Bayern München holds a 3-2 aggregate lead after Pernille Harder's brace and Momoko Tanikawa's late winner secured a resilient away victory in the UEFA Women's Champions League quarter-final first leg at Old Trafford, boosting trader consensus to 63.5% implied probability for a home win in the second leg. The German champions benefit from Allianz Arena home advantage, superior recent form in the Bundesliga, and Harder's clinical finishing, while Manchester United WFC faces mounting challenges with Ella Toone sidelined by hip injury, Julia Zigiotti Olme suspended after five yellows, and key absences including Ellen Wangerheim, Leah Galton, and Dominique Janssen. United's injury-hit squad tempers upset potential at 16%, with draw pricing at 18.5% reflecting their need to attack but Bayern's defensive solidity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

If FC Bayern München wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No".
This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Market Opened: Mar 4, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.uefa.com/womenschampionsleague/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...

If FC Bayern München wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No".
This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Market Opened: Mar 4, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.uefa.com/womenschampionsleague/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Bayern München holds a 3-2 aggregate lead after Pernille Harder's brace and Momoko Tanikawa's late winner secured a resilient away victory in the UEFA Women's Champions League quarter-final first leg at Old Trafford, boosting trader consensus to 63.5% implied probability for a home win in the second leg. The German champions benefit from Allianz Arena home advantage, superior recent form in the Bundesliga, and Harder's clinical finishing, while Manchester United WFC faces mounting challenges with Ella Toone sidelined by hip injury, Julia Zigiotti Olme suspended after five yellows, and key absences including Ellen Wangerheim, Leah Galton, and Dominique Janssen. United's injury-hit squad tempers upset potential at 16%, with draw pricing at 18.5% reflecting their need to attack but Bayern's defensive solidity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions