "border" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a political boundary between nations.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 31, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Border 20+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 31 in Henderson, Nevada (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-henderson-nv).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "border" 30 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "border" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a political boundary between nations.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 31, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Border 30+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 31 in Henderson, Nevada (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-henderson-nv).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Nevada" 25 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Nevada" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the US state.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 31, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Nevada 25+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 31 in Henderson, Nevada (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-henderson-nv).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "tax" 20 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "tax" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a compulsory financial charge imposed by a government authority.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 31, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Tax 20+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 31 in Henderson, Nevada (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-henderson-nv).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "tariff" 5 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "tariff" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a tax or duty to be paid on a particular class of imports or exports.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 31, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Tariff 5+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 31 in Henderson, Nevada (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-henderson-nv).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "American dream" 5 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 31, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

American dream 5+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 31 in Henderson, Nevada (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-henderson-nv).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Sleepy Joe" or "Crooked Joe" 5 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 31, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Sleepy/Crooked Joe 5+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 31 in Henderson, Nevada (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-henderson-nv).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "god" 5 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "god" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a superhuman being or spirit worshiped as having power over nature or human fortunes; a deity.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 31, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

God 5+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 31 in Henderson, Nevada (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-henderson-nv).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "MAGA" or "make America great again" 4 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "MAGA" is part of the compound word and references the statement "make America great again".

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 31, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

MAGA 4+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 31 in Henderson, Nevada (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-henderson-nv).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "teleprompter" 3 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "teleprompter" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a device used to project a speaker's script onto a transparent panel in front of a television camera lens in such a way that the text remains hidden from the camera.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 31, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Teleprompter 3+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 31 in Henderson, Nevada (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-henderson-nv).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Pocahontas" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Pocahontas" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to either the Powhatan woman who married John Rolfe, or American politician Elizabeth Warren.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 31, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Pocahontas

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 31 in Henderson, Nevada (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-henderson-nv).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "crypto" or "Bitcoin" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to decentralized cryptocurrency (e.g. "cryptocurrency-related" counts).

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 31, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Crypto/Bitcoin

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 31 in Henderson, Nevada (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-henderson-nv).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "missile defense shield" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 31, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Missile Defense Shield

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 31 in Henderson, Nevada (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-henderson-nv).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "McDonald's" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "McDonald's" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the international fast food chain.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 31, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

McDonald's

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 31 in Henderson, Nevada (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-henderson-nv).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "tampon" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "tampon" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the feminine hygiene product.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 31, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Tampon

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 31 in Henderson, Nevada (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-henderson-nv).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "women's sports", "Woman's sports" or "Women sports" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 31, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Women's Sports

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 31 in Henderson, Nevada (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-henderson-nv).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Springfield" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Springfield" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the city US Springfield, Ohio.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 31, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Springfield

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 31 in Henderson, Nevada (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-henderson-nv).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Halloween" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Halloween" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the holiday celebrated on October 31.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 31, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Halloween

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 31 in Henderson, Nevada (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-henderson-nv).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "witch" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "witch" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a person thought to have magic powers, especially evil ones, popularly depicted as a woman wearing a black cloak and pointed hat and flying on a broomstick.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 31, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Witch

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 31 in Henderson, Nevada (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-henderson-nv).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "snake" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "witch" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a long limbless reptile which has no eyelids, a short tail, and jaws that are capable of considerable extension, or a treacherous or deceitful person.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 31, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Snake

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 31 in Henderson, Nevada (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-henderson-nv).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "IQ" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "IQ" is part of the compound word and references the meaning "intelligence quotient".

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 31, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 31 in Henderson, Nevada (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-henderson-nv).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Melania" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Melania" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to Melania Trump, Donald's wife.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 31, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Melania

What will Trump say during Henderson, NV rally?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump announces that he is running for a third term as US President by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Trump must definitively state his intent to run (e.g., "I am running for a third term" or equivalent unambiguous language); vague comments, speculative or contingent remarks or jokes will not suffice. 

Past statements such his March 30 NBC phone interview where he stated "There are methods which you could do it, as you know... A lot of people want me to do it." or his November 13, 2024, where he stated "I suspect I won’t be running again unless you say, ‘He’s so good we’ve got to figure something else out.’" would NOT qualify. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Donald Trump (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trump announce run for 3rd term?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses, or announces that he will vote for, JD Vance for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

If Donald Trump announces that he will vote for another candidate or endorses another candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses, or announces that he will vote for, any candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

Will Trump endorse any candidate for President before 2027?

This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.

If Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.

Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?

