Market icon

Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?

$19,919,327 Vol.

Apr 29, 2025
Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Bankman-Fried, receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether Sam Bankman-Fried is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$19,919,327
End Date
Apr 29, 2025
Created At
Nov 6, 2024, 11:19 AM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Bankman-Fried, receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether Sam Bankman-Fried is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 22 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "January 6 protestor" at 100%, followed by "Ross Ulbricht" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?" has generated $19.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 6, 2024. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?," browse the 22 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?" is "January 6 protestor" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Ross Ulbricht" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Market icon

Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?

$19,919,327 Vol.

Polymarket
Market icon

Sam Bankman-Fried

$2,009,458 Vol.

No

Market icon

Eric Adams

$993,621 Vol.

No

Market icon

Steve Bannon

$805,284 Vol.

No

Market icon

Roger Ver

$1,466,254 Vol.

No

Market icon

Julian Assange

$564,823 Vol.

No

Market icon

Himself

$1,087,167 Vol.

No

Market icon

January 6 protestor

$756,779 Vol.

Yes

Market icon

Ross Ulbricht

$6,087,387 Vol.

Yes

Market icon

Diddy

$1,401,581 Vol.

No

Market icon

Elon Musk

$568,855 Vol.

No

Market icon

Hunter Biden

$1,312,596 Vol.

No

Market icon

Young Thug

$115,127 Vol.

No

Market icon

Edward Snowden

$1,889,164 Vol.

No

Market icon

Matt Gaetz

$236,254 Vol.

No

Market icon

Daniel Penny

$67,404 Vol.

No

Market icon

Rudy Giuliani

$199,945 Vol.

No

Market icon

Roger Stone

$32,880 Vol.

No

Market icon

Bob Menendez

$66,747 Vol.

No

Market icon

Rod Blagojevich

$270 Vol.

Yes

Market icon

Joe Exotic "The Tiger King"

$19,793 Vol.

No

Market icon

Derek Chauvin

$133,067 Vol.

No

Market icon

CZ

$104,870 Vol.

No

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 22 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "January 6 protestor" at 100%, followed by "Ross Ulbricht" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?" has generated $19.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 6, 2024. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?," browse the 22 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?" is "January 6 protestor" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Ross Ulbricht" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.