Trump deploys National Guard to a blue city by September 15?
$88,211 Vol.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or his administration takes a formal action or makes an official announcement directing the deployment of National Guard troops to a major 'Blue city' by September 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No.”
Qualifying cities include any U.S. city with a population ≥ 300,000 based on the latest U.S. Census Bureau which is in a state won by Kamala Harris in the 2025 presidential election (Washington, D.C. and U.S. territories are not states and do not qualify).
A qualifying announcement or action will count, regardless of if/when the deployment actually occurs, or if the deployment is delayed, suspended, or subsequently blocked by judicial or other actions.
Qualifying actions include but are not limited to:
- A Presidential action (e.g., Executive Order, Presidential Memorandum) that directs or announces National Guard deployment to the listed city .
- An official White House/DoD/National Guard Bureau press release, fact sheet, or order explicitly stating that National Guard troops will be deployed to the listed city.
- A Secretary of Defense or NGB directive/order that calls up or assigns National Guard forces to the listed city, including under Title 32 (state control with federal funding) or Title 10 (federalized).
- An official federal announcement that specific state Guard units (including the listed city National Guard or out-of-state Guard) are being sent to the listed city.
Non-qualifying actions include:
- Informal announcements/social media posts which do not constitute a formal policy announcement
- Ambiguous remarks, “we’re considering it,” broad statements like “ready to go anywhere,” or contingent plans without a clear directive to the listed city.
- Generic posture changes (e.g., standing up quick-reaction forces “nationwide”) that do not explicitly name the listed city as a deployment location.
- A state-only activation by the listed city's state Governor without any official Trump administration action or announcement about sending the Guard to the listed city.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Qualifying cities include any U.S. city with a population ≥ 300,000 based on the latest U.S. Census Bureau which is in a state won by Kamala Harris in the 2025 presidential election (Washington, D.C. and U.S. territories are not states and do not qualify).
A qualifying announcement or action will count, regardless of if/when the deployment actually occurs, or if the deployment is delayed, suspended, or subsequently blocked by judicial or other actions.
Qualifying actions include but are not limited to:
- A Presidential action (e.g., Executive Order, Presidential Memorandum) that directs or announces National Guard deployment to the listed city .
- An official White House/DoD/National Guard Bureau press release, fact sheet, or order explicitly stating that National Guard troops will be deployed to the listed city.
- A Secretary of Defense or NGB directive/order that calls up or assigns National Guard forces to the listed city, including under Title 32 (state control with federal funding) or Title 10 (federalized).
- An official federal announcement that specific state Guard units (including the listed city National Guard or out-of-state Guard) are being sent to the listed city.
Non-qualifying actions include:
- Informal announcements/social media posts which do not constitute a formal policy announcement
- Ambiguous remarks, “we’re considering it,” broad statements like “ready to go anywhere,” or contingent plans without a clear directive to the listed city.
- Generic posture changes (e.g., standing up quick-reaction forces “nationwide”) that do not explicitly name the listed city as a deployment location.
- A state-only activation by the listed city's state Governor without any official Trump administration action or announcement about sending the Guard to the listed city.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Created At: Aug 26, 2025, 12:31 AM UTC
Volume
$88,211End Date
Sep 15, 2025Created At
Aug 26, 2025, 12:31 AM UTCResolver
0x157Ce2d67...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
$88,211 Vol.
Trump deploys National Guard to a blue city by September 15?
About
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or his administration takes a formal action or makes an official announcement directing the deployment of National Guard troops to a major 'Blue city' by September 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No.”
Qualifying cities include any U.S. city with a population ≥ 300,000 based on the latest U.S. Census Bureau which is in a state won by Kamala Harris in the 2025 presidential election (Washington, D.C. and U.S. territories are not states and do not qualify).
A qualifying announcement or action will count, regardless of if/when the deployment actually occurs, or if the deployment is delayed, suspended, or subsequently blocked by judicial or other actions.
Qualifying actions include but are not limited to:
- A Presidential action (e.g., Executive Order, Presidential Memorandum) that directs or announces National Guard deployment to the listed city .
- An official White House/DoD/National Guard Bureau press release, fact sheet, or order explicitly stating that National Guard troops will be deployed to the listed city.
- A Secretary of Defense or NGB directive/order that calls up or assigns National Guard forces to the listed city, including under Title 32 (state control with federal funding) or Title 10 (federalized).
- An official federal announcement that specific state Guard units (including the listed city National Guard or out-of-state Guard) are being sent to the listed city.
Non-qualifying actions include:
- Informal announcements/social media posts which do not constitute a formal policy announcement
- Ambiguous remarks, “we’re considering it,” broad statements like “ready to go anywhere,” or contingent plans without a clear directive to the listed city.
- Generic posture changes (e.g., standing up quick-reaction forces “nationwide”) that do not explicitly name the listed city as a deployment location.
- A state-only activation by the listed city's state Governor without any official Trump administration action or announcement about sending the Guard to the listed city.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Qualifying cities include any U.S. city with a population ≥ 300,000 based on the latest U.S. Census Bureau which is in a state won by Kamala Harris in the 2025 presidential election (Washington, D.C. and U.S. territories are not states and do not qualify).
A qualifying announcement or action will count, regardless of if/when the deployment actually occurs, or if the deployment is delayed, suspended, or subsequently blocked by judicial or other actions.
Qualifying actions include but are not limited to:
- A Presidential action (e.g., Executive Order, Presidential Memorandum) that directs or announces National Guard deployment to the listed city .
- An official White House/DoD/National Guard Bureau press release, fact sheet, or order explicitly stating that National Guard troops will be deployed to the listed city.
- A Secretary of Defense or NGB directive/order that calls up or assigns National Guard forces to the listed city, including under Title 32 (state control with federal funding) or Title 10 (federalized).
- An official federal announcement that specific state Guard units (including the listed city National Guard or out-of-state Guard) are being sent to the listed city.
Non-qualifying actions include:
- Informal announcements/social media posts which do not constitute a formal policy announcement
- Ambiguous remarks, “we’re considering it,” broad statements like “ready to go anywhere,” or contingent plans without a clear directive to the listed city.
- Generic posture changes (e.g., standing up quick-reaction forces “nationwide”) that do not explicitly name the listed city as a deployment location.
- A state-only activation by the listed city's state Governor without any official Trump administration action or announcement about sending the Guard to the listed city.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$88,211End Date
Sep 15, 2025Created At
Aug 26, 2025, 12:31 AM UTCResolver
0x157Ce2d67...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
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