Donald Trump is set to make an appearance at the 48th Annual Kennedy Center Honors, which is scheduled to air on December 23, 2025 (https://www.npr.org/2025/12/05/nx-s1-5607173/kennedy-center-honors-trump).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about Donald Trump's scheduled appearance at the Kennedy Center Honors event on December 7, 2025. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by December 23, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "Trump" at the Kennedy Center Honors event?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the listed state between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial territory of the listed state. Whether or not Trump enters the state’s airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Donald Trump visit Florida in 2026?

On September 1, 2025, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration may declare a national housing emergency this fall to address high housing costs.(see: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/bessent-says-trump-administration-will-tackle-high-housing-costs-with-new-2025-09-01/)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act (NEA) primarily addressing housing by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A national emergency must actually be declared for this market to resolve to "Yes" - it will not be enough for Trump to announce an intention to declare a national emergency.

This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration.

Will Trump announce a national housing emergency in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump publicly claims that any of the moon landings were faked by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The claim must come directly from Trump via a verified social media account, official public statement, or during a recorded interview, speech, or rally. Indirect remarks, jokes, or quotes taken out of context will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be statements made by Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used to confirm the legitimacy of such statements.

Trump says Moon Landing faked in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between November 19, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Polymarket" by December 31?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump visit China by April 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vice President JD Vance announces that he is running for President in the 2028 U.S. presidential election by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Vance must definitively state his intent to run (e.g., "I am running for President" or equivalent unambiguous language); vague comments, speculative or contingent remarks or jokes will not suffice.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by JD Vance (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will JD Vance announce Presidential run in 2025?

The 2026 midterm elections for the US House of Representatives is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Republicans hold fewer seats in the House of Representatives for any state that Trump won in the 2024 US presidential election as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Initial seat counts will be based on the composition of the US House of Representatives as of November 2, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

This market's resolution will be solely based on the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives for any state won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election. The loss of particular district seats will not count towards a resolution for this market; only the total number of seats held by the Republican Party in a given state will be considered. (e.g. The loss of a particular district's seat by the Republican Party followed by the gain of another district's seat would not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".)

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

For the purposes of this market, states won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election include Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. This list is determined by the winner of the electoral votes for each state in the 2024 Presidential election. In states such as Maine and Nebraska, where electoral votes are allocated separately by congressional districts as well as to the statewide winner, only the electoral votes allocated to the statewide winner are considered.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Evidence Trump went to Epstein's Island made public
- Trump out as President
- Trump impeached
- Any Trump cabinet member out

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Trump-Epstein+Parlay.pdf

Trump-Epstein Parlay

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is interviewed by Tucker Carlson between November 17, 2025 and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An interview is defined as a scheduled, recorded conversation where Donald Trump answers questions posed by Tucker Carlson. Press conferences or media briefings held by the White House with Carlson in attendance will not count.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a credible consensus of reporting that Donald Trump has recorded an interview with Tucker Carlson before February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, even if that interview is not yet released.

The resolution source for this market will be publicly available video footage of the interview; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Tucker Carlson interview Trump by February 28?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.

This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.

Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2025?

Trump's Treasury Secretary pick Scott Bessent has floated the idea of Trump naming a successor to Jerome Powell to serve as a "shadow chair", prior to the end of Powell's term, scheduled for May 2026. (see: https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/business/money-report/fed-chair-jerome-powell-can-serve-remainder-of-term-says-trumps-treasury-pick-bessent/3788991/).

This market will resolve to according the individual Donald Trump announces as his pick for the next Federal Reserve Chair. If Donald Trump does not announce his pick for the next Federal Reserve Chair by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No announcement by December 31".  

The resolution source for this market will be official information form Donald Trump or one of his official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin meet in Hungary at any time by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A meeting is defined as any encounter where Trump and Putin are both present and interact with each other in person.

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Trump x Putin Meeting in Hungary by Dec 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) buys any amount of $TRUMP (https://solscan.io/token/6p6xgHyF7AeE6TZkSmFsko444wqoP15icUSqi2jfGiPN), either directly or through a subsidiary, between July 21, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be announcements through official information from TMTG, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump Media buy $TRUMP in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act (NEA) between October 1, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A national emergency must actually be declared for this market to resolve to "Yes" - it will not be enough for Trump to announce an intention to declare a national emergency.

This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration.

Trump declares another national emergency by December 31?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between this market’s creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- Elon Musk rejoins Trump Administration
- Trump deports Elon Musk
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here: 
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Nothing+Ever+Happens+Elon+Musk+Edition.pdf

Nothing Ever Happens: Elon Edition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump golfs on over 25% of days between January 20 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to https://trumpgolftrack.com as of January 2, 2026, 12:00 PM. However, definitive photo or video evidence confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to supplement the tally if the trumpgolftrack.com tally is incomplete. 

 


Will Trump spend >25% of 2025 presidency golfing?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, in which he insults, mocks, or attacks Nicholas J. Fuentes personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes calling Nicholas J. Fuentes weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “Nick isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to Nicholas J. Fuentes’s professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “Nick isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.

