Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Dan Hooker at 49.5% implied probability to face Max Holloway next, with Benoit Saint Denis a razor-close 43.0%, reflecting intense speculation following Holloway's knockout loss to Ilia Topuria at UFC 308 in late October. Hooker's recent decision win over Jalin Turner at UFC 305 and his public callout—coupled with a potential lightweight main event slot at UFC 312 in Sydney, Australia, leveraging their shared Oceania roots—have propelled him ahead, while Saint Denis's momentum from submitting Renato Moicano has kept him neck-and-neck amid stylistic striker-vs-grappler intrigue. Lower volumes on McGregor stem from his ongoing injury recovery and withdrawal history, underscoring the tight race driven by unconfirmed matchmaking rumors and contender availability in the 155-pound division.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedDan Hooker 29%
Islam Makhachev 27%
Arman Tsarukyan 13%
Conor McGregor 13%
$20,502 Vol.
$20,502 Vol.
Dan Hooker
29%
Islam Makhachev
27%
Arman Tsarukyan
13%
Conor McGregor
21%
Alexander Volkanovski
12%
Maurício Ruffy
10%
Paddy Pimblett
9%
Mateusz Gamrot
9%
Justin Gaethje
6%
Ilia Topuria
4%
Benoît Saint Denis
39%
Dan Hooker 29%
Islam Makhachev 27%
Arman Tsarukyan 13%
Conor McGregor 13%
$20,502 Vol.
$20,502 Vol.
Dan Hooker
29%
Islam Makhachev
27%
Arman Tsarukyan
13%
Conor McGregor
21%
Alexander Volkanovski
12%
Maurício Ruffy
10%
Paddy Pimblett
9%
Mateusz Gamrot
9%
Justin Gaethje
6%
Ilia Topuria
4%
Benoît Saint Denis
39%
Resolution for this market will be based on the next UFC fighter that Max Holloway is officially announced to fight, regardless of whether the fight ends up taking place.
Only official announcements from the UFC, which include a scheduled date for the bout, will count. Announcements with no date or which do not confirm that the fight is official, speculation, or other unofficial announcements will not count.
If Max Holloway is officially announced to fight any non-listed fighter or no qualifying announcement is made by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Market Opened: Mar 6, 2026, 7:30 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Dan Hooker at 49.5% implied probability to face Max Holloway next, with Benoit Saint Denis a razor-close 43.0%, reflecting intense speculation following Holloway's knockout loss to Ilia Topuria at UFC 308 in late October. Hooker's recent decision win over Jalin Turner at UFC 305 and his public callout—coupled with a potential lightweight main event slot at UFC 312 in Sydney, Australia, leveraging their shared Oceania roots—have propelled him ahead, while Saint Denis's momentum from submitting Renato Moicano has kept him neck-and-neck amid stylistic striker-vs-grappler intrigue. Lower volumes on McGregor stem from his ongoing injury recovery and withdrawal history, underscoring the tight race driven by unconfirmed matchmaking rumors and contender availability in the 155-pound division.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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