Name: What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
Start: 2026-01-12T17:47:04.954225Z
End: 2026-12-09T00:00:00Z

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The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.

This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.

The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).

4.25%

2.25%

3.25%

3.75%

3.0%

2.5%

2.75%

3.5%

4.0%

≥ 4.5%

≤1.0%

1.25 1.5%

1.75%

2.0%

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total Pump.fun buybacks are equal to or greater than $500M by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

The primary resolution source for this market will be the buyback tracker available at https://fees.pump.fun/, specifically “Total $PUMP Purchases (USD)”.

Will pump.fun buybacks hit $500M by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Hyperliquid is flipped in open interest by another perpetual DEX at any point in 2026 (ET). Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market will be DeFiLlama open interest data (https://defillama.com/open-interest).

If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on other reliable crypto data sources.

Hyperliquid open interest flipped in 2026?

If the Bill Ackman Index performs better than the S&P 500 Index in January 2026, this market will resolve to “Ackman”. If the S&P 500 Index performs better than the Bill Ackman Index in January 2026, this market will resolve to “S&P”. 

The performance of each index will be the 1-month trailing percentage return of the index for the final trading day of the specified month.

The resolution source for the Bill Ackman Index ("Ackman") is: https://web.dubapp.com/portfolios/index/559452008356167680

Information from the "Performance" table for the Bill Ackman Index, specifically the 1-month trailing percentage return figures found under "1M", will be used to resolve this market, once information is finalized for the final day of the specified month.

If the Bill Ackman Index’s 1-month trailing percentage return figure for the last trading day of the specified month is not published by the time that the figure for the first trading day of the next month is published, this market will resolve based on the most recent 1-month trailing percentage return figure published by the specified resolution source for a day prior to the last trading day of the specified month.

The resolution source for S&P 500 ("S&P") is: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices

Information from the "Historical Prices" table for the S&P 500 will be used to resolve this market. The S&P 500’s 1-month trailing percentage return will be calculated as the percentage change between the S&P 500’s closing price on the final trading day of the specified month and its closing price on the same calendar day of the previous month. If the relevant day in the previous month was not a trading day, the most recent trading day before this day will be used. If the same calendar day does not exist in the previous month, the return will be calculated using the final trading day of the previous month. Note that all relevant figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.

If either of the relevant days lack a specified closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), this market will use the last valid historical price offered by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price for that day.

If either of the relevant trading days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price or 1-month return figure published for each relevant index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If both indices perform exactly the same over this market’s timeframe, this market will resolve 50-50.

Updates to historical prices or figures displayed by any of the indices subsequent to this market's resolution will not be considered. This market will resolve according to the methodologies utilized by the specified indices as of the resolution time of this market, regardless of whether those methodologies are later updated.

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

≤1.0%
$734 Vol.
2%

1.25
$812 Vol.
2%

1.5%
$925 Vol.
3%

1.75%
$411 Vol.
2%

2.0%
$475 Vol.
2%

2.25%
$389 Vol.
3%

2.5%
$705 Vol.
5%

2.75%
$360 Vol.
6%

3.0%
$400 Vol.
13%

3.25%
$443 Vol.
25%

3.5%
$446 Vol.
21%

3.75%
$537 Vol.
8%

4.0%
$617 Vol.
5%

4.25%
$593 Vol.
2%

≥ 4.5%
$548 Vol.
2%

Market Context

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

Rules

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

Market Context

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

About

Related

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

≤1.0%$734 Vol.2%buy Yes2.1¢buy No98.5¢

1.25$812 Vol.2%buy Yes2.9¢buy No98.4¢

1.5%$925 Vol.3%buy Yes3.2¢buy No97.5¢

1.75%$411 Vol.2%buy Yes2.7¢buy No99.0¢

2.0%$475 Vol.2%buy Yes3.0¢buy No99.0¢

2.25%$389 Vol.3%buy Yes2.7¢buy No97.7¢

2.5%$705 Vol.5%buy Yes4.8¢buy No95.8¢

2.75%$360 Vol.6%buy Yes7¢buy No95¢

3.0%$400 Vol.13%buy Yes13¢buy No88¢

3.25%$443 Vol.25%buy Yes25¢buy No76¢

3.5%$446 Vol.21%buy Yes21¢buy No80¢

3.75%$537 Vol.8%buy Yes8¢buy No93¢

4.0%$617 Vol.5%buy Yes5.9¢buy No95.0¢

4.25%$593 Vol.2%buy Yes2.6¢buy No99.2¢

≥ 4.5%$548 Vol.2%buy Yes2.6¢buy No99.3¢

Market Context

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

Rules

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

Market Context

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

About

Related

≤1.0%
$734 Vol.
2%

1.25
$812 Vol.
2%

1.5%
$925 Vol.
3%

1.75%
$411 Vol.
2%

2.0%
$475 Vol.
2%

2.25%
$389 Vol.
3%

2.5%
$705 Vol.
5%

2.75%
$360 Vol.
6%

3.0%
$400 Vol.
13%

3.25%
$443 Vol.
25%

3.5%
$446 Vol.
21%

3.75%
$537 Vol.
8%

4.0%
$617 Vol.
5%

4.25%
$593 Vol.
2%

≥ 4.5%
$548 Vol.
2%