A direct reference will qualify even if Nicholas J. Fuentes is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that he is the subject.

Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.

Will Trump disparage Nick Fuentes by December 31?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits North Korea between August 4 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Trump says Fuck, Fucking, or Fucked 
- House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution
- Trump declares another national emergency

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

The full rules for this market can be found here: 
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Panick+in+the+White+House.pdf

Panick in the White House

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) buys any amount of Ethereum, either directly or through a subsidiary, between July 21, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be announcements through official information from TMTG, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump Media buy Ethereum in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between December 22, 2025, 12:00 AM ET and December 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "November 5th" this week? (December 22 - 28)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump meets with Benjamin Netanyahu between November 18 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump meet with Netanyahu again before 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk serves any time in custody in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between June 5, and  December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump jail Elon Musk?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) announces that it has acquired more Bitcoin between July 24 11:00 ET, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from TMTG, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


What will Trump say during Henderson, NV rally?

Halloween
$33,973 Vol.
No

IQ
$22,031 Vol.
Yes

Border 20+ times
$28,014 Vol.
Yes

Border 30+ times
$21,045 Vol.
No

Nevada 25+ times
$12,288 Vol.
No

Tax 20+ times
$26,886 Vol.
No

Tariff 5+ times
$11,331 Vol.
No

American dream 5+ times
$7,574 Vol.
No

Sleepy/Crooked Joe 5+ times
$11,847 Vol.
No

God 5+ times
$13,269 Vol.
No

MAGA 4+ times
$13,759 Vol.
Yes

Teleprompter 3+ times
$8,492 Vol.
No

Pocahontas
$22,875 Vol.
Yes

Crypto/Bitcoin
$150,758 Vol.
No

Missile Defense Shield
$15,906 Vol.
Yes

McDonald's
$18,433 Vol.
Yes

Tampon
$6,015 Vol.
No

Women's Sports
$20,183 Vol.
Yes

Springfield
$1,711 Vol.
No

Witch
$2,909 Vol.
No

Snake
$2,528 Vol.
No

Melania
$4,201 Vol.
No

Market Context

What will Trump say during Henderson, NV rally?

Rules

What will Trump say during Henderson, NV rally?

Market Context

What will Trump say during Henderson, NV rally?

About

Related

What will Trump say during Henderson, NV rally?

Halloween$33,973 Vol.Nocircle xmark

IQ$22,031 Vol.Yescircle check

Border 20+ times$28,014 Vol.Yescircle check

Border 30+ times$21,045 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Nevada 25+ times$12,288 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Tax 20+ times$26,886 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Tariff 5+ times$11,331 Vol.Nocircle xmark

American dream 5+ times$7,574 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Sleepy/Crooked Joe 5+ times$11,847 Vol.Nocircle xmark

God 5+ times$13,269 Vol.Nocircle xmark

MAGA 4+ times$13,759 Vol.Yescircle check

Teleprompter 3+ times$8,492 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Pocahontas$22,875 Vol.Yescircle check

Crypto/Bitcoin$150,758 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Missile Defense Shield$15,906 Vol.Yescircle check

McDonald's$18,433 Vol.Yescircle check

Tampon$6,015 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Women's Sports$20,183 Vol.Yescircle check

Springfield$1,711 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Witch$2,909 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Snake$2,528 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Melania$4,201 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Market Context

What will Trump say during Henderson, NV rally?

Rules

What will Trump say during Henderson, NV rally?

Market Context

What will Trump say during Henderson, NV rally?

About

Related

Halloween
$33,973 Vol.
No

IQ
$22,031 Vol.
Yes

Border 20+ times
$28,014 Vol.
Yes

Border 30+ times
$21,045 Vol.
No

Nevada 25+ times
$12,288 Vol.
No

Tax 20+ times
$26,886 Vol.
No

Tariff 5+ times
$11,331 Vol.
No

American dream 5+ times
$7,574 Vol.
No

Sleepy/Crooked Joe 5+ times
$11,847 Vol.
No

God 5+ times
$13,269 Vol.
No

MAGA 4+ times
$13,759 Vol.
Yes

Teleprompter 3+ times
$8,492 Vol.
No

Pocahontas
$22,875 Vol.
Yes

Crypto/Bitcoin
$150,758 Vol.
No

Missile Defense Shield
$15,906 Vol.
Yes

McDonald's
$18,433 Vol.
Yes

Tampon
$6,015 Vol.
No

Women's Sports
$20,183 Vol.
Yes

Springfield
$1,711 Vol.
No

Witch
$2,909 Vol.
No

Snake
$2,528 Vol.
No

Melania
$4,201 Vol.
No